Tornadoes and Hail in Missouri, April 18, 2024

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
237 PM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- The threat for strong to severe thunderstorms will continue
  across the area until approximately 0200 UTC. All hazards
  (large hail, damaging winds, isolated tornadoes) are on the
  table, though there should be a transition more from large hail
  to damaging winds by this evening.

- Seasonably cool and mostly dry weather is forecast through the
  weekend, with frost potential both Saturday and Sunday nights.

&&

.SHORT TERM...  (Through Late Friday Night)
Issued at 235 PM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024

The earlier outflow boundary has largely washed out, with the focus
for convection moreso along the synoptic cold front early this
afternoon. A couple of supercells have developed in western
Missouri, with additional development along the front further
northeast into northeast Missouri and west-central Illinois.
Right-moving supercells may tend to ride the frontal boundary as
it pushes eastward while non supercells and any left movers would
tend to cut across the front (and therefore may weaken). The
rather linear forcing along the cold front also should tend more
toward line/bowing segments, with damaging winds the growing
concern late this afternoon into early this evening. Speaking of
the cold front, it was nearing a KJLN>>KCOU>>KI63 line as of 1900
UTC, and will continue to progress to the east, likely exiting
the far southeastern CWA around 0100-0200 UTC. While there likely
will be some elevated shower and thunderstorm activity behind it,
anything behind the front should not be severe.

Strong low-level cold air advection settles in behind the frontal
boundary overnight tonight, with lows dropping back into the upper
30s to upper 40s from northwest to southeast. These readings would
be near to slightly below normal for mid/late April. Dry conditions
along with continued seasonably cool temperatures are forecast to
continue Friday and Friday night.

Gosselin

&&

.LONG TERM...  (Saturday through Next Thursday)
Issued at 235 PM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024

(Saturday - Sunday Night)

There is little/no change in the synoptic pattern through this
weekend, with broad surface high pressure over the Mississippi
Valley. Persistent below normal temperatures (roughly 5-10 degrees)
are expected both day and night. We will have to watch for frost
development both Saturday and Sunday night given the light/variable
winds expected. There may be more clouds Saturday night (especially
in parts of southeast Missouri and southwest Illinois), with a
better chance of a widespread clear sky Sunday night. Lows in the
mid to upper 30s are forecast each night, favoring the development
of areas to potentially widespread frost if it is clear.

(Monday - Next Thursday)

Temperatures are expected to moderate early next week as mid/upper
level heights rise and 850-hPa temperatures climb back closer to
+5C. Ensemble guidance shows a midlevel shortwave trough moving
across the Upper Midwest Monday night into Tuesday, with a cold
front draped to its southwest. This front is likely to move through
the area late Tuesday/Tuesday evening, bringing a chance of showers
and perhaps a few thunderstorms. Behind the front, slightly cooler
and drier weather is favored for midweek next week.

Gosselin

&&

.AVIATION...  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1206 PM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024

Chances of showers and thunderstorms will gradually increase over
the next several hours along/ahead of a cold front. The best
chance for storms at KUIN/KCOU/KJEF is mid-late afternoon, and
closer to 0000 UTC in/around metro St. Louis. Hail, strong winds,
and very low visibilities are all possible in thunderstorms. Some
trailing shower activity may linger for a few hours behind the
cold front, with ceilings lowering to low MVFR along with a wind
shift to the northwest. A brief period of IFR ceilings is
possible this evening/early overnight, but was not confident
enough to add in at this time.

Gosselin

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
IL...None.
&&

WFO LSX

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service St Louis MO
239 PM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024

ILZ058>060-064-065-069-070-074-079-095>102-MOZ018-019-026-027-
034>036-041-042-047>052-059>065-072>075-084-085-099-191945-
Greene IL-Macoupin IL-Montgomery IL-Bond IL-Fayette IL-Clinton IL-
Marion IL-Washington IL-Randolph IL-Adams IL-Brown IL-Pike IL-
Calhoun IL-Jersey IL-Madison IL-Saint Clair IL-Monroe IL-Knox MO-
Lewis MO-Shelby MO-Marion MO-Monroe MO-Ralls MO-Pike MO-Boone MO-
Audrain MO-Moniteau MO-Cole MO-Osage MO-Callaway MO-Montgomery MO-
Lincoln MO-Gasconade MO-Warren MO-Saint Charles MO-Franklin MO-
Saint Louis MO-Saint Louis City MO-Jefferson MO-Crawford MO-
Washington MO-Saint Francois MO-Sainte Genevieve MO-Iron MO-
Madison MO-Reynolds MO-
239 PM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of eastern and
central Missouri as well as west central and southwest Illinois.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Thunderstorms are likely today across most of the area through this
evening. Some of the thunderstorms through early evening may be
severe, capable of producing damaging winds, large hail, and a
tornado or two.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

There is a chance of thunderstorms over parts of the area on Monday
night through Tuesday night.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report any form of severe weather to the
National Weather Service in St. Louis.

Gosselin