Flash Flooding and Debris Flows in New Mexico, June 29 to 30, 2024

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
300 PM MDT Sat Jun 29 2024

...New SYNOPSIS, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 300 PM MDT Sat Jun 29 2024

Monsoon moisture combined with a backdoor cold front will allow
showers and storms to persist well into tonight, with north central
and northeast areas being the most favored. Drier air moves into
eastern areas Sunday shifting the moisture plume and storm coverage
to western and parts of central areas Sunday. Diurnal showers and
storms will favor western and central areas Monday expanding east
Tuesday and Wednesday. Drier northwest flow moves in on the Fourth
of July holiday pushing higher moisture and storm coverage to
southern areas. A backdoor front moves in Thursday night into Friday
morning increasing storm coverage across eastern NM Friday
afternoon and evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 300 PM MDT Sat Jun 29 2024

The backdoor cold front has pushed southward to just pass Fort
Sumner and Clovis. Moist upslope flow behind the front should set
the stage for an active late afternoon, evening and overnight
period. Storms should initiate on the Sangre de Cristo Mountains
before tracking eastward. Strong veering with height (though mid
level flow is weak) combined with modest instability across
northeast NM will allow for at least a few severe storms. Large hail
may occur initially, but heavy rain and damaging outflow winds
should be the higher threat going into the evening and overnight.
HREF probabilities show at least a 20-30% chance of greater than 2"
of rain within one hour's time at various times this evening across
portions of NE NM. PWATs are currently around 120-160% of normal so
heavy rainfall will be easy to come by especially with persistent
upslope flow. Of greatest concern, is the Hermits Peak Calf Canyon
burn scar which is already seeing some light rain, but should get
heavier with increasing instability this afternoon. In fact, the
HPCC burn scar should get multiple rounds of precipitation going
through the overnight periods. Some of the most persistent rainfall
may occur between 10pm and 3am, not only on the burn scar, but also
across much of north central and northeast NM. Elsewhere, showers
and a few thunderstorms have been ongoing across western NM in
response to a disturbance moving northward across eastern AZ. These
should, too, increase in intensity and coverage through the
remainder of the afternoon, but should diminish around sunset.
Storms around the burn scars across the Sacramento Mountains will
likely continue to skirt the western sides of South Fork, but it's
possible that additional storms will form over the burn scars later
this afternoon before diminishing this evening. A Flash Flood
Warning has already been issued for these burn scars.

There was initial concern that the storms east of the central
mountain chain would send a strong outflow boundary through the gaps
of the central mountain chain this evening. While this may still
happen, and probably will for a short time, latest model guidance
shows that outflows from storms to the north and west of ABQ will
interfere with the gap wind, thus, the gap wind may not be as strong
as originally thought. Will forego a Wind Advisory for now, but
bears watching.

Dry air moving into southeast NM around the base of the upper high
will continue to press northwest overnight and Sunday. Therefore,
the moisture plume will be focused further west on Sunday, with
precipitation favoring far northern and western NM during the
afternoon and evening. That's not to say that burn scars couldn't
see some precipitation, but confidence is too low at this time to
issue a Flood Watch for Sunday afternoon and evening.  Will let
later shifts take another look at this. Rather, heavy rain will
favor areas across far northwest NM and a Flood Watch may be needed
for areas around Farmington. Storms may begin to shift a bit
eastward Sunday night, impacting a bit more of western NM, but the
moisture plume will shift further eastward on Monday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 300 PM MDT Sat Jun 29 2024

A strong and sprawling 598 dm upper high will be centered over the
southern Great Plains along with troughing over the Great Basin as
we kick off the month of July. This will position the monsoon
moisture plume of PWATS as high as 1.3 inches over western and
central NM and part of northeast NM. Drier midlevel air will be
across the rest of eastern NM due to this part of the state being on
the western flank of the upper high. Thus, the shower and storm
coverage Monday afternoon and evening will favor central and western
NM with storms starting over the northern and western high terrain
spreading northeast to lower elevations come the evening through
outflow boundaries. Burn scars west of the central mountain chain
will have a better chance of burn scar flash flooding with lower
chances for HPCC and the Ruidoso burn scars due to them being east
of the higher midlevel moisture. The monsoon plume shifts east a
little and becomes oriented from western NM to northeast and east
central NM Tuesday. This is due to upper level troughing moving over
the central Rockies and the upper high centroid shifting to the
lower Mississippi Valley. Thus, more of eastern NM will see showers
and storms during the late afternoon and evening hours on Tuesday.
Additionally, the risk of flash flooding on the HPCC and Ruidoso
burn scars will be slightly higher on Tuesday compared to Monday.

Another round of diurnal showers and storms first over the higher
terrain before spreading down to lower elevations later in the day
is expected Wednesday as the monsoon moisture plume remains over the
region and interacts with an upper level trough diving southeast
into the northern Rockies. The one area that might not see showers
and storms on Wednesday will be the Four Corners area and far north
central areas due to drier northwest flow dropping PWATS to half an
inch. This drier northwest flow overtakes more areas of the state
for the 4th of July as the upper level trough moves east into the
northern Great Plains and a strong upper level high develops over
California. PWATS drop to as low as 0.25 inches over the Four
Corners and around 0.5 to 0.75 inches for most. The exception will
be southern areas as the higher monsoon moisture of PWATS greater
than an inch lingers. Thus a risk of burn scar flash flooding will
still exist for Ruidoso area. The break in showers and storms for
eastern NM does not last long, unfortunately, due to the exiting
upper level trough over the upper Midwest sending a backdoor cold
front into eastern NM Thursday night into Friday morning. The higher
moisture and upslope flow behind this backdoor front combined with
an upper level trough diving southeast along the eastern flank of
the upper high over California will set the stage for more showers
and storms along and east of the central mountain chain Friday
afternoon and evening into Friday night. Western and central NM look
to remain on the drier end thanks to the dry northwest flow from the
California upper high. However, outflow boundaries from the storms
in eastern NM will surge through the gaps of the central mountain
chain Friday evening and night and bring a gusty east canyon wind to
the ABQ and Santa Fe Metros.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1138 AM MDT Sat Jun 29 2024

A backdoor cold front has pushed through northeast NM this morning
and is currently positioned just south of a KCQC to KTCC line.
Moist upslope flow behind this front will allow showers and
thunderstorms to develop along and east of the Central Mt Chain
this afternoon. Severe storms are possible, with large hail
possible initially, but impacts will transition to damaging winds
and heavy rainfall which may result vsby. Areas along and east of
the Sangre de Cristo and Sandia Mts to the OK and TX borders have
the best chances at severe weather this afternoon and evening with
heavy rainfall potentially lasting through 12Z. Outflow may push
an east wind through the gaps of the Central Mt Chain at KSAF and
KABQ tonight, but latest model guidance suggest that outflow from
storms elsewhere may interfere with a strong gap wind. Thus, it
may be more moderate in nature or winds may be from the N or NW.
Additional storms will develop this afternoon across both western
and north central NM as well with brief cig and/or vsby reductions
possible. Storms across western NM will diminish around sunset.
Low cigs are likely across NE NM overnight.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 300 PM MDT Sat Jun 29 2024

A prolonged period of active, wet weather is on tap for the next
week, though favored areas for precipitation will change daily.
After sunset tonight, storms with heavy rainfall will favor north
central and northeast NM thru sunrise. On Sunday, the moisture plume
will shift westward and storms will favor far western and northern
areas. The moisture plume shifts back eastward on Monday then will
focus from west to east across central NM on Tuesday. Widespread
rainfall is expected Wednesday before a downtick in storm coverage
is expected Thursday, however, a backdoor cold front across eastern
NM on Friday will be another focus for thunderstorms. Heavy rainfall
and flash flooding is possible daily.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  67  91  66  86 /  30  80  60  50
Dulce...........................  55  84  54  83 /  50  80  60  60
Cuba............................  60  86  59  81 /  60  60  60  80
Gallup..........................  59  89  59  83 /  40  70  60  60
El Morro........................  59  84  58  80 /  50  60  70  80
Grants..........................  59  88  60  83 /  50  60  60  80
Quemado.........................  60  87  59  81 /  30  50  70  80
Magdalena.......................  65  88  65  84 /  50  20  50  70
Datil...........................  60  85  60  80 /  50  30  60  80
Reserve.........................  59  91  58  87 /  40  40  80  70
Glenwood........................  68  94  67  92 /  50  40  80  70
Chama...........................  52  76  51  76 /  60  80  70  70
Los Alamos......................  61  82  63  81 /  70  60  40  70
Pecos...........................  59  83  59  82 /  70  40  30  60
Cerro/Questa....................  51  79  51  78 /  80  70  40  60
Red River.......................  49  71  49  71 /  80  80  30  60
Angel Fire......................  51  74  48  77 /  80  70  20  50
Taos............................  57  83  58  84 /  80  60  30  50
Mora............................  54  79  54  82 /  80  60  20  50
Espanola........................  63  90  64  89 /  70  50  30  50
Santa Fe........................  63  84  62  83 /  70  40  30  50
Santa Fe Airport................  64  88  63  86 /  70  40  30  50
Albuquerque Foothills...........  69  92  69  89 /  60  20  40  70
Albuquerque Heights.............  70  93  70  91 /  60  20  30  50
Albuquerque Valley..............  69  95  69  93 /  60  10  30  50
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  69  94  69  91 /  60  20  40  60
Belen...........................  68  96  68  93 /  60  10  30  50
Bernalillo......................  68  94  69  92 /  60  20  30  50
Bosque Farms....................  67  95  66  92 /  60  10  30  50
Corrales........................  68  95  68  92 /  60  20  30  60
Los Lunas.......................  67  96  66  92 /  60  10  30  50
Placitas........................  67  90  67  88 /  60  20  30  50
Rio Rancho......................  69  94  69  91 /  60  20  30  60
Socorro.........................  71  97  71  95 /  50  10  30  50
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  61  85  63  83 /  60  20  30  60
Tijeras.........................  64  88  64  86 /  60  20  30  60
Edgewood........................  63  87  62  86 /  60  20  30  50
Moriarty/Estancia...............  62  88  58  86 /  60  20  30  50
Clines Corners..................  60  82  58  83 /  60  20  20  40
Mountainair.....................  62  88  62  86 /  60  20  30  50
Gran Quivira....................  61  88  61  87 /  60  20  30  50
Carrizozo.......................  66  90  67  90 /  40  20  20  30
Ruidoso.........................  59  83  59  81 /  30  30  20  40
Capulin.........................  59  81  61  86 /  80  40   5  30
Raton...........................  60  85  59  88 /  80  50   5  30
Springer........................  61  87  61  91 /  80  40   5  30
Las Vegas.......................  58  82  59  83 /  80  30  20  40
Clayton.........................  62  86  67  93 /  80  30   0   5
Roy.............................  62  84  64  88 /  80  30   5  20
Conchas.........................  68  93  70  96 /  70  10   5  10
Santa Rosa......................  67  89  68  91 /  60  10   5  20
Tucumcari.......................  67  94  69  97 /  60   5   0   0
Clovis..........................  69  95  69  96 /  30   5   0   0
Portales........................  70  96  69  96 /  20   0   0   0
Fort Sumner.....................  71  94  71  95 /  40   0   5   5
Roswell.........................  74  99  72 100 /  20   0   0   5
Picacho.........................  67  91  66  92 /  20  10  10  30
Elk.............................  62  88  62  90 /  20  20  20  30

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through late tonight for NMZ214-215-221>223-226>232.

&&

SHORT TERM...34
LONG TERM....71
AVIATION...34