High Wind in Idaho, May 17, 2024

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
157 AM MDT Fri May 17 2024

.SHORT TERM...Today through Saturday.

A cold front will arrive today. Strong winds are likely this
afternoon as the front passes through. There is a 50 to 60 percent
chance of 58 mph or greater gusts extending from the Arco Desert
into East Idaho. The southern edge of the better chance for high
winds is roughly around Fort Hall, with Pocatello only standing
about a 20 percent chance of reaching 58 mph. With that said, solid
70 percent chance throughout the wind advisory area of seeing at
least 45 mph gusts this afternoon. With lots of plowing ongoing,
blowing dust seems almost certain and typical trouble spots could
be, well, troublesome. There is a lot of dry air with this system so
we're not expecting much in the way of precipitation. Temperatures
are expected to be almost 10 degrees colder today.

On Saturday, the system departs and winds are much lighter. Some
gusts to 45 mph remain possible near Mud Lake in the afternoon, with
about a 50% chance of reaching those thresholds there. Probably not
widespread enough to warrant an advisory though. Temperatures on
Saturday will range from the mid 60s across the upper Snake Plain to
the low 70s in the Magic Valleys, with 50s and low 60s common for
most of the communities in the mountains and highlands.

13

.LONG TERM...Sunday through next Friday.

On Sunday, another shortwave trough will press into the region. Like
the current system, there is a lot of dry air to overcome and
precipitation looks light with chances mainly confined to the
mountains and highlands for Sunday into Monday. Unlike the current
system, the Sunday system doesn't have near the wind. However, there
is roughly a 50% chance of meeting advisory levels for the upper
Snake Plain.

Looks like we may see a break in between systems on Tuesday. But for
Wednesday through Friday, model consensus is bringing a closed low
into the Pacific Northwest and the overwhelming majority of them
(90%) show this to be a fairly potent storm. This system looks like
a good bet for bringing widespread precipitation to the area with
snow possible for the mid to upper slopes, roughly above 6500 feet.
Temperatures through the extended are expected to be 5 to 10 degrees
below normal.

13

&&

.AVIATION...Strong gusts likely at Snake Plain TAF sites today.
Gusts to 45kts are likely at PIH and IDA with gusts to 35kts more
likely at BYI and DIJ. KSUN will likely see a gusty west-
southwesterly wind today. With the interactions with the local
mountains, turbulence is probably pretty likely there although it
may not quite fit the definition for low level wind shear. 13

&&

.HYDROLOGY...A flood warning continues for the Portneuf river in
Pocatello.  A flood advisory continues along the Portneuf river at
Topaz. Water levels are slowly receding for the Portneuf river due
to the snowpack diminishing. Water levels for other rivers,
including the Big Wood, Big Lost, Henrys Fork, Teton, and Snake, are
slowly climbing due to snowmelt, but all rivers look to remain below
action stage with current forecasts. Wyatt/13

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory from noon today to 8 PM MDT this evening for
IDZ051-055>058-062-065-067-068-070.

High Wind Warning from noon today to 8 PM MDT this evening for
IDZ052>054.

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