A slowly advancing cold front across Southern Arkansas continued moving southward late into the evening on December 16th. Concurrently, warm sector southerly flow provided weak but sufficient surface convergence just ahead of the cold front.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS SHV wrote it up.
A slowly advancing cold front across Southern Arkansas continued moving southward late into the evening on December 16th. Concurrently, warm sector southerly flow provided weak but sufficient surface convergence just ahead of the cold front. Strong convection with some weak QLCS features generally trained along the boundary/deep-layer moisture interface and was fed upstream by a sector of 1000-1250 J/kg of MUCAPE. Rainfall rates of 1.5-1.75/hour occurred, given the environment of deep moisture and unstable air with training profiles allowing for streaks of 2-3 inch totals. While soil conditions were fairly dry and generally receptible, they had become quite dormant and rainfall rates were sufficient for localized pooling and excessive run-off. As a result, a few isolated instances of flash flooding were reported across parts of Southwest Arkansas.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Shreveport, LA wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Dec 16, 5:40 PM CST, 1 hour 20 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Shreveport LA 540 PM CST Mon Dec 16 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Tuesday Night) Issued at 253 PM CST Mon Dec 16 2024 At 20z, a cold front was still northwest of the area across North Central Texas, into Southern Oklahoma, Northwest Arkansas, and Southern Missouri. Scattered convection has been gradually increasing in coverage and intensity during the last couple of hours. Some lightning has recently been observed in Southwest Arkansas. Latest mesoanalysis. indicates SBCAPE values in excess of 2500 J/kg in Northeast Texas, Southeast Oklahoma, and extreme Southwest Arkansas. Despite the ample instability, the primary limiting factor appears to be only meager deep layer shear. A couple of isolated severe thunderstorms posing a risk for damaging winds and large hail cannot be ruled out this evening. Current thinking is that the showers and thunderstorms should become better focused along the advancing frontal boundary this evening. A surface low and a weak mid-level trough may also provide some increased vertical ascent for convective development. The front's progress southward will slow this evening and should stall early Tuesday morning. This should keep the highest rain chances mainly north of a line from Tyler TX to El Dorado AR. As the front slows, this may result in some training of convection along and south of Interstate 30 tonight. However, a widespread flooding threat is not anticipated. The front will lift back northward during the day Tuesday, rain chances in the forecast, especially across Northeast Texas, Southeast Oklahoma and Southwest Arkansas. A much stronger upper trough will begin to dive southeast through the Plains, which will drive a stronger cold front towards the area. Much more widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected to spread across the region ahead of the front Tuesday night and into early Wednesday. With the front lifting north on Tuesday, most of the forecast area will be quite warm again. Daytime high temperatures should warm well into the 70s for most locations south of I-30. Portions of Southeast Oklahoma and Southwest Arkansas may struggle into the low 60s as the warm front won't lift north of those locations until late in the day Tuesday. Nuttall && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through next Sunday) Issued at 253 PM CST Mon Dec 16 2024 The aforementioned upper trough and cold front will sweep southeast and across the forecast area during the day Wednesday. Severe weather is not currently anticipated, but some of the storms could produce gusty winds and heavy downpours along the frontal boundary. The front will be rather progressive, and the precip should quickly diminish from northwest to southeast Wednesday afternoon and evening. Once the precip exits the area, no other significant rain chances are expected until at least next Monday. The big story in the long-term period will be the surge of cold air that filters into the area behind the departing front late Wednesday. Overnight low temperatures are only expected to be in the 30s and 40s with afternoon highs in the 50s to near 60 degrees F on Thursday and Friday morning. Another cold front is expected to bring a reinforcing shot of cold air into the region as a Canadian surface ridge builds southward into the Plains. Widespread sub-freezing temperatures are expected Friday night/Saturday morning. Temps should slowly moderate late in the weekend as low-level southerly flow and warm air advection gradually returns. Nuttall && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 524 PM CST Mon Dec 16 2024 A lingering frontal boundary across the region will allow for persistent convection through this evening across GGG/TXK/ELD terminal sites expanding to all I-20 terminals overnight. VFR conditions to become IFR by 17/12Z with improvement to VFR by 17/18Z. Otherwise, light south winds tonight to become southwest and increase to 5 to 10 knots on Tuesday./05/ && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Issued at 1202 PM CST Mon Dec 16 2024 Spotter activation may be necessary later this afternoon and into this evening across portions of Northeast Texas, Southeast Oklahoma, and Southwest Arkansas. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SHV 62 76 61 67 / 50 30 40 70 MLU 62 75 59 69 / 50 20 20 60 DEQ 52 63 50 59 / 40 40 80 30 TXK 58 70 56 64 / 60 40 70 50 ELD 58 71 57 66 / 60 30 60 60 TYR 62 75 58 64 / 50 20 50 50 GGG 61 76 58 66 / 50 30 50 60 LFK 63 76 61 70 / 20 20 10 60 && .SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. LA...None. OK...None. TX...None. && SHORT TERM...09 LONG TERM....09 AVIATION...05
The Western Arkansas radar (KSRX), 137 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 01:00 UTC.
2 flash flood. Local standard time, as filed.
Flash flooding reported with high water covering Provo Road.
Flash flooding with high water covering several roads in the city of Prescott.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Arkansas in 2024Every state in 2024This day in weather historyWarnings in Arkansas, December 2024
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1228045, 1228047.