Arizona, 2024

Damaging Winds in Arizona, August 2, 2024

August 2, 2024 · NWS TWC · 2 events in 1 county or zone

An area of severe thunderstorms moved through the Tucson Metro. This produced severe threshold winds and damage in both the southeast and west to northwest sides of the Tucson Metro.

Where it happened

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  • Tornadoes
  • Tropical storms and surge
  • Floods
  • Wind
  • Hail
  • Winter weather
  • Heat and drought
  • Cold
  • Fire, smoke and dust
  • Marine and coastal
  • Other

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The toll

Deaths
0
Injuries
0
Property damage
$65,000
Crop damage
None recorded
Events
2

Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.

What happened

The episode as NWS TWC wrote it up.

An area of severe thunderstorms moved through the Tucson Metro. This produced severe threshold winds and damage in both the southeast and west to northwest sides of the Tucson Metro.

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Tucson, AZ wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Aug 2, 1:58 PM MST, 4 hours 1 minute earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Aug 2, 1:58 PM MST, 4 hours 1 minute before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
158 PM MST Fri Aug 2 2024

.SYNOPSIS...

Daily chances for thunderstorms continue through next
week, with more limited coverage over the weekend. Some storms will
generate heavy rain and strong gusty winds. Temperatures will
increase over the weekend, peaking Sunday, subtly trending down a
few degrees early to middle of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Convection has started to fire in western New Mexico the past few
hours, and this activity will spread in coverage and intensity
westward into AZ between 1-3pm this afternoon.

The 12Z TWC sounding reported 1.86 inches of precipitable water,
surprisingly juicy compared to the previous morning's sounding
that had 1.61 inches which is more on par with what would be
expected climatologically.

Thus, we tossed up an 18 UTC Sounding to get another look at the
low level moisture profile, and it came back a little bit less
moist than the 12 UTC run (1.6in vs. 1.86in). The well mixed
layer below 700mb remained, and surface CAPE values rose to above
1600J/kg, which means there is enough energy to help initiate and
sustain storms through the afternoon hours.

Drier air has already begun to move in aloft which will be
available to entrain into any afternoon thunderstorms and perhaps
enhance the wind threat a bit. The HREF gives a 70 percent chance
of winds at least 30 kts (35 mph) from the Tucson Metro west and
a 10 percent chance of winds of 50 kts (58 mph) in this area as
well. There was 17 kts of effective shear reported in the 18 UTC
sounding which is also enough to sustain a stronger storm or two.

CAMs show isolated to scattered thunderstorms forming mainly
south and east of Tucson and over mountainous terrain around 20Z
(1 pm MST) before propagating through the Tucson Metro from around
22Z to 02Z (3 pm to 7 pm MST). With the loss of daytime heating,
expect thunderstorm organization to diminish a bit after sunset.

Also of note, WPC issued an MPD for portions of eastern and
southern Arizona for this afternoon and evening to highlight the
potential for flash flooding.

Overall, looking like an average to perhaps a slightly above
average Monsoon day with southeasterly flow helping propagate
storms to the northwest into the afternoon hours. A couple storms
may produce strong to severe wind gusts and very heavy rainfall.

After this afternoon/evening round of storms, The heat becomes
the story once again, as portions of the CWA will be well above
normal with highs in in the 106-111F range across portions of
Western Pima County and in the Tucson Metro Area. HeatRisk values
in the major category will pose risks to vulnerable populations.

Chances for stronger thunderstorm activity will trend downward on
Saturday and Sunday before a more favorable monsoon pattern
returns on Monday and Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...

Valid through 04/00Z. SCT -SHRA/-TSRA after 02/22z thru 03/04z,
then ISOLD -SHRA/TS thru end of valid pd. MVFR conditions and wind
gusts to 45 kts near thunderstorms. Outside of thunderstorms
expect wind speeds less than 12 kts and following typical diurnal
trends. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Daily chances of thunderstorms can be expected across the region
this afternoon and evening. Thunderstorms that develop today could
have the potential to be heavy rainers, which would help suppress
active fires. Dryer air will move into the region this weekend
that will keep min RHs in the upper teens to lower twenties in the
lower locations and thirties in the higher elevations. Min RHs
will trend upward by next week due to thunderstorm influences.
Outside of thunderstorm winds, 20-foot winds will generally be 15
mph or less, with afternoon/early evening gusts to 20-25 mph and
light winds overnight.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

Public...Singer/DVS
Aviation...Singer/DVS
Fire Weather....Singer/DVS

Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...YouTube...and at weather.gov/Tucson

The radar

The Tucson radar (KEMX), 30 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 00:58 UTC.

Open the radar archive at this moment

Event by event

2 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.

Thunderstorm Wind, Pima

When
August 2, 5:59 PM MST to 6:02 PM MST
Where
Pima County, 2.61 mi SE of Littletown
Measured
54 kt (62 mph) measured gust
Property damage
$50,000
Reported by
Mesonet
Coordinates
32.101, -110.841

A personal weather station recorded a wind gust of 62 mph. Additionally, these thunderstorm winds produced tree damage and damage to mobile homes near I-10 and Kolb Rd.

Thunderstorm Wind, Pima

When
August 2, 6:40 PM MST to 7:00 PM MST
Where
Pima County, 4.06 mi N of Drexel Hgts to 2.85 mi NNW of Cortaro
Measured
61 kt (70 mph) measured gust
Property damage
$15,000
Reported by
Mesonet
Coordinates
32.239, -111.022

A severe thunderstorm formed on the west side of Tucson and tracked northwest into the northwest side of Tucson and southern portions of Marana. This thunderstorm produced tree damage including trees toppled over by their roots in the neighborhood just north of W Speedway Rd and N Greaswood Rd on the near west side of Tucson. Additional tree damage occurred near the intersection of Twin Peaks Rd and Oasis Rd on the northwest side of Tucson.

What these are

Thunderstorm Wind
Winds from a thunderstorm of 50 knots (58 mph) or more, or lower winds that caused damage or casualties. Measured gusts are marked MG, estimated EG.

After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.

The same day elsewhere

More

Every storm in Arizona in 2024Every state in 2024This day in weather historyWarnings in Arizona, August 2024

Sources

NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1202218, 1202220.