Winter Storm in Oklahoma, February 11 to 12, 2024

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1036 PM CST Sun Feb 11 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(The rest of tonight)
Issued at 838 PM CST Sun Feb 11 2024

Bands of mostly rain continue to rotate across eastern
Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas this evening. There have
been reports of rain mixing with or changing to snow/sleet
as well. Precipitation will continue to be mainly be concentrated
in a southwest to northeast band from central Oklahoma into
northwest Arkansas as we move through the night as a mid-level
low currently over south-central Oklahoma moves off to the northeast.
The rain will begin to transition to snow across northeast Oklahoma
into northwest Arkansas as we move into the overnight hours as the low level
temperature profile becomes more favorable. Current snow accumulation
forecast for tonight looks reasonable and will not make any wholesale
changes. Current winter headlines for tonight into Monday also look
good.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 140 PM CST Sun Feb 11 2024

The snow will not stick around long as temps rebound fairly
quickly in the wake of tonight's system back into the 50s and 60s
Tuesday and Wednesday. A strong front is expected by next weekend
however, knocking temps back below average for next Saturday (40s)
with some rebound to near average (50s) by next Sunday. There is
a low to medium chance (20-40%) of showers and isolated storms
ahead of the front on Friday.

Lacy

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1032 PM CST Sun Feb 11 2024

Widespread light rain is ongoing across NE OK with periodic
reports of light snow or sleet recently. Lesser coverage of light
rain extends into SE OK and western AR. Ceilings remain low VFR to
MVFR and will steadily lower overnight across E OK with flight
impacts nearer sunrise for western AR terminals. A change over to
snow is expected across NE OK which will correspond to visibility
restriction with the snow impacting NW AR mostly around sunrise
and through mid/late morning. Flight levels will begin to rise by
early afternoon across E OK and western AR during the afternoon.
VFR conditions are likely by mid/late afternoon area wide.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   34  47  28  59 /  90  60   0   0
FSM   37  42  29  60 /  90  60   0   0
MLC   34  45  28  61 /  90  50   0   0
BVO   35  48  25  59 /  70  40   0   0
FYV   33  37  25  58 /  90  80   0   0
BYV   33  35  27  55 /  90  90   0   0
MKO   34  44  27  58 / 100  70   0   0
MIO   33  44  25  55 /  80  70   0   0
F10   33  46  27  59 / 100  60   0   0
HHW   37  47  29  59 /  80  20   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Winter Storm Warning until 6 PM CST Monday for OKZ058-063.

     Winter Weather Advisory until noon CST Monday for OKZ054>057-
     059>062-064>071.

AR...Winter Storm Warning until 6 PM CST Monday for ARZ001-002-010-
     011.

&&

SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...07

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
452 PM CST Sun Feb 11 2024

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-121145-
Adair OK-Benton AR-Carroll AR-Cherokee OK-Choctaw OK-Craig OK-
Crawford AR-Creek OK-Delaware OK-Franklin AR-Haskell OK-Latimer OK-
Le Flore OK-Madison AR-Mayes OK-McIntosh OK-Muskogee OK-Nowata OK-
Okfuskee OK-Okmulgee OK-Osage OK-Ottawa OK-Pawnee OK-Pittsburg OK-
Pushmataha OK-Rogers OK-Sebastian AR-Sequoyah OK-Tulsa OK-Wagoner OK-
Washington OK-Washington AR-
452 PM CST Sun Feb 11 2024

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

WINTER WEATHER.
	SNOW ACCUMULATION.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Northeast Oklahoma into northwest Arkansas.
	ONSET...Late evening.

	Additional Accumulations in Later Periods.

DISCUSSION...

Rain is expected to mix with and change over the snow later this evening
and into overnight hours across northeast Oklahoma and into northwest Arkansas
as a potent upper level low moves across southern Oklahoma. Snow accumulations
of 1 to 4 inches are anticipated near the Interstate 44 corridor in northeast
Oklahoma through Monday morning with higher totals of 4 to 6 inches forecast
for portions of northwest Arkansas. With temperatures generally near or above
freezing, most of the snow accumulation is expected on elevated and grassy surfaces.
However, travel impacts are expected during heavier bursts of snow causing slick and
hazardous conditions. The heavier snow will also reduce visibility making driving
more difficult as well.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Spotter Activation Not Expected.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.
MONDAY...Winter Weather Potential...High Wind Potential.
TUESDAY...No Hazards.
WEDNESDAY...High Wind Potential.
THURSDAY...No Hazards.
FRIDAY...Thunderstorm Potential...High Wind Potential.
SATURDAY...High Wind Potential.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

Rain and snow will taper off from west to east across the area on Monday with
precipitation lingering into the afternoon across portions of northwest Arkansas.
Much of the snow will likely melt during the day Monday. With temperatures
expected to fall into the mid to upper 20s Monday night, any water on the
roadways could refreeze causing slick roadways.

Dry and unseasonably warm weather returns Tuesday and continues into Thursday.
The chances of showers and storms return Friday as the next storm system moves
into the region.

weather.gov/tulsa contains additional information.