A long stretch of hot and dry conditions transitioned much of the Northern Rockies into fire weather season by mid-July. This episode contains notable fires in the CWA that began early-mid July.
Every event with a place to put it; 1 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS TFX wrote it up.
A long stretch of hot and dry conditions transitioned much of the Northern Rockies into fire weather season by mid-July. This episode contains notable fires in the CWA that began early-mid July.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Great Falls, MT wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 9, 3:19 PM MST, 41 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
419 PM MDT Tue Jul 9 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
Heat and mostly dry weather persists into next week, with the
hottest days on Wednesday and Thursday. During the late week,
there are low end chances for a few isolated light showers and
thunderstorms, particularly across Southwest Montana.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
The heat will continue to build in through mid week as the strong
upper ridge axis over the NW continues to slide east.
Temperatures this afternoon will reach into low to mid 90s across
most lower elevation locations. Wednesday and Thursday look to be
the hottest days as that upper level ridge axis build in
overhead. Temperatures will range between mid to upper 90s across
lower elevations. Some locations (especially the Helena area) may
reach 100F. A shortwave trough moving through the area on
Thursday will bring a low chance of an isolated shower /
thunderstorm during the evening (<20%). Moisture will be low
however, with the 75th percentile of the NBM showing less than
0.05" with precipitation.
-Wilson
This weekend temperatures look to be higher than average in the
mid to upper 90s as the ridge flattens and moves in from the
west. Overnight lows remain in the 60s, bringing some relief from
the hot temperatures. The rounding out of the ridge in Southwest
Montana brings the possibility of thunderstorms, although chances
of showers are low. The chance of locations receiving 0.10” of
precipitation is 10-20%. There is an increase in fire weather
concerns as the heat causes the fuels to dry out faster, and a
slight chance of drier thunderstorms during the weekend. The high
temperatures will likely remain very warm into next week.
- Kiffe/Wilson
&&
.AVIATION...
09/18Z TAF Period
Note: The NWS Great Falls Weather Forecast Office manages the
following TAFs: KCTB, KHVR, KGTF, KLWT, KHLN, KBZN, KEKS and
KWYS.
VFR conditions prevail through the TAF period with little or no
clouds and light surface winds. The greatest impact to aviation
operations is density altitude.
- Fogleman
Refer to weather.gov/zlc for more detailed regional aviation
weather and hazard information.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Temperatures Wednesday and Thursday are expected to reach near or
at record temperatures. The following table below shows the
forecasted temperatures with the records for that day at our
climate sites.
Record temperatures for July 10th:
Location Forecast Record Warm Record Warm
(High/Low) High(Year) Low(Year)
Bozeman 96/57 100 (1973) 60 (1970)
Cut Bank 95/58 101 (1973) 62 (1968)
Dillon 93/56 95 (1973) 60 (1966)
Great Falls 97/60 105 (1973) 67 (1985)
Havre 98/60 105 (1973) 68 (1968)
Helena 100/64 102 (1973) 69 (2001)
Lewistown 92/58 100 (1939) 63 (2014)
Record temperatures for July 11th:
Location Forecast Record Warm Record Warm
(High/Low) High(Year) Low(Year)
Bozeman 97/58 97 (2002) 59 (1973)
Cut Bank 96/60 95 (1917) 65 (1917)
Dillon 94/57 99 (2002) 57 (1953)
Great Falls 97/63 99 (2002) 70 (1957)
Havre 99/63 105 (1886) 65 (1976)
Helena 101/66 100 (2002) 69 (1985)
Lewistown 91/61 92 (1925) 64 (2013)
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF 60 97 63 97 / 0 0 0 10
CTB 59 95 61 95 / 0 0 0 0
HLN 64 100 66 101 / 0 0 0 0
BZN 57 96 58 97 / 0 0 0 0
WYS 44 87 46 89 / 0 0 0 10
DLN 55 93 57 93 / 0 0 0 0
HVR 60 98 63 99 / 0 0 0 0
LWT 58 92 61 91 / 0 0 0 10
&&
.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
http://www.weather.gov/greatfallsThe national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
1 wildfire. Local standard time, as filed.
The Horse Gulch fire developed the afternoon of July 9 and quickly spread eastward on the 10th and 11th due to windy conditions. As of July 26, the fire was declared 100% contained.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Montana in 2024Every state in 2024This day in weather historyWarnings in Montana, July 2024
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1186692.