On the evening of July 31st, a cluster of severe storms brought large hail, wind damage and heavy rainfall to portions of southeast Minnesota. In some areas, heavy rainfall totals led to flooding of various roads and low-lying areas in residential communities.
Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS ARX wrote it up.
On the evening of July 31st, a cluster of severe storms brought large hail, wind damage and heavy rainfall to portions of southeast Minnesota. In some areas, heavy rainfall totals led to flooding of various roads and low-lying areas in residential communities.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS La Crosse, WI wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 31, 5:52 PM CST, 13 minutes earlier. Its key messages:
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service La Crosse WI 652 PM CDT Wed Jul 31 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Strong to severe storm threat tonight with some lingering storms on Thursday. - Continued warm into the weekend but some signal for drier and cooler weather later next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 205 PM CDT Wed Jul 31 2024 TONIGHT and THURSDAY: Focus going into the evening is convective storm threat, including location, timing, and intensity for our area. Still lots of details to work out. Per usual, convective allowing models are all over the place and struggling catching up with reality this afternoon. Tracking mid level trough across the Dakotas with several short waves steering main convective threats. Northern wave is leading to convection across western Minnesota but short term guidance still suggests this will take a turn to the southeast tonight, riding the 700 mb cap and better CAPE gradient. Unsure if this will happen as storms may stay ahead of this feature, albeit elevated in nature. Meanwhile another feature is lifting out of eastern Nebraska that may be bigger player as associated front edges into higher MUCAPE axis from eastern Nebraska northward along SD-MN border. Shear values are also higher closer to the wave with far shorter and chaotic hodographs the further east you go. Again, warm mid level temperatures may be limiting convection initially but still expecting it to fill in as afternoon goes on. While it makes sense that storms would erupt this afternoon along associated front and mainly track west and south of us, am a little concerned about convection across northern areas and how that may play into this. In any event, could be looking at a strong to severe storm risk further north and east, and perhaps earlier, than expected, especially if a well developed cold pool can form. Damaging wind continues to be main threat with bowing segments. Wave from overnight will still be lingering across Wisconsin on Thursday, which will likely force additional showers and storms, especially ahead of it. Higher CAPE values will be shunted off to the southeast taking higher risk of any severe storms with it. But could still see enough low level instability and favorable vorticity fields for non supercell landspout set up if strong enough storm can form under passing low. FRIDAY into NEXT WEEK: Mean upper ridge placement remains fairly consistent across the western CONUS at least into early next week before we see more height falls across the Upper Midwest next week. This keeps the western Great Lakes along the edge of the cap /warmer air to the southwest/ and perhaps along a frontal boundary. Difficult to put any detail into timing and location this far in advance, but any short waves traveling through this stronger mid level flow on northeast edge of ridge could lead to a more organized convective risk for us. Medium range guidance diverges later in the forecast period, but one consistency is idea of a bit more amplification in flow pushing cooler and drier into region from the northwest. This would lead us into a drier and cooler regime. Certainly ensembles suggest CAPE values among members are highest in short term with no real signal for higher instability later in forecast period. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 653 PM CDT Wed Jul 31 2024 A challenging convective forecast heading into tonight. Pop up showers and storms currently south of the Twin Cities are on a trajectory toward RST and LSE through the next couple hours, but unsure if this cluster will maintain its intensity as it approaches. Otherwise the main round of more widespread storms associated with a shortwave out to our west is expected to sweep eastward into the TAF sites overnight between approximately 06-10Z. This round of storms will be on a weakening trend as it moves east overnight. Thereafter, a lingering 30 to 40% chance for showers and thunderstorms through Thursday morning with the shortwave overhead, increasing to a 70% chance in the afternoon with increasing daytime instability. Tried to tie TS mention in the TAFs to the most likely timeframes. Other aviation concern will be potential for MVFR ceilings Thursday morning. RST would have a higher likelihood of going MVFR, but can't rule out the possibility at LSE for a short time. && .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. MN...None. IA...None. && DISCUSSION...Shea AVIATION...Kurz
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service La Crosse WI 319 AM CDT Wed Jul 31 2024 IAZ008>011-018-019-029-030-MNZ079-086>088-094>096-WIZ017-029- 032>034-041>044-053>055-061-011000- Mitchell-Howard-Winneshiek-Allamakee-Floyd-Chickasaw-Fayette- Clayton-Wabasha-Dodge-Olmsted-Winona-Mower-Fillmore-Houston- Taylor-Clark-Buffalo-Trempealeau-Jackson-La Crosse-Monroe-Juneau- Adams-Vernon-Crawford-Richland-Grant- 319 AM CDT Wed Jul 31 2024 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southeast Minnesota...northeast Iowa and southwest into central Wisconsin. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight Thunderstorms tonight. A few could be strong to severe, mostly this evening and west of the Mississippi river. Damaging winds are the main threat. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday Storm chances persist Thursday. Organized severe weather is not expected. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Rainfall or severe reports are appreciated. .EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT COORDINATION... No webinar is scheduled. Rieck
The Minneapolis radar (KMPX), 104 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 00:07 UTC.
6 thunderstorm wind, 5 hail, 2 flash flood. Local standard time, as filed.
Trained spotters reported multiple trees down in Mazeppa.
A trained spotter reported large limbs down at multiple farmsteads near Zumbro Falls.
Trained spotters reported multiple large trees of 30 to 40 feet high down along the west side of Zumbro Lake.
Local fire and rescue reported golf ball sized hail near Zumbro Falls.
Local fire and rescue in Zumbro Falls estimated a wind gust to 60 mph.
Trained spotters reported golf ball sized hail north of Zumbro Falls.
A baseball dugout was completely destroyed in Elgin.
The public reported a tree down on a house and a vehicle southwest of Elgin.
Numerous sources reported penny to quarter sized hail in Elgin.
Law enforcement reported water over highway 63 north of Zumbro Falls.
The public reported golf ball sized hail in the town of Plainview.
The public reported quarter sized hail 2 miles east of Elba. The report was relayed via mPING.
Trained spotters reported flooding of ditches near residences in Elgin.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Minnesota in 2024Every state in 2024This day in weather historyWarnings in Minnesota, July 2024
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1203141, 1203146, 1203153, 1203128, 1203138, 1203129, 1203140, 1203139, 1203130, 1203121, 1203132, 1203136, 1203122.