Arizona, 2024Heat in Arizona, August 31, 2024
August 31, 2024 · NWS TWC · 1 event in 1 county or zone
Hot temperatures typically 3 to 6 degrees above normal were experienced across portions of southeast Arizona August 31 resulting in moderate HeatRisk. The Pima County Medical Examiner confirmed that heat was the primary cause of death for one individual found in the desert near Sells.
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- Deaths
- 1
- Injuries
- 0
- Property damage
- None recorded
- Crop damage
- None recorded
- Events
- 1
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
Hot temperatures typically 3 to 6 degrees above normal were experienced across portions of southeast Arizona August 31 resulting in moderate HeatRisk. The Pima County Medical Examiner confirmed that heat was the primary cause of death for one individual found in the desert near Sells.
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Tucson, AZ wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Aug 31, 8:56 AM MST, 1 hour 4 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Aug 31, 8:56 AM MST, 1 hour 4 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
856 AM MST Sat Aug 31 2024
.SYNOPSIS...Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms
through Sunday, then a drier conditions return next week. High
temperatures will be within a couple of degrees of normal through
early next week and trending above average by the middle to end of
the week.
&&
.UPDATE...Skies are mostly clear across the CWA with just a few
clouds in Pinal and Graham Counties. Atmospheric moisture is below
normal with GOES 16 PWAT values ranging from 0.80"-1.05". A very
weak cyclonic disturbance exists in western Sonora and could
provide some upper level support to storms today. Otherwise flow
is very weak in the mid-levels with 500 mb winds only around 5
knots. CAPE values will be low again today only around 500 J/kg.
The 31/12Z HREF shows scattered storm coverage with convective
initiation starting between 1-2 PM over the higher terrain and
continuing through sunset. With the weak environment and lower
moisture the main threats from storms will be gusty winds to 45
mph and brief heavy rainfall.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 300 AM MST Sat Aug 31 2024/
A broad high pressure system over the Intermountain west is
bringing an easterly flow to the area with enough moisture for a
chance of thunderstorms over the weekend.
The ridge will reorient into a blocking position across southern
CA and Arizona early in the new work week. The resulting weak
flow, loss of moisture and mid level warming / subsidence will
tamp down most thunderstorm activity through the week. Meanwhile,
with increasing heights and thicknesses we'll see several degrees
of heating the second half of the new week.
The monsoon isn't over, but we'll start to see longer breaks as we
head into September. We might manage better thunderstorm chances
again around next weekend or so, but ensemble means suggest the
overall pattern will remain relatively unfavorable into the second
week of September.
&&
.AVIATION...Valid through 01/12Z.
SKC to SCT to clouds around 10k-15k feet AGL, then SCT- BKN
clouds aft 31/19Z with ISOLD-SCT SHRA/TSRA developing. Wind gusts
up to 40 kts, brief heavy rain, small hail and mountain
obscurations possible with the stronger TSRA. Outside of strong
thunderstorm wind gusts, SFC wind 12 kts or less, favoring an
ELY/SELY direction. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF
amendments.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...There will be isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms through Sunday, with a much lower chance of storms
next week. Min RH values will be 20-30 percent in most valley
locations, with minimum's of 15-20 percent west of Tucson across
central/western Pima County. Outside of strong erratic
thunderstorm outflow winds, 20-foot winds will generally be 15 mph
or less, with afternoon/early evening gusts to 20 mph and light
winds overnight.
&&
.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
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Heat, Tohono O Odham Nation
- When
- August 31, 10:00 AM MST to 8:00 PM MST
- Where
- Tohono O Odham Nation forecast zone
- Deaths
- 1 direct, 0 indirect
- Reported by
- County Official
- Coordinates
- 32.501, -111.567 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)
Hot temperatures typically 3 to 6 degrees above normal were experienced across portions of southeast Arizona August 31 resulting in moderate HeatRisk. The Pima County Medical Examiner confirmed that heat was the primary cause of death for one individual found in the desert near Sells.
- Heat
- Heat below excessive heat criteria that still caused deaths, injuries or significant impacts.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
- Lightning Strike in Florida, August 31, 20241 death · 1 injured · 1 event
- Rip Current in Florida, August 31, 20241 death · 1 event
- Damaging Winds in West Virginia, August 31, 2024$31,000 · 50 kt wind · 28 events
- Flash Flood in New Mexico, August 31, 2024$50,000 · 1 event
- Flash Flooding and Damaging Winds in Virginia, August 31, 2024$24,000 · 60 kt wind · 11 events
- Damaging Winds in West Virginia, August 31, 2024$24,000 · 52 kt wind · 10 events
- Damaging Winds in Maryland, August 31, 2024$31,000 · 56 kt wind · 3 events
- Damaging Winds in Kentucky, August 31, 2024$14,000 · 53 kt wind · 11 events
- Flash Flooding and Damaging Winds in Pennsylvania, August 31, 2024$13,000 · 50 kt wind · 12 events
- Marine Thunderstorm Winds in Lake Superior, August 31, 202450 kt wind · 10 events
- Damaging Winds in Kentucky, August 31, 2024$14,000 · 50 kt wind · 2 events
- Damaging Winds in Virginia, August 31, 2024$10,000 · 52 kt wind · 8 events
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1209498.