Hail and Damaging Winds in Missouri, April 18, 2024

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1220 PM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Severe thunderstorms possible through 7 PM. Primary risk will
  be large hail to tennis ball size and damaging wind gusts
  60-70 mph. Isolated tornadoes possible mainly over south
  central Missouri.

- Below normal temperatures for Friday through Sunday.

- Normal to above normal temperatures for next week.

- Rain chances for Monday night into Wednesday next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 203 AM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024

Synoptic overview and current conditions: Upper level analysis
and water vapor imagery show upper level low pressure over
southern Saskatchewan and Manitoba into North Dakota. South of
the low, some quick westerlies with the main upper jet to the
north over the northern plains and upper Mississippi valley.
Lower to the ground, 850mb low was located over western KS with
a low level jet of 40 to 50 kts over central and eastern KS
which was aiding the convection currently occurring over
northeast KS into northwest MO. This convection was remaining
northwest of the CWA so far tonight. A surface front was
extending northeast of a low in southwest KS into northeast KS
and central/northern MO near the I-70 corridor. Moisture
continues to draw northward into the area south of the front and
dew points in far southern MO were in the 50s and 60s. Dew
points were in the 40s in central MO.

Severe weather potential today and this evening: Moisture and
instability will continue to increase this morning over the area
with ML CAPES in the 1500-2500 j/kg range from late morning into
the early evening ahead of southeastward moving cold front.
There will be the potential for some discrete cells developing
ahead of the front from late morning into the early afternoon
before storms become more linear with the main risk being with
large hail up to golf ball size. Not overly impressed with 0-1km
or 0-3km shear values ahead of the front with this system. As
the afternoon wears on, the storms are expected to become more
linear along the cold front and the main risk will be with
damaging wind gusts up to 60 mph. If you can get a northwest to
southeast oriented bowing segment along the QLCS, 0-3km shear
vectors of 30-40kts may support an isolated tornado risk over
the eastern counties from late afternoon into the early evening.
This system should be quick to move through the area with areas
in the west likely not receiving much rainfall with more
scattered convection. Best thunderstorm chances for any 1 point
will generally occur over a 3 to 4 hour window.

Convection should end in the east by the mid to late evening
with clearing in the west late. Lows tonight will be in the low
40s in the west to the upper 40s to near 50 in the southeast.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 203 AM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024

Cooler than normal temperatures Friday - Sunday: Behind the
front, a cooler air mass will begin to push into the area and
will bring cooler than normal temperatures to the area for
Friday through the upcoming weekend. Highs will generally be in
the 60s with lows dipping into the upper 30s to low 40s over the
weekend.  Some upper energy will push across the area late in
the weekend and may bring some light rain or sprinkles to the
area late Saturday into Sunday mainly in the south, but the main
energy and moisture will be off to the south of the area.
Little to no measurable precipitation is expected with this
feature.

Temperatures warming back to normal and above normal next week:
The Canadian air mass will push east of the area early next week
and we should see a return to a low level southerly flow behind
the low. Increased low level warm advection and Gulf moisture
will also occur. Temperatures should warm back into the upper
60s to mid 70s through the period.

Rain chances Monday night - Wednesday: Upper level energy and a
surface frontal system should move through the area Monday night
into Wednesday of next week bringing the next decent rain
chances to the area. Best instability at this time looks to stay
south of the area, though there looks like enough for some
thunderstorms but severe chances look to be pretty low at this
time.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 604 AM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024

For the 18z TAFS, thunderstorms will push into the area during
the afternoon hours in the west and shift east across the area
during the late afternoon and early evening hours. Will see
gusty winds initially out of the south, become southwesterly
just ahead of the front and then switch to the northwest and
north behind the front. Ceilings will lower into MVFR and some
IFR with the convection and then IFR behind the front, improving
into MVFR overnight.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Angle

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Springfield MO
357 AM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-190900-
Bourbon-Crawford-Cherokee-Benton-Morgan-Miller-Maries-Vernon-
St. Clair-Hickory-Camden-Pulaski-Phelps-Barton-Cedar-Polk-Dallas-
Laclede-Texas-Dent-Jasper-Dade-Greene-Webster-Wright-Newton-
Lawrence-Christian-Douglas-Howell-Shannon-McDonald-Barry-Stone-
Taney-Ozark-Oregon-
357 AM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of the Missouri
Ozarks and extreme southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Weather hazards expected...

  Limited tornado risk.
  Elevated hail risk.
  Elevated thunderstorm wind damage risk.
  Significant lightning risk.
  Limited non thunderstorm wind risk.

DISCUSSION...

  Strong to severe thunderstorms are expected to develop ahead of
  a cold front from this morning into the early evening. Hail to
  the size of golf balls, damaging wind gusts up to 60 mph and
  isolated tornadoes will be possible. The risk of severe storms
  will mainly be east of a Joplin to Nevada line, with the better
  chances of severe storms further east in central and south
  central Missouri this afternoon.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

  Non-severe thunderstorms will be possible Monday night into
  Wednesday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

  Spotter activation may be needed later today or tonight for
  areas mainly east of an Osage beach to Branson line.

&&

More detailed information can be accessed at:
http://www.weather.gov/sgf/dsspacket

This product in graphical format...along with other weather...
hydrological and climate information...at
http://www.weather.gov/sgf

Lindenberg