Tight surface pressure gradients, combined with a strong jet aloft, resulted in some high wind gusts across the Livingston and Paradise Valley areas.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS BYZ wrote it up.
Tight surface pressure gradients, combined with a strong jet aloft, resulted in some high wind gusts across the Livingston and Paradise Valley areas.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Billings, MT wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Feb 28, 1:32 PM MST, 11 hours 8 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Billings MT
132 PM MST Wed Feb 28 2024
.DISCUSSION...
Tonight through Thursday Night...
Satellite imagery shows a ridge building and heights climbing
from the west, with some high clouds spilling into our western
parts. A lee side surface trof is in place and we are seeing
significant downslope warming today. Temps have reached the mid
30s to lower 40s most places by 1pm. The main story is of course
the wind.
Livingston airport reached a peak wind gust of a whopping 92 mph
at 753am. This is the 2nd highest gust in their recorded history
(back to 1973). The record is 94 mph on 12/21/1978.
The IDA-LWT pressure gradient continues to climb slowly and was
13mb at noon. Stability, westerly mid level winds to 40 knots and
a favorably oriented gradient are ideal for gap flow...which will
be the case through tonight and beyond. Livingston continues to
see gusts of 65+ mph but this should decrease gradually as we
continue to warm. Do not think we will see a return to 70+ mph
gusts tonight due to the decreased stability, but solid advisory-
level gusts will continue w/ high confidence (100% chance of
exceeding 60 mph). Big Timber and Harlowton have seen elevated
mixed winds today but the backing mid level flow does not support
high gusts in these non-gap areas tonight thru Thursday morning.
SW 700mb winds will increase to 50-60 knots tomorrow and tomorrow
night, in advance of a cold front expected arrive in the 09-12z
time frame Thursday night. It is in this pre-frontal period when
more widespread wind impacts will likely emerge. Gap areas stand a
good (50%) chance of seeing gusts exceed 70 mph, and there is a
50% chance of 60 mph gusts at Big Timber & Harlowton...though
there remains uncertainty here given the SW flow aloft does not
favor these locations. The kicker is mountain wave potential.
Early look at forecast soundings suggest the best chance of
surfacing strong winds is near the Crazy Mountains, with a lesser
chance near Red Lodge, and the lowest in the lee of the Bighorns.
There is a 40% chance of gusts exceeding 40 mph at Red Lodge, and
a 25% chance at Sheridan. If a more stable layer at mountain top
does materialize, and if the core of strongest 700mb winds shifts
a bit south, this could change so stay tuned. However it pans out,
the risk of strong foothills winds across the region will
diminish quickly early Friday with the cold frontal passage.
As a Pacific trof deepens along the coast, a moist SW flow w/
anomalously high pwats looks to bring periods of heavy
accumulating snowfall to SW aspects of the Beartooth-Absarokas
beginning Thursday night. Have issued a Winter Storm Watch. See
extended discussion for more details.
Our very brief cold spell is over. Tonight will be milder and
temps should reach the 50s to near 60F on Thursday. Thursday
night temps will stay above freezing along the windy foothills.
Lower elevation snow cover will melt quickly.
JKL
Friday through Wednesday...
Active period was in store for the extended timeframe. Strong SW
flow will be over the region on Friday, as a cold front moves E
through the forecast area. Moderate precipitation chances will be
from Rosebud County W with high chances over the western
mountains. Expect a mix of rain and snow in the lower elevations
with snow in the mountains. Highs will range from the 40s to lower
50s with similar temps on Saturday. Area will be under weak
diffluence and SW flow on Saturday, as another front pushes into
the western part of the area. There will be moderate to high
chances for rain and snow W of Rosebud County with snow continuing
in the mountains. Chances of 18 or more inches of snow in the
mountains around Cooke City, from Thursday night through Saturday,
was 60%. A Winter Storm Watch has been issued for the
Beartooth/Absaroka Mountains from Thu. evening through Sat.
afternoon. There will be areas of blowing snow in the mountains
due to strong winds aloft.
Moderate to high chances of rain and snow continue Sat. night
with less mountain snow accumulation. Clusters had a negatively
tilted piece of the next Pacific trough moving through the area on
Sunday with moderate chances of snow. For Sat. night through
Sunday, chances of 2 or more inches of snow were 10% in KLVM and
KSHR and 17% in KBIL. It will be cooler on Sunday with highs in
the 20s to mid 30s.
Drier conditions were forecast beginning Sun. night and continuing
through Wednesday, while Cluster agreement led lower confidence to
the forecast. Monday and Tuesday showed an upper ridge or a trough
over the region, and Wednesday had similar pattern differences
among the Clusters. Temperatures are forecast to be near or a few
degrees above normal Tue. and Wednesday. Arthur
&&
.AVIATION...
Strong SW winds (gusting 50-60 knots) will continue at KLVM
through the next 24 hours. Periodic gusts of 30-45 knots will
impact other western foothills locations (i.e. K6S0 & KHWQ).
Otherwise, VFR will prevail across the region under building high
pressure aloft. The Beartooth-Absaroka Mountains may be obscured
at times w/ light snow showers. JKL
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
Thu Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 032/056 038/046 029/048 021/032 017/040 024/049 027/045
00/N 06/O 36/O 65/S 21/B 01/B 11/B
LVM 036/054 040/042 025/042 017/030 015/037 024/044 025/041
00/N 38/S 47/S 64/S 21/N 11/B 11/B
HDN 026/061 029/048 027/053 018/033 013/041 020/050 023/048
00/B 05/O 25/O 76/S 31/B 00/B 11/B
MLS 023/057 032/046 028/048 019/028 010/029 015/044 020/040
00/U 02/R 12/O 55/S 21/B 10/B 00/B
4BQ 024/062 032/052 030/056 020/033 013/037 020/049 023/046
00/U 01/B 12/O 45/S 21/B 10/U 00/B
BHK 023/058 029/048 025/046 017/030 007/030 012/044 018/040
00/U 01/B 13/O 55/S 31/B 11/B 00/B
SHR 021/058 029/050 026/052 017/032 013/039 018/049 022/045
00/B 04/R 45/O 76/S 31/B 00/B 11/B
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...High Wind Watch in effect from Thursday morning through late
Thursday night FOR ZONES 63-141-172-228.
Wind Advisory in effect until 5 AM MST Friday FOR ZONES
65-66.
Winter Storm Watch in effect from Thursday evening through
Saturday afternoon FOR ZONE 67.
WY...None.
&&
weather.gov/billingsPreliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Billings, MT
1131 PM MST Wed Feb 28 2024
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0915 PM Non-Tstm Wnd Gst 2 WSW Livingston 45.65N 110.60W
02/28/2024 M56.00 MPH Park MT Dept of Highways
1030 PM Non-Tstm Wnd Gst 2 WSW Livingston 45.65N 110.60W
02/28/2024 M53.00 MPH Park MT Dept of Highways
1035 PM Non-Tstm Wnd Gst 6 ENE Livingston 45.70N 110.45W
02/28/2024 M56.00 MPH Park MT ASOS
&&
TSThe national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
2 high wind. Local standard time, as filed.
A brief wind gust of 78 mph was recorded at the Livingston Airport.
Winds gusted around 60 mph across the area.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Montana in 2024Every state in 2024This day in weather historyWarnings in Montana, February 2024
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1158087, 1158088.