An upper high was located over northeast Texas with modest low and mid level moisture brought into the Borderland on southeast winds. Dew point depressions over the lowlands were still around 50 degrees supporting strong downburst winds with the strongest thunderstorms that developed.
Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS EPZ wrote it up.
An upper high was located over northeast Texas with modest low and mid level moisture brought into the Borderland on southeast winds. Dew point depressions over the lowlands were still around 50 degrees supporting strong downburst winds with the strongest thunderstorms that developed.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS El Paso, TX wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jun 29, 1:12 PM MST, 1 hour 41 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
212 PM MDT Sat Jun 29 2024
...New SYNOPSIS, DISCUSSION, FIRE WEATHER...
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 200 PM MDT Sat Jun 29 2024
Daily thunderstorm chances will continue throughout the entire
period with Wednesday showing the highest probability for showers
and thunderstorms. Temperatures will run near or a few degrees
above normal.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 200 PM MDT Sat Jun 29 2024
The monsoonal pattern is well established with the presence of the
summertime subtropical ridge. The location of this ridge will be
what drives our weather for the period, and really the remainder
of the summer. Starting off, it's centered over the DFW area, but
with a ridge axis extending well to its west (and east), reaching
into our CWA. This pattern has worked to bring warm temperatures
aloft along with some subsidence as well as import drier air.
PWats were around 1.2" on this morning's EPZ sounding. Satellite
and radar are relatively quiet as of 1PM with just a few showers
over the Gila and Sacs as thermodynamics and dynamics are
presently limited thanks to the high. With that said, however, an
easterly push is expected to arrive this afternoon, moving east to
west, which will likely aid in thunderstorm development by adding
some low-level lift though isolated to maybe scattered coverage is
expected. Air mass wise, moisture and temperature (or in terms of
theta-e) advection will be fairly neutral, at least initially.
Temperatures for Sunday will be around 5 degrees cooler in spite
of the ridge continuing to nudge westward. The HRRR is showing an
uptick for thunderstorm coverage for tomorrow in spite of the
cooler temperatures. An easterly wave over Mexico was over
Southern Chihuahua as of typing this discussion with a trailing
vort max arcing toward the Rio Grande Valley of TX. The bulk of
this easterly wave looks to continue into the Pacific according to
the GFS, but the GFS and NAM show the trailing vort tube and
moisture forced northward into the CWA, which if true, would
provide subtle DPVA.
As we head into Monday, the ridge will begin making a slow trek to
the east while ridging strengthens off the Pacific Coast. For
Monday and Tuesday, temperatures will climb some as today's air
mass retreats east while thunderstorm chances follow their usual
preference toward the mountains with at least isolated coverage
spreading into the lowlands. On Wednesday, the ridge moves far
enough east, a weakness/trough develops over NM between the
Pacific Ridge and subtropical ridge over the CONUS. Moisture will
center within this weakness, giving our entire CWA its best chance
for precipitation of the period. GFS shows PW values over 1.5"
while the ECMWF shows dew points in the mid 50s. Heavy rain and
flash flooding would be the main concern.
Drier air will try and push in from the northwest beginning
Thursday with models disagreeing on how far south it will go. The
other important thing about NW-flow is it opens the door for
disturbances to directly impact our CWA either via frontal pushes,
which is hinted at for next Saturday or DPVA, which usually stems
from features too subtle for models to pick-up this far in
advance. All that said, thunderstorm chances will continue as we
finish out the work week while temperatures hover near or just
above average. Looking at NBM temperatures for KELP, the spread
between the 25th and 75th percentile is as much as ten degrees by
next weekend, indicating the uncertainty of how much cooler air NW
flow will allow to push into Southern NM and Far W Texas.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1129 AM MDT Sat Jun 29 2024
VFR conditions expected with FEW-SCT110/250 becoming SCT to
occasionally BKN110/250. Winds will begin light and variable but
more dominated from the SE (100-130) as the afternoon progresses
with speeds around 10 knots and gusts to 20 knots. ISO to SCT
SHRA/TSRA are expected this afternoon area-wide, especially west
of the Rio Grande; however, confidence on timing and overall
probability of occurrence is too low to mention in TAF at this
time. RA+ with subsequent VIS and flight category reductions and
gusty winds would be the main aviation concerns. Subsequent
outflows will also likely require TAF amendments late this
afternoon and during the evening.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 200 PM MDT Sat Jun 29 2024
Minimal fire concerns continue as we remain in a monsoonal
pattern. Temperatures are not expected to be as hot for Sunday,
which will allow for higher min RH values in the afternoon, only
falling into the mid 20s. Winds will remain light. Thunderstorm
development is expected again tomorrow afternoon with the HRRR
showing an increase in coverage than seen the past two days.
Regardless, convection will be favored in the mountains. The main
concern with any storm will be gusty winds. Thunderstorm coverage
and chances will decrease some for Monday and Tuesday before
increasing again Wednesday. Venting will range very good to
excellent for Sunday and good to very good for Monday.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso 82 102 81 101 / 30 30 50 10
Sierra Blanca 71 94 69 94 / 20 30 20 10
Las Cruces 76 99 74 99 / 60 30 60 20
Alamogordo 69 96 70 96 / 30 20 30 10
Cloudcroft 52 73 53 72 / 30 30 30 30
Truth or Consequences 75 95 73 94 / 60 20 60 40
Silver City 68 90 66 88 / 70 40 80 60
Deming 75 98 72 96 / 70 30 80 30
Lordsburg 73 97 71 94 / 70 40 90 50
West El Paso Metro 79 99 78 98 / 40 30 50 10
Dell City 73 98 72 98 / 10 20 20 10
Fort Hancock 77 101 74 101 / 20 30 30 10
Loma Linda 71 93 70 91 / 20 30 40 10
Fabens 79 100 76 100 / 20 30 40 10
Santa Teresa 77 97 74 96 / 40 30 60 20
White Sands HQ 77 96 76 96 / 40 20 50 20
Jornada Range 73 96 71 95 / 50 20 60 20
Hatch 73 98 71 97 / 60 20 60 30
Columbus 76 97 73 96 / 70 30 80 20
Orogrande 75 96 73 96 / 30 20 40 10
Mayhill 57 84 58 84 / 30 40 20 30
Mescalero 57 85 58 83 / 30 30 30 30
Timberon 56 82 55 82 / 20 30 30 20
Winston 63 86 61 84 / 60 30 70 70
Hillsboro 70 92 68 91 / 70 30 70 60
Spaceport 70 95 68 94 / 60 20 60 30
Lake Roberts 63 90 62 86 / 60 40 80 70
Hurley 69 93 66 91 / 70 30 80 50
Cliff 68 99 66 96 / 60 30 80 60
Mule Creek 69 93 67 89 / 60 40 80 70
Faywood 70 91 68 89 / 70 30 80 50
Animas 70 97 69 94 / 70 50 80 50
Hachita 70 96 69 95 / 80 40 80 40
Antelope Wells 69 95 68 94 / 80 70 90 50
Cloverdale 65 90 66 89 / 80 70 80 50
&&
.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory until 6 AM MDT Sunday for TXZ418-419-423-424.
NM...Heat Advisory until 6 AM MDT Sunday for NMZ407-410-411-427>429.
Flood Watch until midnight MDT tonight for NMZ415-416.
&&
FORECASTER...34-BrownThe El Paso radar (KEPZ), 60 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 21:50 UTC.
3 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
Reports of several power poles blown down north of Las Cruces on social media.
The Apache Mesonet station on the White Sands Missile Range recorded a peak gust of 65 mph.
The Hachita Valley RAWS station recorded a peak gust of 72 mph.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in New Mexico in 2024Every state in 2024This day in weather historyWarnings in New Mexico, June 2024
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1193383, 1193385, 1193388.