A locally tight, north/south surface pressure gradient resulted in high wind gusts in the immediate Livingston area.
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The episode as NWS BYZ wrote it up.
A locally tight, north/south surface pressure gradient resulted in high wind gusts in the immediate Livingston area.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Billings, MT wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Dec 7, 2:49 PM MST, 5 hours 25 minutes earlier. Its key messages:
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Billings MT
249 PM MST Sat Dec 7 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Periods of gusty/strong winds along the western foothills
through the weekend. Strong winds spread east into the plains on
Sunday.
- Cold front Sunday evening will bring cooler and unsettled
weather through Monday, with flurries lingering into Tuesday.
Probabilities for 2+ inches of snow over the lower elevations
is under 50%.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Tonight through Sunday night...
There are multiple concerns over the short term including strong
winds across the entire region, fire concerns, and precipitation.
High winds will be the most impactful. The Idaho Falls to
Lewistown pressure gradient is currently at 20mb and is expected
to remain near this strength through Sunday morning. This will
combine with 700mb winds in the 40-50kt range to create winds of
30-40mph with gusts to 65mph expected. The strongest winds for the
western foothills will be tonight into tomorrow morning and early
afternoon. Sunday morning there will be a frontal passage cooling
temperatures and bringing pressure rises to the plains, weakening
the lee side troughing. Due to this, models are in good agreement
in the Idaho Falls to Lewistown pressure gradient slowly
weakening throughout the day Sunday but remaining strong. 700mb
winds will follow a similar trajectory with values decreasing but
remaining strong in the 35-45kt range. Local wind guidance is
giving Livingston a 40% chance for warning level winds (75mph)
tomorrow morning, however, the lack of a low level inversion
likely lowers this potential. For this reason we are likely going
to hold off on a high wind warning. High winds will linger longer
along the HWY 191 corridor as the the pressure gradient becomes
more vertical favoring these areas.
Winds in the plains will begin to pick up in the afternoon
tomorrow behind the front. Most of the plains will have a 50-75%
chance for a wind gust over 40mph. Locations from Rosebud County
and east will have a 50-75% chance for a wind gust over 50mph.
Winds from Rosebud County and east will see strong winds lingering
through Sunday night. Temperatures tomorrow will be in the high
40s across plains which is about 10 degrees above average. These
strong winds and above average temperatures combined with RH
values in the 20s to low 30s will create fire concerns across much
of the area tomorrow.
The upcoming trough will create a low pressure system just north
of the border in Canada. Most of the precipitation will be well to
our north with our region only having precipitation chances with
the initial front and on the backside of the low. The initial
front will come through tonight with the main precipitation on
that backside coming through Saturday night. Precipitation amounts
will remain light with high elevation snow being the main concern.
Most of the higher terrain has a 50-75% chance of getting >0.10
inches of precipitation with lesser chances for lower elevations.
The Bighorn and Beartooth mountains have a 60-80% chance for >3
inches of snow.
Torgerson
Monday through Saturday...
Upper low slides east through the Dakotas into northern
MN/southern Canada on Monday, with wraparound moisture and energy
moving through the area under northerly flow. Light snow and
breezy northwest winds will gradually decrease through the day
Monday. Higher heights begin building in from the west on Tuesday,
initiating downslope flow over western zones, with light snow
showers or flurries lingering over SE MT. Ridging building in over
the area will generally bring warmer, drier and breezier
conditions for Wednesday and Thursday. A weak wave dropping in
through NW flow will bring low chances (less than 20%) for snow
Wednesday/Wednesday night over the east.
Uncertainty remains over the area for Friday into the weekend with
ensembles split on showing multiple Pacific waves moving through
the region, or keeping a zonal to ridging pattern. Will continue
a blended forecast through the extended, that keeps near to above
normal temperatures over the west and central zones, and low to
moderate precipitation chances (15-40%), highest over the
mountains.
Temperatures are currently forecast to range from the 20s and 30s
Monday, with 20s to lower 40s Tuesday. Temperatures in the 30s to
middle 40s are then forecast from Wednesday through Saturday,
lowest over SE MT. STP
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR ceilings will prevail over the next 24 to 36 hours. Ceilings
will lower into the western mountain elevations late tonight
producing occasional mountain obscuration into Sunday morning. A
few showers are possible after 09z tonight as the next disturbance
works into the region. Winds will be the main impactful weather
for aviation interests. Strong SW-W wind gusts (35-50kts) are
forecast for the western foothills (KLVM, K3HT, K6S0) through the
weekend. W-NW winds will spread across the eastern plains on
Sunday, with gusts 35-45 kts forecast. Low level wind shear is
likely just about anytime through the next 36 hours, but
especially at night when surface inversion is strongest.
Chambers/STP
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 038/046 030/039 026/041 027/045 029/048 030/046 026/044
10/N 23/S 10/B 01/B 01/B 11/B 11/B
LVM 032/040 026/035 021/039 025/044 027/046 027/043 025/043
71/N 53/S 00/N 01/N 11/N 21/N 11/B
HDN 034/049 028/039 024/040 022/044 023/046 025/045 022/044
21/N 56/S 21/B 11/E 01/B 11/B 11/B
MLS 037/049 026/032 021/032 017/034 020/042 025/042 022/041
41/N 63/S 22/S 11/E 00/B 11/B 00/B
4BQ 038/047 027/032 023/033 018/038 022/044 025/043 024/042
21/N 55/S 22/S 11/B 01/B 10/B 00/B
BHK 032/047 021/029 016/027 008/028 013/036 018/038 018/037
31/N 74/S 22/S 11/E 10/B 11/B 00/B
SHR 033/047 024/035 019/037 018/044 022/049 023/045 020/044
11/N 46/S 31/N 11/B 01/B 11/B 11/B
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...High Wind Warning in effect from 3 AM to 5 PM MST Sunday FOR
ZONES 63-141-172-228.
Wind Advisory in effect until 5 PM MST Sunday FOR ZONES
65-66.
WY...None.
&&
weather.gov/billingsThe national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
1 high wind. Local standard time, as filed.
Winds gusted around 76 mph at the Livingston Airport.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Montana in 2024Every state in 2024This day in weather historyWarnings in Montana, December 2024
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1223843.