Winter Storm and Winter Weather in Texas, February 11, 2024

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1050 PM CST Sat Feb 10 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 221 PM CST Sat Feb 10 2024

The forecast this afternoon is generally on track from the previous
shift regarding the winter storm that will move across the forecast
area tonight and Sunday. The 12Z model suite has begun to show a
good clustering of solutions that takes the center of the 500 mb low
from along the New Mexico-Arizona state line near Gallup at 00Z this
evening to the southeastern corner of New Mexico at 12Z Sunday and
then across the northern Permian Basin through the day Sunday. This
track will continue to favor the development of widespread
precipitation as early as this evening across western zones then
spreading to the east and northeast as the night progresses. Progged
sounding profiles continue to favor rain initially until the axis of
the upper low approaches and low levels cool to the low to mid 30s
which is likely to occur near midnight northwest, near sunrise
Lubbock area and post-sunrise hours eastern zones. Key to snowfall
totals then will be the development of a band of heavy snow to the
north of the low in an area associated with mid level warm, moist
advection, deformation of the mid/upper flow, the development of a
TROWAL (trough of warm air aloft), and the cold conveyor belt, i.e.,
all the ingredients included in a classic winter low. The main
concern regarding snow totals for this system is that it is
relatively warm. In this case this means that surface temperatures
are expected to range from about 30 to 35 degrees for the duration
of the snowfall with the warmer temperatures more likely across
eastern and southern sections of the expected precipitation field.
This would mean some degree of melting will be expected, but snow of
heavy enough a rate will overcome this problem. As such, much of the
QPF has been converted to snowfall with snow ratios still expected
to support warning criteria (4 inches or more) across the watch
area. The highest confidence comes across the northern two rows of
counties west of the Caprock escarpment with lessening confidence
east due to surface temperatures and south toward the Morton to
Lubbock corridor due to surface temperatures, but also an expected
sharp cutoff which is ultimately determined by the track of the low
itself. So, the final determination is that there is enough
confidence at this time to upgrade the entire watch area to a Winter
Storm Warning.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through next Friday)
Issued at 221 PM CST Sat Feb 10 2024

The upper low will be pushing to our east by late tomorrow evening
and will result in precip pushing off to our east. Clouds will also
clear from west to east tomorrow night. This will allow temps to
drop at least into the mid teens to upper 20s across the FA. Monday
morning lows will also be dependent on what areas have snow still on
the ground as areas with snow may see lower temps. The weather
pattern through the rest of the week will be relatively quiet. Upper
flow will become more zonal with surface winds remaining mostly out
of the south to southwest allowing daily highs to average in the
60s. A weak passive front is currently progged to push into the
region late Thursday which could cool Friday's temps by 5-10 degrees
F. Models do hint at a broad upper trough bringing moisture into the
region by late Friday and could result in some precip across the
region heading into the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1050 PM CST Sat Feb 10 2024

Flying conditions will rapidly deteriorate throughout the night
with IFR/LIFR CIGs and VSBYs expected at KCDS, KLBB, and KPVW, as
a winter storm affects the region. Rain will transition into a
wintry mix during the early morning hours with all snow expected
to develop near sunrise. Heavy snow is expected to affect KPVW
with potentially significant snowfall and whiteout conditions at
the terminal. BLO MINS will occur at KCDS and KPVW late tomorrow
morning and afternoon. BLO MINS for Localizer BC RWY 35 approach
at KLBB will be possible late tomorrow morning and afternoon.

Northerly winds increasing to near 20 kt with gusts to 30 kt will
also result in BLSN at all terminals during the late morning and
afternoon hours Sunday, with significant cross winds on RWY 8/26
at KLBB expected. Rapid improvements will occur towards the end of
the TAF period at KCDS, KLBB, and KPVW, with a return to VFR
after dark as winds begin to diminish out of the northwest.

Sincavage

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Storm Warning until midnight CST Sunday night for
TXZ021>038.

&&

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....51
AVIATION...09

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
245 PM CST Sat Feb 10 2024

TXZ021>044-112045-
Parmer-Castro-Swisher-Briscoe-Hall-Childress-Bailey-Lamb-Hale-Floyd-
Motley-Cottle-Cochran-Hockley-Lubbock-Crosby-Dickens-King-Yoakum-
Terry-Lynn-Garza-Kent-Stonewall-
245 PM CST Sat Feb 10 2024

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the South Plains, Rolling
Plains, and the far Southern Texas Panhandle.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Rain will begin to spread across our area tonight with a rain-snow
mix beginning around midnight over the far southwest Texas Panhandle,
shifting south into the central South Plains by early Sunday
morning. The gradual change over to all snow across the southwest
Texas Panhandle into central portions of the South Plains through the
overnight hours should result in light accumulations up to one or
two inches at most by sunrise Sunday morning.

A Winter Storm Warning is now in effect for the far southern Texas
Panhandle into the northern and central South and Rolling Plains from
midnight tonight through midnight Sunday night.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Rain will continue to transition to snow from northwest to southeast
through the day on Sunday. A large gradient in snowfall is expected
across the area with snowfall ranging from a trace to upwards of 10
inches by Sunday evening. The heaviest snowfall is expected across
the far southern Texas Panhandle into the northern and central South
and Rolling Plains where a Winter Storm Warning is effect.