High Wind in New Mexico, December 31, 2024

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1050 PM CST Mon Dec 30 2024

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1049 PM CST Mon Dec 30 2024

- Dry, breezy, and warm conditions will lead to extreme fire
  danger across the area today.

- Windy conditions continue across the higher terrain and adjacent
  plains through this evening.

- A cold front moves through the region tonight, knocking
  temperatures back to below normal New Years Eve and New Years
  Day for most locations. Precipitation chances remain low.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Tuesday night)
Issued at 247 PM CST Mon Dec 30 2024

Surface low pressure has advanced into the vicinity of southeastern
KS this afternoon, while an attendant cold front has meanwhile
moved into northern and western OK and the adjacent Texas panhandle.
Breezy westerly to northwesterly winds remain in place across
much of our forecast area ahead of the front this afternoon, while
low level thermal ridging is also aiding in much above normal
temperatures in the 70s to lower 80s. Surface dewpoints have
tanked into the single digits and teens, resulting in afternoon RH
values in the single digits to around 10% over our entire region.
The breezy, dry, and abnormally warm temperatures are all leading
to very high to extreme fire danger. See the Fire Weather
discussion below for additional details. A tight MSLP gradient on
the back side of the passing trough has resulted in breezy W/NW
winds of 25-35 mph with some gusts in excess of 45 mph across
portions of the Eddy/Lea county plains, the northern Permian
Basin, and areas adjacent of the Guadalupe/Davis Mountains this
afternoon. Winds have decreased slightly over the past hour or
two, but will leave the Wind Advisory intact for now. The earlier
high winds over the Guadalupe Mountains have also tapered
somewhat over the past hour, but will also leave the High Wind
Warning in place for now given potential for occasional gusts
over 50-60 mph still possible for the next few hours.

The cold front is still on track to push through the forecast area
tonight, with winds shifting northeasterly to easterly behind this
feature. Much cooler temperatures can be expected for most areas
behind the front tonight and Tuesday, with lows falling back down
into the 30s over most locations north of I-10. Highs on Tuesday
should only reach into the mid 50s to near 60 over the northern
half of the area. The front may not quite make it to the southern
Big Bend/Rio Grande, so highs in these areas should warm into the
upper 60s to upper 70s again Tuesday afternoon. Colder temperatures
in the mid 20s to around freezing will more than likely impact
much of the southeast New Mexico plains, central/northern Permian
Basin, and the Upper Trans Pecos region on Tuesday night. Dry
conditions will persist through the Monday night-Tuesday night
period.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 247 PM CST Mon Dec 30 2024

No significant changes to the extended forecast period. It still
looks like we will start of the New Year with temperatures near to
slightly below normal in the 50s and 60s. Temperatures then trend
warmer back into the 60s and 70s for Thursday through Saturday.
The next cold front still looks to move through our forecast area
late in the weekend as a vigorous shortwave trough crosses the
southern Plains. Temperatures may trend slightly cooler by Sunday
with breezy westerly to northwesterly winds returning ahead of the
approaching front. A colder airmass with highs in the 40s and 50s
may settle into the area for Monday of next week. No signs of
appreciable moisture return at this time, so a dry forecast
continues through the extended period.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1049 PM CST Mon Dec 30 2024

A weak cold front moves through the area over by 12Z shifting
winds from the northeast and east. VFR conditions will continue.

Hennig

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 247 PM CST Mon Dec 30 2024

A Red Flag Warning remains in effect through the rest of the
afternoon as critically low RHs, windy conditions, and above
normal temperatures combine for a favorable environment for fire
growth and spread. If possible, continue to avoid any outdoor
activities with open flames or sparks. The downslope winds and low
level thermal ridging is aiding temperatures in the 70s for most
locations with 80s seen across the Lower Trans Pecos and Big Bend.
ERCs areawide have increased into the 50-75th percentile indicating
that fuels have cured in recent days. A cold front moves through
the region late tonight as winds decrease. This will alleviate
fire weather concerns through the rest of the week as temperatures
settle back towards normal.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               37  55  32  53 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                 35  57  31  53 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                   44  67  38  59 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton            41  64  36  59 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass           41  57  34  53 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                    33  55  29  51 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                    32  67  34  63 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport     36  58  32  53 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                   37  58  34  55 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                     34  61  34  55 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM....21
AVIATION...10