Damaging Wind in Nevada, August 2, 2024

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
155 PM PDT Fri Aug 2 2024

.SYNOPSIS...High temperatures ranging from the upper 90s to mid
100s Friday afternoon prompted a Heat Advisory for portions of
Humboldt, Lander, Eureka and Elko counties this afternoon and
evening. Saturday temps regress back into the upper 90s thanks to
increased cloud cover from shower and thunderstorm chances. East-
central and northeastern Nevada will see increased chances for
thunderstorms beginning midday on Saturday. At first, storms will
be of the dry variety but will mix in some wetting rains as
moisture availability increases from south to north over the
course of Saturday afternoon and evening. Showers and
thunderstorms will diminish after sunset Saturday night.

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.SHORT TERM...Today through Saturday night The upper level high
pressure system stationed over the Four Corners region ramps up
the heat over the Silver State Friday afternoon thanks to south-
southwest flow over the region with highs in the upper 90s to mid
100s in lower elevations creating uncomfortable, dangerous heating
conditions for a large portion of the CWA. A Heat Advisory is in
effect for northern portions of the region through 06z tonight.
Those sensitive to hot temperatures should limit time outdoors
this afternoon, stay hydrated, and remain in air conditioning if
possible. Also, it is important to protect small children and
animals from the heat by not locking them in vehicles.

The ridge will broaden Saturday promoting a shift to a more
westerly course by Sunday morning. This will help to cool high
temperatures on Saturday off a bit back into the upper 90s.
Moisture Friday evening will increase slightly the chance for
convection in extreme southern Nye county tonight. Tomorrow the
chance for thunderstorm development pushes into east-central NV by
midday. By 18z Saturday several hundred Joules of CAPE coupled
with LI values of -2 to -3 over central and northeastern NV will
promote chances for dry thunder at first due to lack of enough
moisture for wetting rains. Also inhibiting wetting rains early is
increased storm motion up to 15-20 knots, and a more westerly
component in advecting winds. This will slow the transition to a
mixed bag of dry/wet convection Saturday, however the change will
occur over the course of Saturday evening as sufficient moisture
filters into the region from the southeast increasing QPF Saturday
night. As the sun sets on Saturday forcing will diminish and
along with it any lingering shower or thunderstorm activity. Due
to the transition to wetting rains later in the day, any Fire Wx
products are not anticipated at this time though partners need to
be wary of dry thunder in the early afternoon hours on Saturday.

.LONG TERM...Sunday through next Friday. All models continue to
depict a strong high pressure center across the southwestern
United States. The center of circulation is forecast to remain
over the Four Corners region on Sunday. This will bring a south to
southwest flow over northern and central Nevada. With a drier
flow, isolated thunderstorm are expected to be more dry than wet.
Highs on Sunday will be in the low to upper 90s for this time
frame. Look for dry conditions during the overnight with 50s and
60s.

Precipitation chances slide northeastward across Elko county into
Monday with another mixed bag of dry and wet thunderstorms for
east-central and northeastern Nevada. As the upper flow shifts
more westerly, the availability of moisture decreases on Tuesday
and Wednesday, limited to only eastern White Pine county and
northeastern portions of Elko county. This will result in
isolated showers and thunderstorms each afternoon across far
eastern Nevada for Tuesday and Wednesday. Otherwise, locations
will see partly to mostly sunny skies with highs in the low to
upper 90s with breezy afternoon winds to 20 mph. Overnight lows
will drop into the 50s and 60s.

Look for the position of the upper ridge to meander across
southern Nevada and Utah through this period. Isolated to
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are expected to
develop each afternoon. Highs will be in the 90s with lows in the
50s and 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...Mainly VFR conditions are expected over the next 24
hours. VCTS continues during the evening for the KTPH with gusts
around 40KT possible. Fairer weather expected tonight, though VCTS
possible across all TAF sites for tomorrow after 18Z. Convective
wind gusts to 40KT with the strongest storms.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Isolated dry thunderstorms are anticipated this
afternoon into this evening in Nye and extreme southern Lander
counties. A few of these thunderstorms could be strong. The
primary thunderstorm hazards will be wind gusts near 50 mph and
dangerous cloud to ground lighting strikes. For tomorrow the
chance for dry thunderstorm increases and shifts north to a
corridor situated more so over Lander, Eureka, White Pine and
(early in the day) southern Elko county. Northern Elko county will
join in the convective chances after 18z Saturday. Initially,
convection that does occur will be mainly dry thunderstorms due to
large of sufficient moisture. More westerly wind components will
slow the push of moisture to the north Saturday and coupled with
faster storm motions (10-15 knots) than previous model runs will
diminish the presence of wetting rains in Elko county before 21z
Saturday afternoon. Wetting rains will eventually mix in tomorrow
evening. Partners should be wary of dry thunder before this
transition occurs.

&&

.LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Heat Advisory until 11 PM PDT this evening Humboldt County...
Northern Elko County...Northern Lander County and Northern
Eureka County...South Central Elko County...Southeastern Elko
County...Southwest Elko County.

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99/86/86/99