An isolated thunderstorm in Guernsey County produced one instance of tree damage.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS PBZ wrote it up.
An isolated thunderstorm in Guernsey County produced one instance of tree damage.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Pittsburgh, PA wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 31, 5:06 PM EST, 1 hour 26 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 606 PM EDT Wed Jul 31 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Showers and thunderstorms will be possible daily through the weekend with the best chance coming Friday night. A heavy rainfall threat exists each day along with a low end chance for severe thunderstorms. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/... KEY MESSAGES: - Isolated convection expected through the evening hours. - SPCs Marginal Risk (1/5) has been maintained for damaging wind. - Continued well above normal temperature today. ------------------------------------------------------------------- A few thunderstorms have managed to fire in eastern Ohio during the late afternoon on outflow from an earlier MCS to the west. While the convective parameters look promising for a downburst threat, including 1000-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE, DCAPE of 1000-1300 J/kg, and relatively low shear, the storms have struggled to push any appreciable reflectivity above 25kft to this point. The dry air near and above this level is likely putting a lid on these storms to some degree. The very shallow and dissipating cumulus field over southwest PA/northern WV is further evidence of this dry air. However, we are watching stronger activity just to our northwest, in the CLE CWA, that might require statements/warnings if they maintain strength. However, as instability starts to fade with the setting sun, we expect most of this activity to slowly weaken as we approach and pass sunset. Coverage will remain at the isolated level through the evening hours, and any late-night MCS activity is still figured to remain mainly off to our southwest. Away from the storms, a warm and muggy night is forecast. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... KEY MESSAGES: - Another MCS dives to our southwest Thursday with a conditional threat for damaging wind in our area. - Better chance for rain Thursday night into Friday. - Temperatures remain above average. ------------------------------------------------------------------- The upper level pattern remains similar on Thursday with northwest flow aloft prevailing, though ensemble 500 mb heights nudge upward slightly through the day as shortwave ridging passes through in between troughs to our west and east. At the surface, the remnants of, you guessed it, another MCS will be following a similar track to the previous couple days off to our south and west along the axis of highest instability. A similar environment will be in place to Wednesday with the best ensemble overlap of instability and shear south and west of Pittsburgh. The question remains whether or not storms develop. There is some better agreement in the models with development to some extent across our area in the afternoon perhaps aided by the lake breeze and remnant outflow from the MCS. We will face another conditional damaging wind and heavy rainfall threat with PWAT values up around 1.5". A brief lull is favored shortly after sunset Thursday night, but things may ramp up again in the overnight period. Ensemble clusters exhibit good agreement in the speed and position of a deeper upper low slowly moving through the Midwest overnight Thursday night. Flow aloft will back southwesterly and draw in deeper layer moisture again saturating the profile with PWAT values rising up to 1.7-1.9". Unfavorable diurnal timing of a weak warm front should preclude much of a severe threat in our neck of the woods, but heavy rain will remain a possibility with weaker shear and tall CAPE profiles favoring efficient rainfall producers. Plenty of moisture will remain in place through the day on Friday in the warm sector to support better rain chances than we've seen so far this week with stronger upper diffluence as ensemble probability of measurable precip increases to 60+% across most of the area. Severe weather seems less likely with the thermal trough/upper level colder air to our west and better dynamics favored outside of our area on the south side of the upper low. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... KEY MESSAGES: - Slower upper trough will maintain periodic precipitation chances into the weekend. - Temperatures dip back closer to normal. ------------------------------------------------------------------- Ensemble clusters flatten out the upper low Saturday into Sunday as it slides through and the surface low spins near Lake Erie. While finer-scale details remain uncertain especially given the lower predictability near and short term, rain chances are favored to continue through the weekend until the upper trough clears the area and drier weather is favored to start the next work week. Some disagreement comes into view with the upper level pattern in terms of depth of the trough by late weekend and how fast heights begin to rise, but the consensus is that the pattern turns slightly more zonal, though still in west- northwest flow which would favor above normal temperature and periodic thunderstorm chances fueled by weak shortwave movement. && .AVIATION /22Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Water vapor imagery and RAP analysis at 500 mb indicates that weak upper trough has moved to the east of the area and subsidence is shown when looking at the 400-250 mb Potential Vorticity advection. This has limited any deep convective development as expected. Diurnal Cumulus field is extensive but relatively shallow and despite 1,500-2,500 j/kg SBCAPE storms have not yet formed. Stronger instability over southern Indiana extends into SW Ohio and will be available for eventual storms moving into area. Rain chances increase overnight mainly over southwest half of forecast area with potential for upstream MCS to develop in WNW flow and brush the area. This would mainly be an issue for ZZV and HLG and MGW TAF sites. .Outlook... An active pattern is expected to continue to promote almost daily chances of thunderstorms. Rather high chance Thursday evening and again Friday and Saturday as a slow moving upper low crosses the area. Ceiling and visibility restrictions will be limited to thunderstorm clusters for the most part, but probabilities will increase Friday and Saturday with weaker flow and increased probability of showers and thunderstorms. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. OH...None. WV...None. && SYNOPSIS...MLB NEAR TERM...MLB/CL SHORT TERM...MLB LONG TERM...MLB AVIATION...Craven
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 329 PM EDT Wed Jul 31 2024 OHZ039>041-048>050-057>059-068-069-PAZ007>009-013>016-020>022-029- 031-073>078-WVZ001>004-012-021-509>514-011930- Tuscarawas-Carroll-Columbiana-Coshocton-Harrison-Jefferson OH- Muskingum-Guernsey-Belmont-Noble-Monroe-Mercer-Venango-Forest- Lawrence-Butler-Clarion-Jefferson PA-Beaver-Allegheny-Armstrong- Washington-Greene-Westmoreland-Higher Elevations of Westmoreland- Fayette-Higher Elevations of Fayette-Indiana- Higher Elevations of Indiana-Hancock-Brooke-Ohio-Marshall-Wetzel- Marion-Monongalia- Ridges of Eastern Monongalia and Northwestern Preston-Preston- Eastern Preston-Western Tucker-Eastern Tucker- 329 PM EDT Wed Jul 31 2024 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for east central Ohio, western Pennsylvania, and northern West Virginia. .DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight. No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible Thursday and into the weekend and any may produce heavy rainfall resulting in localized flooding concerns especially in urban areas and areas that see several rounds of rain. There is also a Marginal Risk (1/5) for severe thunderstorms on Thursday and Friday with the primary hazard being damaging winds, though that will be conditional on thunderstorm development which is low confidence. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. MLB
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
703 PM EDT Wed Jul 31 2024
OHZ059-312330-
Belmont OH-
703 PM EDT Wed Jul 31 2024
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN BELMONT COUNTY
THROUGH 730 PM EDT...
At 703 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Powhatan Point, or 8 miles west of Moundsville, moving northeast at 5
mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects.
Locations impacted include...
Moundsville, Shadyside, Glen Dale, and Neffs.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
&&
LAT...LON 3993 8099 4005 8082 3996 8075 3995 8076
3991 8076 3991 8077 3992 8079 3992 8081
3990 8081 3988 8079 3986 8093
TIME...MOT...LOC 2303Z 236DEG 5KT 3993 8091
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH
MilcarekSpecial Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
718 PM EDT Wed Jul 31 2024
OHZ058-059-068-312345-
Guernsey OH-Noble OH-Belmont OH-
718 PM EDT Wed Jul 31 2024
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT EAST CENTRAL GUERNSEY...WEST
CENTRAL BELMONT AND NORTHEASTERN NOBLE COUNTIES THROUGH 745 PM EDT...
At 718 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 8
miles northwest of Barnesville, moving southeast at 10 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects.
Locations impacted include...
Barnesville, Quaker City, Salesville, and Fairview.
This includes Interstate 70 in Ohio between mile markers 190 and 205.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
&&
LAT...LON 4000 8142 4010 8136 4008 8109 3989 8121
TIME...MOT...LOC 2318Z 296DEG 10KT 4004 8133
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH
CLThe Pittsburgh radar (KPBZ), 103 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 23:30 UTC.
1 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
A tree was blown down onto I-70 at mile marker 196.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Ohio in 2024Every state in 2024This day in weather historyWarnings in Ohio, July 2024
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1201300.