Rip Current in Florida, August 31, 2024

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
643 AM CDT Sat Aug 31 2024

...New AVIATION...

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 643 AM CDT Sat Aug 31 2024

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the forecast
period, with perhaps some temporary MVFR ceilings and/or
visibility late morning and afternoon hours as shower and
thunderstorms once again develop. Added PROB30 groups to the MOB
and BFM TAF sites from 3119/3124, as these sites have the better
chance of occurrence. East winds around 5 knots will turn more
southeasterly around 10 knots by late morning into the afternoon
hours. /22

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 435 AM CDT Sat Aug 31 2024/

..New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

NEAR TERM...
(Now through Sunday night)
Issued at 431 AM CDT Sat Aug 31 2024

The mid/upper ridge will breakdown as an upper trough over the
Great Lakes region digs southward over the eastern CONUS over the
weekend. A surface ridge extending from the Western Atlantic
across the Southeast States will weaken through the period.
Isolated to scattered showers and storms will first develop across
Southeast Mississippi and Coastal Alabama this morning and spread
inland with the sea-breeze throughout the day. By late this
afternoon, the highest coverage (30-40%) will occur along and west
of the Alabama River, with isolated coverage across the eastern
half of the forecast area. A few showers and storms should linger
through mid-evening across the western portion, followed by dry
conditions area-wide overnight. Isolated to scattered showers and
storms will redevelop around daybreak Sunday, and again advance
inland with the sea-breeze throughout the day.

Highs today and Sunday will range from 89 to 94 degrees with heat
indices as high as 103 degrees for some locations. Lows tonight
and Sunday night should range from 69 to 73 degrees inland, and
from 74 to 78 degrees closer to the coast. A Moderate risk of rip
currents is forecast through the weekend. /22

SHORT AND LONG TERM...
(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 431 AM CDT Sat Aug 31 2024

An upper level shortwave trough over the Southeast moves off into
Monday night, quickly being replaced by an upper ridge building
west from the Caribbean over the northern Gulf coast. A surface
ridge stretching west over the Florida Peninsula shifts north to
over the East Coast and builds southwest, with a stronger
southeasterly flow bringing Gulf and tropical Atlantic moisture
inland over more of the Southeast (as opposed to just the Lower
Mississippi River Valley and nearby). Moisture levels rise to
around 2", plus or minus, through Tuesday, with rain chances
increasing though mid week in response. Another mean upper trough
moves over the Southeast the end of the week, beginning to shift
moisture over the region off to the east for the weekend. The
uptick in rain coverage through the week will help to bring a drop
in temperatures, from a bit above seasonal norms on Monday
(around 90 to near 95) to mid 80s to near 90 on Wednesday through
Friday. Daytime heat indices in the 100-107 degree range Monday
drop to below 100 area-wide by Thursday. Guidance is in good
agreement with the synoptics the week, so have good confidence
with the current package.

The more organized southeasterly flow with this packages is
bringing an uptick in swell to area beaches through the week. A
decrease in the tidal cycle will help to moderate the chance of
rip currents, with a low to moderate risk over more of the
forecast area.

Taking a look beyond the current package, guidance continues to
advertise a tropical wave passing south of Cuba next weekend,
organizing into a tropical system as it heads towards the southern
Gulf. Guidance has been generally consistent in taking this
system towards the Yucatan Peninsula. /16

MARINE...
Issued at 431 AM CDT Sat Aug 31 2024

No significant marine impacts expected throughout the week and
over the weekend as a light to moderate east to southeast flow
prevails. /22

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      90  73  91  73  95  73  90  72 /  40  20  20  20  50  40  80  70
Pensacola   90  77  91  77  92  76  88  75 /  20  10  20  20  50  50  90  70
Destin      91  77  92  78  92  77  90  76 /  20  10  20  30  50  50  80  70
Evergreen   94  71  95  71  94  71  91  70 /  20  10  20  10  40  20  70  50
Waynesboro  91  70  92  70  93  71  91  70 /  40  20  30  10  30  20  60  50
Camden      92  72  92  71  92  71  88  69 /  30  20  20  10  30  20  70  50
Crestview   94  71  94  72  95  72  91  72 /  20  10  20  20  50  40  80  60

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

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