A solitary late-night thunderstorm turned out to be one of the most prolific hail producers of the season in south central Nebraska. The storm erupted in Lincoln County and then rolled east-southeast across Dawson County.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS GID wrote it up.
A solitary late-night thunderstorm turned out to be one of the most prolific hail producers of the season in south central Nebraska.
The storm erupted in Lincoln County and then rolled east-southeast across Dawson County. Satellite and ground truth observations suggested approximately 150 square miles of wind and hail impacts along the storm’s path. The town of Gothenburg (and locations to the north of town) got the ball rolling with reports of 2.75 diameter hail across the north side of town causing damage to windows, roofs, siding and vehicles. A 70 mph wind gust was measured on the Nebraska State Mesonet System at Wild Horse Golf Course. However, the community of Cozad took the brunt of the beastly supercell. Hail up to 4 in diameter pummeled the town and left very few structures spared from damage. Cozad Community Hospital diverted patients to other facilities, temporarily closed the front entrance and lost all phone lines as the storm roared through. The Cozad City Pool was forced to close. Hail, wind and water damage occurred at Cozad Public Schools during an ongoing renovation. Damage to the auditorium and offices resulted in the need for alternative student and staff space for several weeks into the school year. One injury was reported to a person who was caught outside, sustaining cuts, bruises and losing consciousness. The thunderstorm moved southeast and slid just southwest of Lexington before dying out in northern Phelps county. Tens of millions of dollars of property and crop damage occurred along the thunderstorm’s 27-mile long path.
A couple hours later, isolated thunderstorms in Sherman, Buffalo and Hall counties produced 65 mph winds and hail near Ravenna and north of Wood River. Crop damage and downed power lines were reported.
The thunderstorm formed along a sagging frontal boundary. Mid-level lapse rates were steep in the region and low-level moisture convergence increased along the front. The supercell formed on the tail end of a short wave traversing the Dakotas, likely owing its high intensity to the favorable right-rear region of a 300 MB jet streak to the northeast providing strong upper diffluence in the area. Though instability was clearly available with MUCAPE values of 2500 J/kg, a warm layer in the middle atmosphere was a limiting factor to more widespread storm coverage in the area.
The Storm Prediction Center included a large part of Nebraska in a Slight Risk for severe weather highlighted the potential for large hail in southwest Nebraska. However, due to the limited coverage of the severe weather, no watches were issued.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Hastings, NE wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jun 28, 11:45 PM CST, 42 minutes earlier. Its key messages:
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hastings NE 1245 AM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - There is a Marginal (1/5) to Slight (2/5) Risk for severe thunderstorms this evening for the area, with wind being the main threat with any storms that are able to develop. A Marginal Risk for Excessive Rainfall has also been put out for the area. - The weekend is looking pleasant with cooler temperatures and periodic chances (20-50%) for showers and thunderstorms mainly Saturday night through Sunday. - The weekend is looking pleasant with cooler temperatures and periodic chances (20-50%) for showers and thunderstorms mainly Saturday night through Sunday. - Areas north of Interstate 80 have been outlooked in a Day 4 risk area for severe weather by the Storm Prediction Center. This will be something to keep an eye on as we get closer to the event. - Independence Day will be hot with highs ranging from the mid-80s to low 90s. There is a 20-30% chance of showers and thunderstorms. && .UPDATE... Issued at 734 PM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024 -- Various thoughts on thunderstorm/severe potential through the rest of the evening-overnight: - As largely expected, we have remained storm-free SO FAR this evening, with robust severe storms along the very leading edges of the synoptic cold front firing up "safely" southeast of our coverage area (CWA) over northeast KS. Meanwhile, any (so far weak) storms developing off the High Plains of the NE/CO/KS border area have remained well to our west. -- Between now and roughly 2 AM: - Obviously the MILLION DOLLAR QUESTION is whether (and to what degree) storms and possible severe weather will impact our CWA? - Unlike last evening (when by now it was becoming quite clear that we were not going to see much mainly due to stronger capping), tonight's capping situation is perhaps a LITTLE weaker (but with 700 millibar temps still a good 12-13C). Otherwise, the environment is certainly supportive of at least isolated severe, with mixed-layer CAPE solidly 1500-2500 J/kg and deep-layer/effective shear 40+KT (these parameters would support east-southeast tracking supercells. - Leaning on the last few HRRR runs as much as anything (usually a reasonable bet in the very short-term), it has trended a bit more aggressive with its depiction of isolated to perhaps scattered storms (a few severe?) invading our western counties 9-11 PM, and then gradually weakening as they slide farther east into our CWA between 11 PM-2 AM. Interestingly, the HRRR focuses on two separate areas for greatest storm potential: 1) one near/south of the KS border (which seems most reasonable based on upstream radar trends)...2) another mainly north of I-80, which seems a bit more questionable but also plausible, as RAP forecast soundings suggest our northern zones will be most prone to realizing elevated instability release around 1000 J/kg with storms based up around 750 millibars (these would likely be more of a hail threat with perhaps penny to quarter size potential). The former area near/south of the KS border would (in theory) pose more of a damaging wind threat...particularly if they organize a surging cold pool. - PLEASE NOTE: because of residual capping/weak forcing aloft, it is also quite possible that storm coverage/intensity again "underachieves" this evening, which is why chances/PoPs have been intentionally held UNDER 50% at this time. -- After roughly 2 AM: - In one change from previous forecast, have lingered/added at least slight PoPs (20%) to the entire CWA through the late night/early-AM hours, as both HRRR/NAMNest are now more suggestive that at least isolated storms (possibly marginally- severe?) could persist especially within counties along/north of I-80 even through around sunrise. - It is possible that small shower/thunderstorm chances may even need lingered into the official Saturday daytime forecast period (which starts at 7 AM) mainly in our northern zones, but with higher-res models suggesting that even elevated instability should be on a downward trend by then, will likely defer to overnight forecaster to decide whether this is warranted. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 401 PM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024 The heat continues this afternoon across portions of south central Nebraska and north central Kansas. Current temperatures are primarily in the 80s to low 90s, with a cold front pushing through the state. The front has moved through the Tri-Cities, with winds mainly out of the north to northwest. A few showers moved through the area earlier today, with additional chances mainly after 7PM. Thunderstorms will start across the western portions of the area, expanding in coverage to the east as the evening progresses. SBCAPE of 2000+ J/kg, and MLCAPE of 1000+ J/kg are expected along with DCAPE values of 1100+ J/kg, ML lapse rates around 7 C/km, and steep low-level lapse rates in the west. The main concern for any severe weather this evening will be wind. Some hail, an isolated tornado, and localized flooding may also be a concern. The Storm Prediction Center has outlooked portions of the area for either a Marginal Risk (1 of 5) or Slight Risk (2 of 5) for tonight. The main areas of concern for severe weather will be along and ahead of the front (which includes the southern and western portions of the area. Additionally, the Weather Prediction Center has outlooked us in a Marginal Risk for Excessive Rainfall for this evening. Heading into the overnight hours, thunderstorm chances (20-30%) persist, with strong to severe storms not expected. The cold front will bring in some cooler air for the weekend, making conditions very pleasant. Expected high temperatures will range from the mid- 70s to low 80s for Nebraska and the upper 70s to low 80s for Kansas. Lows will be primarily in the 50s and 60s on Sunday morning, and the 60s on Monday morning. As far as precipitation chances are concerned for the weekend, a few showers and thunderstorms may linger into the morning on Saturday. The rest of the day is looking dry, with additional showers and thunderstorms late. Showers and thunderstorms will be possible again on Sunday. Monday, an upper ridge moves to the east, with southwest flow in place over the High Plains. Temperatures are expected to climb with warm air advecting into the region. The current forecast as most areas in Nebraska in the 90s and north central Kansas in the 90s to around 100 degrees. Heat index values may approach or exceed 105 degrees, which may result in heat headlines needing to be considered. The heat is expected to continue into Tuesday, although, slightly cooler temperatures are expected. Periodic shower and thunderstorm activity is expected through mid- week. Any one area may not see shower and thunderstorm activity each day. The Storm Prediction Center has put out a Day 4 Outlook for severe weather for areas along and north of Interstate 80. The Weather Prediction Center has outlook the northeastern portion of the Hastings CWA with a Marginal Risk for Excessive Rainfall. For those planning on outdoor activities for Independence Day, there is a 20-30% chance of showers and thunderstorms through the day. Daytime highs are currently forecast for the mid-80s (north) to low 90s (south). Continue to monitor the forecast for the latest updates. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 1239 AM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024 For KGRI/KEAR Airports: VFR through the period. Could still see some iso-scat shwrs/storms next few hrs, but then expect dry conditions from around dawn through the end of the period. Some models have a brief period of MVFR CIGs early this morning, but kept as a SCT group as current obs are less aggressive. Winds will vary from NE to NNW through the period, with highest speeds 12-14kt and gusts 17-21kt being from mid-morning through early aftn. Light NE winds and mainly clear skies expected Sat eve/night. Confidence: Medium. && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. KS...None. && UPDATE...Pfannkuch DISCUSSION...Wekesser AVIATION...Thies
Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED National Weather Service Hastings NE 1027 PM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024 KSZ005>007-017>019-NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087- 300330- Phillips-Smith-Jewell-Rooks-Osborne-Mitchell-Valley-Greeley-Nance- Sherman-Howard-Merrick-Polk-Dawson-Buffalo-Hall-Hamilton-York- Gosper-Phelps-Kearney-Adams-Clay-Fillmore-Furnas-Harlan-Franklin- Webster-Nuckolls-Thayer- 1027 PM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for south central Nebraska and portions of north central Kansas. .DAY ONE...Overnight. Through sunrise Saturday, the entire area stands at least a small chance of spotty thunderstorm activity. While most places will not see storms, and most storms that do occur will not be severe, there is at least a Marginal Risk that a few storms could become severe, especially prior to 4 AM. The main hazards would be hail up to around the size of half dollars, and/or wind gusts up to around 60 MPH. It appears that overnight storms will tend to mainly favor two separate parts of our area: 1) along and south of the Nebraska- Kansas border...2) within Nebraska counties along and north of Interstate 80. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday. Although most areas should be thunderstorm-free Saturday daytime and evening, intermittent thunderstorm chances return to various parts of our area late Saturday night and continue on through Thursday. Although details are still plenty unclear, the main time frame of concern for possible severe storms currently appears to be Monday afternoon and evening. The heat returns Monday and Tuesday, with temperatures approaching 100 degrees in areas. Heat index values around 100 to 105 degrees are expected. The highest temperatures and heat index values will likely focus along and south of the Kansas-Nebraska border. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotters are encouraged to report any possible wind gusts of 50+ MPH and/or hail that might occur in parts of the area overnight. && More information may be obtained at the following web page: https://www.weather.gov/hastings Pfannkuch
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1249 AM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024
NEZ060-290615-
Dawson NE-
1249 AM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN DAWSON COUNTY
THROUGH 115 AM CDT...
At 1248 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles northeast of Brady, or 26 miles east of North Platte, moving
east at 25 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and nickel size hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
possible.
This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of northwestern Dawson
County.
This includes Interstate 80 between mile markers 209 and 218.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
&&
LAT...LON 4105 10022 4105 9985 4087 10002 4088 10023
TIME...MOT...LOC 0548Z 282DEG 22KT 4109 10027
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH
ADPThe North Platte radar (KLNX), 117 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 06:26 UTC.
3 thunderstorm wind, 3 hail. Local standard time, as filed.
A wind gust of 70 MPH was measured by a Nebraska State Mesonet station located two miles northwest of Gothenburg.
There widespread reports of quarter to baseball size hail along and near this approximately 27 mile long path, causing widespread damage to vehicles, homes, and crops. The largest hail and most widespread vehicle and building damage occurred in Cozad. This hail was accompanied by wind gusts likely at least 50 MPH.
Emergency management reported widespread significant damage across Cozad from large hail up to four inches in diameter. The local hospital was damaged enough from broken windows, roof damage, and leaking water that patients had to be transferred to nearby hospitals for a period of time. One injury was reported, a person was caught outside in the storm, suffering cuts and bruises and losing consciousness.
Wind gusts estimated to be near 65 MPH resulted in several downed tree limbs of six to eight inches in diameter.
Wind gusts estimated to be near 65 MPH resulted in tree damage and downed power lines in Ravenna. Wind was accompanied by pea to dime size hail.
Hail up to quarter size hail was reported, likely accompanied by wind gusts near 50 MPH. Crops in the area were severely damaged.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Nebraska in 2024Every state in 2024This day in weather historyWarnings in Nebraska, June 2024
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1182389, 1182401, 1182398, 1182392, 1182394, 1182395.