High Wind in Nevada, October 27, 2024

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
1250 PM PDT Sun Oct 27 2024

.SYNOPSIS...

* It's here! Our impactful storm brings strong gusty winds, cooler
  weather, valley rain and Sierra snow showers.

* Wintry precipitation potential persists through Monday before
  tapering off by Tuesday afternoon.

* A brief break is expected around midweek before another
  unsettled storm system arrives for the second half of the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

* Winds: Observations this afternoon show widespread ridge wind
  gusts in the 60-80+ mph range, wind prone locations in the 50-60
  mph range, and valley areas solidly hitting 35-45 mph. Wind
  impacts so far include: several pilot reports of low level wind
  shear, moderate to severe turbulence, as well as high profile
  vehicle restrictions for some locations along the Hwy 395/I580
  corridor. Winds are projected to stay breezy overnight, especially
  for the foothill and ridgetop locations, until the cold front
  finally dives through Monday morning. Critical fire weather
  concerns are ongoing due to the extremely dry conditions and gusty
  winds, so check out the fire weather section for a post-discussion
  wrap up.

* Precipitation: While portions of northeastern CA will see some
  showers today, the majority of the region won't see valley rain
  and mountain snow until very late tonight into Monday. Snow
  levels and timing have remained fairly consistent with snow
  levels right around 7500-8000 feet today and dropping to near
  5500-6500 feet with the cold front on Monday. Snow probabilities
  still aren't stupendous since the best moisture and dynamics are
  dislocated from each other. That being said, through Tuesday
  morning the stats with this storm show a 70-80% chance of 4
  inches of snow in the highest Sierra spots, a 50% chance for at
  least an inch of snow in the Tahoe Basin, and a 5-10% chance of
  an inch for the North Valleys and Virginia City areas. The odds
  aren't great, but we can't rule out a comeback with stronger
  snow showers.

* Temperatures: After the cold front sprints through on Monday, we
  will have some pretty cold temperatures left on base. Breezy north
  winds combined with the cold temperatures will make for a brisk
  day on Tuesday. Wednesday morning features widespread hard freezes
  across the lineup. Prepare and winterize your irrigation and
  sprinklers systems before Tuesday and Wednesday morning, and be
  sure to protect vulnerable people, plants, and pets early this
  week.

* Late Week Projections: For Halloween it looks like another storm
  is set to step up to the plate. The bulk of this storm appears to
  slide right across OR-ID-MT, but it may drop far enough south to
  bring some enhanced breezes, low chances for precipitation near
  the CA/NV/OR border, and keep us on the cool side of the
  temperature spectrum. Sneak preview for beyond Halloween and the
  early days of November... it does appear that ensemble clusters
  throw a changeup at us with a ridge residing across the Eastern
  Pacific by the Nov 5th timeframe.

Edan

&&

.AVIATION...

* Strong gusty southwest winds will persist ahead of a cold front
  that is forecast to move through the area tonight and Monday
  morning. Latest projections have the front near a Susanville-
  Gerlach line at 06Z, into the Tahoe Basin/Reno-Carson City area 08-
  11Z, then accelerating through Mono-Mineral County Monday AM.
  FL100 winds 40-45 kts with gusts 25-35 kts at area terminals with
  moderate turbulence and periods of LLWS. Blowing dust may lower
  VSBY to less than 3SM downwind of dry western NV sinks, possibly
  impacting KLOL-KNFL.

* Shower potential along the front through Monday AM will mainly
  impact Tahoe area terminals (60% chance) with more scattered and
  brief showers elsewhere (20-40% chance). As such, terrain
  obscurement and periods of MVFR CIGS/VSBY at KTRK-KTVL in light
  rain showers. A second and colder disturbance will follow Monday
  PM lingering Tuesday AM at KMMH-KHTH with snow levels lowering to
  just above lower valley floors. More widespread MVFR with
  localized IFR conditions may occur for mountain airports with
  brief MVFR conditions down at lower elevations sites. Right now,
  snow amounts at Sierra terminals look light, generally a wet inch
  or less Monday evening into Sunday AM.

Hohmann

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Overnight humidity recoveries were poor along the Eastern Sierra and
gusty southwest downslope winds pushed RH levels even lower this
morning. Sensors show wind gusts solidly in the 35-45 mph range with
windprone areas closer to 50-60 mph. MOS guidance and lee side
downward vertical velocities suggest these very dry conditions
will persist through the afternoon with RH recovery/cooler
temperatures being delayed until this evening. So we have raised a
Red Flag Warning for the southern Sierra Front southward into
southern Mono County until 7 pm this evening. While humidity
levels are expected to climb, strong gusty winds will persist well
into the night as the cold front is not expected to arrive until
late.

Hohmann

&&

.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...Red Flag Warning until 7 PM PDT this evening NVZ421.

     Lake Wind Advisory until 11 PM PDT this evening NVZ002-004.

CA...Red Flag Warning until 7 PM PDT this evening CAZ274.

     Lake Wind Advisory until 11 PM PDT this evening CAZ072.

&&