A surface cold front approached the region as an area of low pressure tracked into the Ohio Valley. A lee trough was also present across western North Carolina.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS RAH wrote it up.
A surface cold front approached the region as an area of low pressure tracked into the Ohio Valley. A lee trough was also present across western North Carolina. In combination of both the surface front, as well as sea breeze thunderstorms forming an effective boundary, scattered showers and thunderstorms developed across the Piedmont. Additional storms formed over the Sandhills and Coastal Plain. Several trees and powerlines were reported down due to the storms moving through in the late afternoon and early evening hours.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Raleigh, NC wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Aug 2, 1:54 PM EST, 1 minute earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 254 PM EDT Fri Aug 2 2024 .SYNOPSIS... A weak surface trough extends from western Virginia into the western Piedmont of the Carolinas. A cold front across the western Ohio Valley will slowly move southeast reaching the western slopes of the southern Appalachians by Saturday morning and then stall to our northwest over the weekend. A tropical system will likely develop in the eastern Gulf this weekend. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/... As of 235 PM Friday... * Threat of strong gusty winds and excessive lightning with storms this afternoon and evening has increased. * Heat index values of 105 to 109 expected in many areas through the late afternoon. The latest surface analysis shows a weak surface trough extending north to south across western VA into the western Carolinas. A cold front is analyzed from the Great Lakes south across the western OH and TN Valleys. The air mass across the central NC remains hot and very humid with dew points generally in the lower to mid 70s across the Piedmont and in the upper 70s to around 80 in the Coastal Plain. KRDU and KFAY reported morning lows of 78 this morning which would tie the record high minimum for today if temps don't cool before midnight EST. A vigorous mid and upper level vortex centered over northern IN this afternoon will drop southeast through tonight and weaken as it reaches the western slopes of the southern Appalachians toward daybreak on Saturday. Ahead of this system, the mid level flow will back and become southwesterly and mid level heights will fall. At the surface, a weak surface trough across the western Piedmont will weaken a bit as the cross-mountain flow weakens. With heating this afternoon, mixed layer instability has become moderate to strong with MLCAPE values climbing into the 1500-3000 J/Kg range. DCAPE values range from 1000 to 1200 J/KG supporting efficient downburst storms and central NC remains in a Marginal Risk for severe thunderstorms from the SPC. In addition, NCAPE values will be generous suggesting storms this afternoon and evening may support excessive lightning. Convective coverage should be much greater today than the past few days with with better forcing for ascent and plentiful instability. Clusters of storms developing across the NC mountains will move east and northeast reaching the western Piedmont and Triad area during the mid to late afternoon hours. Other clusters of storms developing in northeastern SC and the NC Sandhills will spread northeast. Other more scattered cells are apt to develop between these two areas with boundaries and outflow providing local forcing for ascent. The convection will slowly ramp down during the evening with most of the convection over by midnight although a rouge storm is possible with some ascent provided by the approaching mid/upper level trough. Another warm and humid night is expected tonight with lows in the lower to mid 70s. -Blaes && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... As of 250 PM Friday... A weakening but still vigorous mid and upper level trough will slowly move into the southern and central Appalachians. A weak surface trough will linger in the area as a cold front moves into the mountains and stalls. A deep south to southwesterly flow will continue to pump in warm and moist air into the region. After morning stratus thins a bit and with surface heating expect afternoon MLCAPE values will become weakly to moderately unstable in the afternoon. Expect another convectively active day, likely more active than today with showers and storms developing in the Piedmont around midday and continuing into the afternoon and evening. There is a Marginal risk for severe thunderstorms and a Marginal to Slight risk for excessive rainfall. Rainfall totals could exceed 2 inches in some isolated areas and there is some concern over flooding potential. The primary severe threat will be damaging wind gusts. With a slightly cooler airmass, more clouds, and an earlier launch time for convection, highs will be a little cooler and a little tricky and mainly range in the upper 80s to lower 90s. Lows will range in the lower to mid 70s. -Blaes && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 245 PM Friday... High confidence for showers and storms developing across the region Sunday as upper level tough moves across the region. As the surface front is expected to become nearly stationary over the region Sunday better chance of precip will be along and east of the US1 corridor with onshore flow and PW values in the 2+” range in eastern NC. Lingering scattered showers and storms late Sunday into Monday morning will be dependent on the incoming potential tropical cyclone developing off the Southeast coast, keeping that stationary front in position. While most ensemble models show the PTC/low pressure system exiting the NE coast of Florida late night Sunday, track and intensity begin to vary Monday and beyond. For now, kept 40-60% chance PoPs in for areas mainly along and east of the US1 corridor Monday afternoon and evening. Timing drastically differs Tuesday morning and beyond as the Euro shows the cyclone lingering off the GA and SC coast through mid/late week before exiting the DELMARVA coast late week resulting in a more wet pattern than the GFS solution. In which that, the low exits NE Florida early Monday morning and keeps along the coast as the trough/front hold off a more inland track. GFS also tracks it quicker to the NE as it centered off the DELMARVA coast as early as Thursday morning. Therefore low confidence for the forecast Tuesday onward. For now just have higher PoPs in the afternoon and evening each day through the week in eastern portions of the CWA. With time and more consistency with the models forecast confidence is expected to increase. Temperatures will generally be in the mid to upper 80s Sunday and Monday, with near normal temps returning Tuesday and Wednesday with highs in the 90s. Overnight lows will remain 3 to 5 degrees above average ranging from the low to mid 70s. && .AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 1250 PM Friday... 24 hour TAF period: Widespread VFR conditions are noted across the area early this afternoon. However, a somewhat more active period is expected as scattered convection will continue to develop over the next few hours. Two areas of convection appear apt to develop, one across the NC mountains that will shift east and northeast likely impacting the Triad terminals (KINT and KGSO) and another across the Coastal Plain and Sandhills impacting (KFAY and possibly KRDU). The greatest storm coverage and intensity will likely extend from 20Z to 00Z with some convection likely to linger into the evening hours. Most of the convection should wrap up by 03Z to 05Z. Storms will produce locally gusty winds and reduced vsbys. Otherwise expect VFR conditions with SCT to BKN low and mid clouds. Some late night and early morning stratus and possible fog will develop resulting in MVFR to possibly IFR restrictions. Conditions will improve early Saturday morning with VFR conditions expected during much of the morning. Scattered convection is apt to develop on Saturday around midday into the early afternoon, favored in the Piedmont and Coastal Plain. Looking ahead: An active weather period is setting up for the longer term with scattered to numerous afternoon and evening showers and storms on Saturday and Sunday with perhaps a slight decrease in coverage on Monday and Tuesday. Wednesday is uncertain due to the potential for a tropical system to move across the Southeast. In addition to showers and storms, some light night and early morning fog and stratus and is possible through the period. -Blaes && .CLIMATE... Record High Temperatures: August 2: KGSO: 101/1915 KRDU: 101/1953 KFAY: 105/1980 Record High Minimum Temperatures: August 2: KGSO: 76/2006 KRDU: 78/1942 KFAY: 78/2006 August 3: KGSO: 76/2006 KRDU: 79/1935 KFAY: 78/2006 August 4: KGSO: 76/2011 KRDU: 78/1935 KFAY: 78/1928 August 5: KGSO: 76/2006 KRDU: 77/2022 August 6: KGSO: 75/2007 KRDU: 77/1930 KFAY: 79/2007 && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ007>011- 023>028-039>043-073>078-083>086-088-089. && SYNOPSIS...Blaes NEAR TERM...Blaes SHORT TERM...Blaes LONG TERM...CA AVIATION...Blaes CLIMATE...
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Raleigh NC 533 AM EDT Fri Aug 2 2024 NCZ021-022-038-030945- Forsyth-Guilford-Davidson- 533 AM EDT Fri Aug 2 2024 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central North Carolina. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. Dangerously hot conditions will be possible today, with heat index values of 100 to 103 expected. Additionally, showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening may result in locally heavy rainfall. A few storms may become strong to severe, with isolated damaging wind gusts possible. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday. Thunderstorms are expected to develop again on Saturday. In addition to locally heavy rainfall and frequent cloud to ground lightning, some storms may become strong to severe, with the primary threat of damaging wind gusts. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. NCZ007>011-023>028-039>043-073>078-083>086-088-089-030945- Person-Granville-Vance-Warren-Halifax-Alamance-Orange-Durham- Franklin-Nash-Edgecombe-Randolph-Chatham-Wake-Johnston-Wilson-Stanly- Montgomery-Moore-Lee-Harnett-Wayne-Anson-Richmond-Scotland-Hoke- Cumberland-Sampson- 533 AM EDT Fri Aug 2 2024 ...HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM EDT TODAY... This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central North Carolina. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Heat Advisory. Additionally, showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening may result in locally heavy rainfall. A few storms may become strong to severe, with isolated damaging wind gusts possible. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday. Thunderstorms are expected to develop again on Saturday. In addition to locally heavy rainfall and frequent cloud to ground lightning, some storms may become strong to severe, with the primary threat of damaging wind gusts. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
130 PM EDT Fri Aug 2 2024
NCZ084-085-021830-
Scotland NC-Richmond NC-
130 PM EDT Fri Aug 2 2024
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SCOTLAND AND SOUTHEASTERN
RICHMOND COUNTIES THROUGH 230 PM EDT...
At 130 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Laurinburg, moving northeast at 20 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects.
Locations impacted include...
Laurinburg, Rockingham, Hamlet, Maxton, Hoffman, Dobbins Heights,
Wagram, Gibson, East Laurinburg, and Laurel Hill.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.
Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.
&&
LAT...LON 3480 7968 3481 7987 3481 7988 3500 7972
3504 7945 3499 7939 3494 7935 3489 7935
3485 7934 3482 7936 3477 7933 3464 7945
3463 7947
TIME...MOT...LOC 1730Z 245DEG 19KT 3478 7957
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH
PWBThe Raleigh/Durham radar (KRAX), 81 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 18:57 UTC.
9 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
A tree was reported down near the intersection of US Highway 301 and Owen Dr.
Multiple trees were reported down on powerlines along New Walkertown Rd.
A tree was reported down along Walnut Street SW.
Power outages were caused by fallen trees on power equipment near the town of Knightdale.
Multiple trees were reported down along Raleigh Rd.
Several trees were reported down along US Highway 158 E.
Hundreds of power outages due to trees falling on power equipment near the town of Sedalia.
Power lines were reported down between the towns of Concord and Roxboro.
Trees were reported down throughout the county, including especially the town of Bushy Fork.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in North Carolina in 2024Every state in 2024This day in weather historyWarnings in North Carolina, August 2024
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1208699, 1208700, 1208702, 1208703, 1208704, 1208705, 1208707, 1208708, 1208712.