Heavy rain occurring over the course of two days fell along the eastern slopes of the Sacramento Mountains in south-central NM, estimated to have totaled three to six inches from local reports. This heavy rain collected within the normally dry Rio Penasco running eastward through southwestern Chaves County August 31st.
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The episode as NWS ABQ wrote it up.
Heavy rain occurring over the course of two days fell along the eastern slopes of the Sacramento Mountains in south-central NM, estimated to have totaled three to six inches from local reports. This heavy rain collected within the normally dry Rio Penasco running eastward through southwestern Chaves County August 31st. River flooding was reported just west of the Chaves and Eddy County line, just south of U.S. Highway 82. A minor low water crossing along Cauhape Ranch Road was overtopped by peak flood waters reaching over 9 feet and well out of the banks.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Albuquerque, NM wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Aug 31, 5:08 AM MST, 5 hours 22 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 608 AM MDT Sat Aug 31 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 218 AM MDT Sat Aug 31 2024 Fewer showers and thunderstorms are forecast this weekend and into early next week as drier air settles into much of the Land of Enchantment. The storms that do develop will tend to be more sparse and not as efficient at producing rainfall. An upper level disturbance may move over southeastern areas of New Mexico into Monday and Tuesday, possibly increasing showers and storms there, but otherwise rain chances will be quite low. Temperatures will run slightly cooler than normal through early next week, but by the middle to latter part of the week, readings will be climbing to more seasonable numbers. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Sunday) Issued at 218 AM MDT Sat Aug 31 2024 A high pressure system aloft building over the central Rockies will steer drier air over the forecast area from the northeast today, and especially Sunday, when there will be a downtick in the coverage and the size of wetting footprints of thunderstorms with each day. Scattered-to-isolated showers and thunderstorms will favor western and north central areas today, with only a slight chance for showers and storms from the south central mountains eastward. Models depict few, if any, showers and thunderstorms developing Sunday. If any do get going Sunday, they will probably be over the southern and western fringe of the forecast area. In the wake of the recent backdoor cold front, and another easterly wind shift that will develop across the forecast area on Sunday, high temperatures this weekend will vary from near 1991-2020 averages along the western and northern borders of the forecast area to as much as 8 degrees below the averages over eastern areas. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday night through Friday) Issued at 218 AM MDT Sat Aug 31 2024 The upper high will begin to reorient itself on Monday, stretching from CO southwestward into AZ and the upper Baja peninsula. While this is occurring, a weak subtropical low will be present on its southeastern periphery, but the exact whereabouts are still be debated by deterministic forecast models. The GFS and GEFS are essentially the most northeastern outliers, positioning this weak circulation over southeastern NM and west TX while most other deterministic and ensemble members place the feature closer to Chihuahua or even the western border of it with Sonora. This will have implications for showers and thunderstorms in southeastern NM and west TX with a GFS/GEFS solution being much wetter, mainly for Eddy and Lea counties in MAF's CWA, but perhaps into portions of our Chaves county zones. Scattered to near likely (40-60 percent) POPs in these areas look suffice with a very quick drop off farther north and west. Temperatures would still be running below normal by 3 to 12 degrees on Monday with the biggest departures in southeastern zones due to more cloud cover. Wherever the remnants of the aforementioned subtropical low end up, they will shift farther east southeastward into Tuesday, carrying associated moisture and precipitation along with it. Isolated to scattered showers and storms cannot be ruled out in our east central to southeastern plains, but remaining areas would have rather bleak chances for rainfall Tuesday. Temperatures would rise 3 to 5 degrees with subtle height increases occurring on Tuesday. By Wednesday, the high would remain over southern CA, AZ and western NM with dry air limiting storm initiation. This drier air and another pressure height gain of a decameter or two will also yield a few more degrees of warming. The pattern turns a bit more dynamic into Thursday as a short wave and associated cold front slide east of the Rockies and into the central and southern plains. This shortwave and attendant front would clip northeastern NM, likely providing enough forcing for late afternoon convective initiation which could transpire into a small MCS over the eastern NM plains Thursday evening. The resulting and enhanced cold pool would then be expected to work westward, reintroducing at least a slight chance for showers and storms on Friday over the Continental Divide and the central mountain chain. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 541 AM MDT Sat Aug 31 2024 Satellite imagery early this morning shows areas of low clouds and patchy fog producing MVFR and IFR conditions along the east slopes of the central and south central mountains, with a broad, roughly 5,000 FT cloud deck across the southeast plains. These low clouds and fog banks will burn off during mid-to-late morning. There will be a slight chance for showers and thunderstorms along and east of the Sacramento Mountains today, and a better chance of showers and thunderstorms with scattered-to-isolated coverage over north central, central, and western areas this afternoon and early evening. Storm motion will be toward the southwest at speeds under 10 KT. Stronger cells will be capable of producing wet microbursts with localized, brief, and erratic wind gusts up to 45 KT, especially over northwest areas. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 218 AM MDT Sat Aug 31 2024 Critical fire weather conditions are not expected through at least the next seven days. A high pressure system aloft will build over the central Rockies today through Monday, then recenter over AZ Tuesday and Wednesday with a ridge axis extending northeastward and eventually eastward over NM. The upper high will initially steer drier air over the fire weather forecast area today and Sunday with decreasing coverage of thunderstorms each day, and shrinking wetting footprints. Models vary on whether or not a disturbance lifting northeastward out of northern Mexico will cross southeast and east central NM with higher humidities and thunderstorms Sunday night through Tuesday. Confidence is low that the system will actually increase precip over much of the east central plains. The ECMWF and Canadian Models show the disturbance tracking northeastward over TX from northern Mexico rather than NM. The operational run of the GFS is an outlier bringing the system farther west over eastern NM. The operational run of the NAM tracks the system somewhere in between. Models agree better on an upper level trough clipping northeast NM in northwest flow aloft Thursday and Thursday night sending a gusty and moist backdoor front through the state with increased precipitation chances over north central and east central areas Thursday and Thursday night, then as far west as the continental divide on Friday. After high temperatures near to several degrees below 1991-2020 averages today through Monday, readings will climb with the ridge axis overhead Tuesday and Wednesday, then fall with the backdoor front at the end of the week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 87 60 87 59 / 20 20 0 0 Dulce........................... 84 43 84 46 / 20 10 5 5 Cuba............................ 81 50 80 51 / 20 20 5 0 Gallup.......................... 84 52 83 51 / 20 20 10 0 El Morro........................ 78 52 78 48 / 30 20 10 5 Grants.......................... 82 51 81 49 / 20 10 10 0 Quemado......................... 80 50 78 49 / 30 20 10 5 Magdalena....................... 79 55 78 54 / 10 5 10 5 Datil........................... 77 49 76 49 / 20 5 10 5 Reserve......................... 87 51 84 51 / 20 20 20 10 Glenwood........................ 89 59 86 58 / 30 20 20 10 Chama........................... 78 44 77 44 / 20 10 5 5 Los Alamos...................... 79 55 79 54 / 20 20 5 0 Pecos........................... 76 50 76 47 / 20 20 5 5 Cerro/Questa.................... 78 46 77 47 / 20 0 0 0 Red River....................... 68 41 66 38 / 20 0 0 0 Angel Fire...................... 71 35 69 30 / 20 0 0 0 Taos............................ 81 45 80 46 / 20 5 0 0 Mora............................ 76 44 74 45 / 20 20 5 5 Espanola........................ 87 53 86 52 / 20 20 0 5 Santa Fe........................ 79 54 79 53 / 20 20 5 5 Santa Fe Airport................ 82 53 83 51 / 20 20 5 5 Albuquerque Foothills........... 85 61 85 58 / 20 10 5 5 Albuquerque Heights............. 87 59 87 60 / 20 10 0 5 Albuquerque Valley.............. 89 58 89 53 / 20 10 0 5 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 87 60 87 59 / 20 10 0 5 Belen........................... 87 57 87 56 / 10 5 0 5 Bernalillo...................... 89 58 89 56 / 20 10 0 0 Bosque Farms.................... 87 55 87 53 / 20 10 0 5 Corrales........................ 89 59 89 57 / 20 10 0 5 Los Lunas....................... 87 57 86 54 / 20 10 0 5 Placitas........................ 85 58 84 55 / 20 10 0 5 Rio Rancho...................... 89 59 88 58 / 20 10 0 5 Socorro......................... 89 60 88 61 / 10 5 5 5 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 79 51 78 50 / 20 10 5 5 Tijeras......................... 81 54 80 53 / 20 10 5 5 Edgewood........................ 81 48 80 51 / 20 5 5 5 Moriarty/Estancia............... 82 45 80 49 / 20 5 5 5 Clines Corners.................. 76 48 74 49 / 10 5 0 10 Mountainair..................... 79 49 77 50 / 10 5 5 5 Gran Quivira.................... 79 49 77 52 / 10 5 5 10 Carrizozo....................... 82 56 80 59 / 20 5 10 20 Ruidoso......................... 72 50 71 52 / 20 5 20 30 Capulin......................... 78 47 76 48 / 0 0 0 0 Raton........................... 83 48 81 50 / 5 0 0 0 Springer........................ 82 48 82 50 / 5 5 0 0 Las Vegas....................... 78 46 77 47 / 10 10 0 5 Clayton......................... 82 53 81 57 / 0 0 0 5 Roy............................. 79 51 79 54 / 5 5 0 10 Conchas......................... 84 54 85 60 / 0 0 0 10 Santa Rosa...................... 81 54 81 59 / 0 0 5 20 Tucumcari....................... 83 53 84 56 / 0 0 5 20 Clovis.......................... 85 58 85 61 / 5 0 10 30 Portales........................ 86 57 86 61 / 5 0 10 30 Fort Sumner..................... 84 56 85 62 / 5 5 5 30 Roswell......................... 86 64 87 66 / 10 10 10 40 Picacho......................... 80 56 79 60 / 20 5 10 30 Elk............................. 79 52 78 55 / 20 5 20 30 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && SHORT TERM...44 LONG TERM....52 AVIATION...44
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
1 flood. Local standard time, as filed.
A trained spotter shared video of flood waters within the normally dry Rio Penasco well outside of banks overtopping a low water crossing. These flood waters were a response to an estimated three to six inches of rainfall over the prior two days over the nearby Sacramento Mountains.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in New Mexico in 2024Every state in 2024This day in weather historyWarnings in New Mexico, August 2024
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1199167.