A round of heavy rainfall occurred across southern Missouri during the early morning hours of December 16th. A corridor of two to four inches of rainfall fell across areas south of Interstate 44.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS SGF wrote it up.
A round of heavy rainfall occurred across southern Missouri during the early morning hours of December 16th. A corridor of two to four inches of rainfall fell across areas south of Interstate 44. A few instances of flash flooding occurred which led to water rescues and elevated stream levels.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Springfield, MO wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Dec 16, 5:17 AM CST, 1 hour 13 minutes earlier. Its key messages:
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Springfield MO 517 AM CST Mon Dec 16 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Showers and thunderstorms will continue this morning along and south of the Interstate 44 corridor. Frequent lightning and heavy rainfall will be common with this activity. - A corridor of 0.50 to 1.5 inches of total rainfall is likely through mid morning along and south of Interstate 44 with localized areas receiving 2.50 inches. This could cause increased stream flows and minor flooding of low water crossings. - Next chance of rain occurs Tuesday night (30-60%).Highest chances southeast of Interstate 44. - Above normal temperatures through Tuesday, then trending to near normal or slightly below normal by the end of the week. Precipitation chances are below 10 percent Wednesday through next weekend. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... Issued at 245 AM CST Mon Dec 16 2024 Current Conditions and Synoptic Pattern: Latest water vapor and upper air data shows a shortwave trough moving through the northern Plains. This has placed our region in a broad west- southwest flow pattern along with being in the right entrance region of an upper jet. A 45kt low level jet was parallel to the flow and located directly overhead. Two separate low pressure centers were evident with one across western Iowa and another across western Oklahoma. A cold front was connecting the two and continues to move east into eastern Kansas. A warm front has moved north the area with very mild temps for this hour in mid December with many areas in the upper 50s to lower 60s for both temps and dewpoints. Even higher dews (mid/upper 60s) remain across central Oklahoma. Strong low level moisture advection continues across eastern Oklahoma into northern Arkansas and southern Missouri. Latest analyzed PW values were around 1.2 inches which is well above normal for mid December. A corridor of instability, largely elevated, remains across southern Missouri with MU CAPE around 1000-1500j/kg and ML CAPE in the 500-1000j/kg range. Effective bulk wind differences were in the 25-35kt range however current hodographs suggest a mostly straight hodograph with the exception of areas along the Missouri/Arkansas border where surface winds were slightly more backed to the southeast creating more low level curvature. A small area of effective SRH of 200m2m2 was located along the Missouri/Arkansas border. A corridor of showers and thunderstorms has developed from northern Oklahoma into southern Missouri, generally along and south of Interstate 44. Frequent lightning and heavy rainfall has been common with most storms. Further southeast across the West Plains/Alton areas, dense fog has formed with visibilities around 1/4 mile at times in between rain showers. Today and Tonight: The corridor of showers and thunderstorms will continue across southern Missouri through 7-9am with a gradual shift to the southeast with time as the cold front approaches from the northwest. Given the CAPE/Shear combo, a few storms could still approach severe limits with large hail up to half dollars the most likely severe hazard. If a storm can become more rooted in boundary layer air (along the Missouri/Arkansas border area), then damaging winds and even a brief, short lived tornado could form however this potential remains quite low as of this writing. Another concern through early/mid morning are the rainfall rates. In general, hourly rainfall rates of 0.25-0.75in will be common with the strongest storms and given the parallel flow, storms will be moving over the same areas until the system gets pushed southeast. Therefore a corridor of total rainfall amounts of 0.50-1.50 inches will be common along and south of Interstate 44. Latest HREF LPMM data suggests a small corridor of amounts in the 2.00-2.50inch range along and south of Highway 60. This would likely cause a few instances of minor flooding along with elevated stream flows. Showers and storms will clear the area by mid/late morning with clearing skies by afternoon. Northwest winds will usher in a drier airmass however it is not an overly cold airmass with temps likely to only drop into the 50s. Clear skies are likely tonight with lows in the 30s. Tuesday: Surface high pressure will slide through the area with winds becoming southerly. A shortwave will quickly slide east through the northern Plains during the day and latest HREF data suggesting an overall increase in cloud cover during the afternoon and but remaining dry. High temps look to again climb above average in the upper 50s to around 60 before the thicker cloud cover arrives. If the cloud cover arrives sooner than temps would need to be reduced. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... Issued at 245 AM CST Mon Dec 16 2024 Tuesday Night - Wednesday: A positively tilted trough looks to approach the area Tuesday Night. Low pressure will drag a cold front through the area with another chance for precip. Moisture quality is currently in question with this system with highest NBM pops southeast of Interstate 44 where moisture may have a better chance returning before frontal passage. Latest NBM data suggests only a 10% chance of 0.50in of more of rainfall at Springfield with that increasing to 40% across the West Plains region. Higher moisture and instability appear to be favored further to our south however if the system slows then these chances would increase and spread further north. The front does appear to clear the area Wednesday morning and this frontal passage will be a colder one with mean 850mb temps around 0C by afternoon. This will likely keep temps in the 40s as high pressure build south. Thursday - Sunday: Overall, ensembles are in better agreement with respect to the next shortwave that will drop southeast into the northern plains on Thursday. Ahead of this feature, temps on Thursday look to favor the above normal side as a brief return to southerly flow commences with highs in the 50s. A cold front will quickly change that by Friday with a glancing blow of colder air for Friday into the weekend. Latest NBM 25th-75th percentile spreads are only around 10 degrees which leads to higher confidence that temps will take a tumble into the 30s-40s for highs Friday-Sunday and lows in the teens to lower 20s. The extent of the cold air will be determined by the exact track of that shortwave energy with further west tracks favoring colder air for our area. There is high confidence that we will likely remain dry given the northwest flow pattern with NBM pops remaining below 10 percent through Sunday. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 454 AM CST Mon Dec 16 2024 Showers and thunderstorms will continue to move through the sites at the beginning of the TAF period with a quick end by 16z. IFR ceilings will occur for a period of time as well this morning however confidence is high that conditions will improve back into MVFR by mid morning and then VFR by late morning. Winds will gradually become more west to northwesterly however speeds will likely remain less than 15kts. && .SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...None. MO...None. && SHORT TERM...Burchfield LONG TERM...Burchfield AVIATION...Burchfield
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Springfield MO 540 AM CST Mon Dec 16 2024 KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-171145- Bourbon-Crawford-Cherokee-Benton-Morgan-Miller-Maries-Vernon- St. Clair-Hickory-Camden-Pulaski-Phelps-Barton-Cedar-Polk-Dallas- Laclede-Texas-Dent-Jasper-Dade-Greene-Webster-Wright-Newton- Lawrence-Christian-Douglas-Howell-Shannon-McDonald-Barry-Stone- Taney-Ozark-Oregon- 540 AM CST Mon Dec 16 2024 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of the Missouri Ozarks and extreme southeast Kansas. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight. Weather hazards expected... Elevated lightning risk. Limited excessive rainfall risk Limited Fog risk. DISCUSSION... Showers and thunderstorms will continue to move through locations along and south of Interstate 44 this morning. Frequent lightning and minor flooding will be a concern, especially along and south of Highway 60. Areas of fog will reduce visibility to less than one mile at times early this morning across the Truman Lake region. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday. Another system will bring shower and thunderstorm chances to the area again Tuesday night into Wednesday morning (30 to 60 percent). .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight. && More detailed information can be accessed at: http://www.weather.gov/sgf/dsspacket This product in graphical format...along with other weather... hydrological and climate information...at http://www.weather.gov/sgf Burchfield
The Springfield radar (KSGF), 45 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 12:29 UTC.
8 flood, 3 flash flood. Local standard time, as filed.
State Highway Z was closed due to flooding at the Finley River. A water rescue occurred at this location due to a vehicle being swept off in flood waters. Two occupants of the vehicle were successfully rescued.
A school bus got stuck in flood waters on County Road 557 at the Stewart Creek bridge. Two students had to be rescued from the school bus.
State Highway U was closed due to excessive rainfall at Pedelo Creek.
State Highway Y was closed due to excessive rainfall at Cowskin Creek.
State Highway 95 was closed due to flooding at Bryant Creek.
State Highway U was closed due to flooding at Bryant Creek.
Highway 142 was closed due to flooding at Bennet's River.
Highway 181 was closed due to flooding at Bryant Creek.
State Highway BB was closed due to flooding of the Big Piney River.
State Highway E was closed due to flooding at the Gasconade River.
State Highway H was closed due to flooding at Spring Creek.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Missouri in 2024Every state in 2024This day in weather historyWarnings in Missouri, December 2024
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1221149, 1221139, 1221140, 1221141, 1221142, 1221143, 1221144, 1221145, 1221146, 1221147, 1221148.