Hail and Damaging Winds in Montana, May 17, 2024

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Glasgow MT
1208 PM MDT Fri May 17 2024

.DISCUSSION...

KEY MESSAGES:

- There will be an opportunity for showers and isolated
  thunderstorms, some of them severe, today through late tonight.

- Wind gusts to 40 mph are expected today, so a Lake Wind Advisory
  product is occurring from now through 9PM Saturday.

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW:

A cold front is passing through the area this morning, and an
associated quick moving trough will pass through in the early
afternoon. This will lead to west winds gusting up to 40 mph, with
higher gusts (50 mph or greater) in or near isolated thunderstorms
that are expected to pop up across the area today. Specifically,
Dawson, Richland, McCone, Sheridan, Daniels, Prairie, and Wibaux
counties have the highest probability (10 to 40 percent
probability) of seeing severe wind gusts and isolated severe hail.
These storms will come to an end late this evening, with isolated
showers possible after midnight.

A sunny day is in store for tomorrow after the cold front passes
through today, temperatures will only be slightly cooler, and
sustained winds will be in the 20 to 30 mph range.

A overall trough pattern is expected to remain over the region, so
unsettled weather with isolated showers and thunderstorms are
expected to remain over the region throughout the week.
CONFIDENCE AND POTENTIAL DEVIATIONS FROM BASE FORECAST:

There is medium to high (50 to 60 percent) confidence of wind
gusts exceeding 30 mph out of the west today, and high (90
percent) confidence of wind gusts exceeding 30 mph on Saturday.

There is low to medium (20 to 40 percent) confidence of severe
winds and/or hail occurring today, especially east of line from
Opheim to Jordan.

-Stoinskers

&&

.AVIATION...

LAST UPDATED: 1900Z

FLIGHT CONDITIONS: VFR and MVFR.

DISCUSSION: There are mid to high level clouds that will continue
to move through today. There is low to moderate (20 to 40 percent)
confidence of severe wind gusts and severe hail moving through
between 20Z and 02Z at KOLF, KSDY, and KGDV, which may lead to
brief MVFR conditions in thunderstorms. A rapid change in wind
direction may also occur with any downdrafts.

WINDS: West northwest winds 15 to 25 knots, with gusts to 35
knots, becoming light and variable after 00Z Sunday.

-Stoinskers

&&

.GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Lake Wind Advisory until 9 PM MDT Saturday for Central and
Southeast Phillips-Central and Southern Valley-Garfield-McCone-
Petroleum.

&&

weather.gov/glasgow

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Glasgow MT
111 PM MDT Fri May 17 2024

MTZ023>025-172015-
Richland MT-Dawson MT-McCone MT-
111 PM MDT Fri May 17 2024

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northeastern McCone,
central Richland and northwestern Dawson Counties through 215 PM MDT
...

At 110 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 11
miles east of Vida, or 18 miles south of Poplar, moving east at 40
mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Richey, Lambert, Vida, and Enid.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 4756 10546 4797 10552 4804 10514 4811 10447
      4798 10433 4767 10423
TIME...MOT...LOC 1910Z 259DEG 36KT 4785 10524

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Stoinski