Strong Wind in Missouri, December 31, 2024

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1100 PM CST Mon Dec 30 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A slight chance of thunder is forecast with increasing shower
  chances tonight.

- Seasonably colder temperatures are forecast for the back half
  of the week and through the weekend.

- Our next big chance of precipitation comes in by late weekend.
  It is too early to tell how much will be rain versus snow or
  ice, but it's something to watch closely for now.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1255 PM CST Mon Dec 30 2024

Low pressure will take shape and track across MO/IL into IN
tonight. The models are showing upwards to a couple hundred
Joules of MUCAPE available in the lower 1 KM, so we've included
a slight chance mention for about a 6 hour best chance window
overnight. Showers may linger into/thru the day tmrw even with
the wave's quick passage, as the pcpn shield is drug across the
FA behind the departing wave. We trend colder after this
system's passage and that cold air more or less sticks around
into the weekend.

Another passing wave, this one weaker with little to no surface
reflection, may produce some light pcpn mainly across the I-64
corridor upon its passage Thursday night. Its largely moisture
starved so little more than a dusting is anticipated with its
passage.

A bigger system is coming into the forecast picture for the late
weekend into early next week. It spreads pcpn chances across the
entirety of the FA and much will depend upon the track of the
low(s) as the temperatures here at that time will be much
colder. Snow/ice chances exist and this one is not moisture
starved, so we'll have to keep an eye on it as it evolves for
its headline/accumulation potential. For now, it's a little too
far out in time to get too specific on p-type duration or
resultant amounts. But after its passage, it'll offer another
reinforcing cold blast that keeps the arctic cold here running
into/thru next week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1100 PM CST Mon Dec 30 2024

Showers and a thunderstorm or two are developing across parts of
southern Illinois and adjacent areas of Kentucky and Missouri.
Ceilings have stayed a little higher than expected this evening
and that may persist for another few hours before the low
pressure system gets closer likely bringing low MVFR cigs with
it. Wind will be a factor behind the low/cold front with
westerly gusts 25-30kt possible Tuesday. Low MVFR ceilings are
forecast much of the day and may be stubborn to clear behind the
front.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.

&&

DISCUSSION...
AVIATION...JGG

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Paducah KY
907 AM CST Mon Dec 30 2024

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-
100-107>112-114-311100-
Jefferson-Wayne IL-Edwards-Wabash-Perry IL-Franklin-Hamilton-
White-Jackson-Williamson-Saline-Gallatin-Union-Johnson-Pope-
Hardin-Alexander-Pulaski-Massac-Gibson-Pike-Posey-Vanderburgh-
Warrick-Spencer-Fulton-Hickman-Carlisle-Ballard-McCracken-Graves-
Livingston-Marshall-Calloway-Crittenden-Lyon-Trigg-Caldwell-
Union KY-Webster-Hopkins-Christian-Henderson-Daviess-McLean-
Muhlenberg-Todd-Perry MO-Bollinger-Cape Girardeau-Wayne MO-Carter-
Ripley-Butler-Stoddard-Scott-Mississippi-New Madrid-
907 AM CST Mon Dec 30 2024 /1007 AM EST Mon Dec 30 2024/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southern
Illinois, southwest Indiana, western Kentucky, and southeast
Missouri.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

A potential winter storm system may affect the region beginning
Sunday into Sunday night. Accumulating snow or ice and associated
travel impacts cannot be ruled out. Stay tuned for updates to the
forecast over the next few days.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed.