NWS Reno, NV wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jan 31, 2:21 PM PST, 9 hours 39 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Jan 31, 2:21 PM PST, 9 hours 39 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
221 PM PST Wed Jan 31 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
Gusty south winds will be followed by heavy Sierra snow this
evening through Thursday morning, producing widespread travel
impacts. For lower elevations, mainly rain showers are expected
tonight through Thursday. Colder conditions with additional snow
showers will then linger through Saturday. Another winter storm
could bring snow impacts to all elevations Sunday through Monday.
&&
.SHORT TERM...through Friday Night...
South winds continue to ramp up this afternoon with gusts of
80-100 mph so far on Sierra ridges. This wind direction has
limited the eastward progression of the main moisture band so far
today, but precip will increase during the late afternoon-evening
for northeast CA and the Sierra as the main storm moves closer to
the west coast. The bulk of the snow and travel impacts will occur
over the Sierra and higher elevations (5000+') of northeast CA
later this evening and overnight, then transition to a more
showery character from north to south during the morning-midday
hours on Thursday. A variety of winter weather and wind headlines
remain in effect, with additional details for snowfall
amounts/peak wind gusts and action items included in those
statements.
* WINDS: A prolonged south flow will channel stronger wind gusts
in wind prone areas of eastern CA-western NV. The majority of
gusts in these wind-prone areas will generally be 40-50 mph, but
there is a 30-40% chance for a short period of 50+ mph gusts in
far western NV tonight, with 40-60% chance of 60+ mph for parts
of US-395 in southeast Lassen County and Mono County, and US-95
near Walker Lake. Cross wind hazards along I-80 are also likely
for high profile vehicles due the southerly wind orientation.
Sierra ridge gusts will continue to peak around 100 mph through
tonight. For most lower elevations, gusts of 30-40 mph are
expected through tonight, with winds decreasing in all areas by
Thursday.
* SNOW/RAIN: We have eased back snow amounts a bit due to the
longer duration of south flow aloft that will delay the onset of
snow across the eastern Sierra by a few hours into this evening.
The snowfall rates at peak intensity also don't look as
impressive (maybe near 2"/hour for short bursts), with the
enhanced convective banding associated with the cold front
passage losing some of its punch as it approaches the Sierra. It
will still be enough snow for plenty of travel impacts in the
Sierra and higher elevations of northeast CA.
- For Thursday afternoon-evening the high-res guidance is in
good agreement for a lull in precip except for a few stray
snow showers. A weak disturbance within the colder air mass
then brings a momentary increase in snow shower coverage late
Thursday night into Friday morning, which could account for
about 2-6 inches of the overall storm total in the warning
areas of the Sierra. The rest of Friday and Friday night looks
to have a pop-up showery regime with part of the cold pool
aloft overhead during the day, followed by another weak
disturbance passing through overnight.
- For lower elevations, only short-duration rain showers are
expected through most of tonight, until winds shift to the
southwest with the best chance for measurable rainfall
Thursday morning through early afternoon, except continuing
later in the afternoon from US-95 eastward. Amounts are
generally expected to range from a few hundredths to 0.20",
with portions of northwest and west central NV receiving storm
totals up to 0.40". MJD
.LONG TERM...Saturday through next week...
Active weather continues through the weekend as we remain at the
edge of the upper trough. This will continue to send weak
shortwaves our way. Therefore, showers will be brief and spotty
with light precipitation amounts from Saturday to early Sunday. No
significant impacts are expected.
The next AR is expected on Sunday afternoon. An upper closed low
off the West Coast will pull a deep plume of moisture towards
CA/NV. IVT signals are weaker compared to yesterday, but still
show values of 250-400 kg/ms pushing into the Sierra. Global
models still show disagreement based on the location of the low
and the plume, but have pushed the arrival towards the afternoon
on Sunday. So, it is slightly slower. The GFS and ECMWF have very
similar solutions with the CMC lagging behind them. QPF amounts
have come slightly lower with the latest run, but it is still
looking like a significant event, although not extreme, between
Sunday and Monday.
There is still a wide spread of snowfall and QPF amount with the
ensemble members of the GEFS, EC, CMC. QPF values range from
nothing on the valley floors to a couple inches. In the Sierra,
similarly, snow ranges from nothing to a couple of feet. However,
the trend appears to lean more on the wetter side. Thus, decided
to follow NBM 50th percentile for snow amounts. Current, snow
totals from Sunday through Tuesday morning are 1-2 ft for the
Greater Tahoe area, 1-3 ft for Mono Co with higher amounts
expected near the crest. Reno and the Quad county area 1-8 inches,
Lassen and Plumas Co 3-12 inches, and everywhere else a trace to
1 inch. Snow probabilities for amounts greater than 12 inches in
the Tahoe area remain around 30-50% and 40-60% for Mono Co. Snow
probability greater than an inch for Reno and the Quad counties
is 20-80%. The lower end of this range is for the valley floors,
with higher probabilities as elevation increases.
Winds with the next system are not looking very impressive. The
strongest winds are expected in the Sierra with gusts 40-60 mph
on Sunday afternoon and Monday night, although higher ridge top
winds are possible at the crest.
Precipitation should end by Wednesday-Thursday time frame once
the upper low finally moves inland cutting our supply of moisture.
However, looking beyond the forecast period it appears that there
is another system in the horizon descending from the Gulf of AK
and across the Pacific NW.
-Crespo
&&
.AVIATION...
An approaching winter storm will maintain gusty south winds
through the remainder of today with occasional surface gusts up
to 30-35 kts. Despite this, robust FL100 winds of 45-65 kts will
support LLWS concerns and mountain wave turbulence into Thursday
morning before winds aloft weaken.
Periods of rain and mountain snow will lower CIGS/VIS to MVFR/IFR
thresholds for KTRK/KTVL/KMMH tonight and much of Thursday. Rain
will be favored at the onset of the precipitation for KTRK/KTVL,
although a few snowflakes mixed in is certainly possible. The
better opportunity for snow, and thus lowered visibilities, at
KTRK/KTVL will be tonight into Thursday as snow levels fall to
near lake level. KMMH will predominantly see snowfall throughout
the duration of this storm. Runway accumulation for KTRK/KTVL will
vary from 1-4" while KMMH sees 4-8" of total snowfall through
Friday.
While light rain may yield brief MVFR conditions for western
Nevada terminals, the primary concern for KRNO/KCXP/KMEV will be
terrain obscuration among LLWS/turbulence issues. Snow levels are
anticipated to fall below valley floors by late Thursday or early
Friday, so a few light snow showers are possible for Sierra Front
terminals during this time but accumulations are unlikely.
-Salas
&&
.AVALANCHE...
For the current storm from tonight through Friday night (most
widespread snow expected through early Thursday afternoon).
* SWE: Up to 1.5" along the Sierra crest through early Thursday
afternoon, with overall totals near 2" through Friday as steady
snow transitions to scattered snow shower bands.
* SNOW LIQUID RATIOS (SLR)/SNOWFALL RATES: Relatively wet SLR of
8-12:1 through Thursday morning, becoming drier with SLR
12-16:1 from Thursday afternoon through midday Friday, then even
drier at 15-18:1 for the remainder of Friday and Friday night.
Embedded convective bands of snow showers may lead to short
bursts of 2"/hour snowfall rates tonight into Thursday morning.
Otherwise, snow rates should remain around 1" per hour.
* WINDS: South wind gusts 90-110 mph today along the Sierra crest
and 80-90 mph for the White Mountains through tonight, then
decreasing during the day Thursday.
* Another storm is likely to bring significant snowfall and gusty
winds Sunday through Monday. Early projections indicate a higher
SLR/drier snow initially, then lowering SLR/wetter snow as the
event progresses, with potential SWE of 2-4" along the Sierra
crest. MJD
&&
.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...Wind Advisory until 10 PM PST this evening NVZ005.
Winter Storm Warning until 10 AM PST Friday NVZ002.
Wind Advisory until 4 AM PST Thursday NVZ001.
Lake Wind Advisory until 10 PM PST this evening NVZ004.
CA...Wind Advisory until 10 PM PST this evening CAZ070.
Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM PST Friday CAZ071.
Winter Storm Warning until 10 AM PST Friday CAZ072.
Winter Storm Warning from 4 PM this afternoon to 10 AM PST
Friday CAZ073.
&&