A shower produced a strong wind gust at Sweetgrass near the international border.
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The episode as NWS TFX wrote it up.
A shower produced a strong wind gust at Sweetgrass near the international border.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Great Falls, MT wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Aug 3, 1:36 PM MST, 1 hour 24 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Great Falls MT 236 PM MDT Sat Aug 3 2024 .SYNOPSIS... One more afternoon of hot temperatures will be around before a cold front cools things down tonight into tomorrow. Showers and a couple thunderstorms across North-central Montana will produce little precipitation today, but result in a brief period of gusty winds this afternoon and evening. A better chance for accumulating precipitation arrives Sunday. Looking further ahead, Tuesday is shaping up to be an active day for thunderstorms. && .DISCUSSION... Through Monday night... Upper level ridging is in place across the interior west, with the axis of the ridge slowly shifting eastward. This signifies that the end is getting closer for the hot temperatures. In the meantime, moisture aloft wrapping around the western side of the ridge will be introduced to the region this afternoon. This will result in an opportunity for a few showers and isolated thunderstorms this afternoon, primarily across the plains of North-central Montana. Given the deep, well-mixed sub-cloud layer, very little precipitation is forecast to fall today. This does raise concerns for strong wind gusts around showers and thunderstorms, however. Latest high resolution ensemble guidance gives a roughly 70% neighborhood probability (Chance of occurrence within 25 miles of a point) for a gust in excess of 35 mph, and a 10% neighborhood probability for a 58 mph gust within the Golden Triangle. Heading into tonight, the ridge axis exits east and flow aloft becomes more zonal to slightly northwesterly. At the surface, a Canadian cold front will slip southward, resulting in a much appreciated drop to temperatures for most areas heading into Sunday. Isolated showers will be around tonight into early tomorrow. A disturbance aloft will result in a transition to more southwesterly flow aloft Sunday. The combination of additional moisture aloft and better surface moisture behind the aforementioned Canadian cold front will allow precipitation to be more widespread as well as be more efficient precipitation producers. There looks to be two separate regimes for Sunday, with a more stratiform rain looking likely across northern areas where surface temperatures trend cooler than average. Meanwhile further south across portions of Central and Southwest Montana, better daytime clearing and warmer temperatures will allow for instability to develop by early afternoon. Relatively deep mixing will allow for a gusty wind threat across Southwest and portions of Central Montana. High resolution ensembles give around a 70% neighborhood probability (Chance of occurrence within 25 miles of a point) for gusts in excess of 35 mph across Southwest Montana over the 2 PM to 6 PM timeframe. Consideration was given toward a flash flood watch highlighting the burn scar of the Horse Gulch Fire, but the probability for precipitation amounts that warrant concern in this area is less than 20% at this time. Trends here will continue to be monitored heading into Sunday. Heading into Monday, a brief window of upper level ridging will build back in. Temperatures trend back closer to normal. Though ridging will be around, moisture wrapping around the west side of the ridging will allow for at least isolated showers and thunderstorms. Wildfire smoke will be around through the period, especially across Southwest Montana. Tuesday through the weekend... Tuesday is shaping up to be a bit more active day from a thunderstorm perspective. As quickly as ridging builds in Monday, an upper level disturbance will track from the Pacific Northwest toward the Northern Rockies starting Tuesday morning. Respectable surface moisture will combine with increased westerly flow and cooler temperatures aloft to result in the potential for organized thunderstorms. There is uncertainty with respect to timing of the upper level disturbance however, which will ultimately determine how much instability forms before showers and thunderstorms move across the area Tuesday. A slower to arrive wave would favor stronger afternoon thunderstorms (With a wind and hail threat) while one that arrives earlier would limit potential for organized thunderstorms. A cyclonic northwesterly flow looks to develop for at least Wednesday, which will allow for afternoon showers and thunderstorms. Thereafter ensemble spread increases, though at least low end potential for precipitation will be around each afternoon and evening, with temperatures trending below average. In fact, the chance for daytime highs below 80 F is nearly 100% across the plains Thursday, with around a 70% chance across Central and Southwest Montana valleys. -AM && .AVIATION... 03/18Z TAF Period The main concerns this TAF period include gusty and erratic winds near showers and thunderstorms that form this afternoon, density altitude concerns through the evening, and a wind shift tonight into tomorrow, primarily across the plains. Showers and thunderstorms are most favored across the plains of North-central Montana this afternoon and early evening, with much more isolated coverage forecast elsewhere. Looking toward tonight into tomorrow, a cold front will bring a wind shift to a more northerly direction from north to south across the region, mostly across the plains. Isolated showers will be around most of the night into tomorrow, but are not forecast to pose impacts at this time. Wildfire smoke will be around this TAF period, resulting in reduced slant-range visibility. Confidence in sub-VFR surface visibility due to smoke is low at this time. -AM Refer to weather.gov/zlc for more detailed regional aviation weather and hazard information. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... GTF 63 80 57 90 / 20 50 40 10 CTB 60 77 52 87 / 20 60 50 20 HLN 67 87 58 92 / 20 60 30 20 BZN 60 90 53 91 / 10 70 40 10 WYS 50 82 44 84 / 10 70 30 10 DLN 58 85 51 87 / 10 70 10 10 HVR 63 85 58 86 / 40 50 70 20 LWT 61 83 52 84 / 20 60 60 20 && .TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
206 PM MDT Sat Aug 3 2024
MTZ302-303-032030-
Eastern Glacier, Western Toole, and Central Pondera MT-
Northern High Plains MT-
206 PM MDT Sat Aug 3 2024
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTH CENTRAL PONDERA AND
SOUTHEASTERN GLACIER COUNTIES THROUGH 230 PM MDT...
At 205 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 8
miles northeast of Heart Butte, moving east at 25 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects.
This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of north central
Pondera and southeastern Glacier Counties.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
&&
LAT...LON 4825 11278 4843 11276 4845 11231 4818 11235
TIME...MOT...LOC 2005Z 275DEG 23KT 4834 11267
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH
BrusdaThe national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
1 high wind. Local standard time, as filed.
Mesonet station MTSWT Sweet Grass (MT DOT) measured a wind gust associated with a shower.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Montana in 2024Every state in 2024This day in weather historyWarnings in Montana, August 2024
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1203879.