Strong gradient winds developed in the wake of widespread rain on the night of February 3rd. A tree in Clinton was blown down onto a house.
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The episode as NWS JAN wrote it up.
Strong gradient winds developed in the wake of widespread rain on the night of February 3rd. A tree in Clinton was blown down onto a house.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Jackson, MS wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Feb 3, 9:50 PM CST, 1 hour earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jackson MS 950 PM CST Sat Feb 3 2024 ...New MESOSCALE UPDATE... .MESOSCALE UPDATE... Issued at 950 PM CST Sat Feb 3 2024 No significant adjustments have been made at this point to the near term forecast and hazard graphics. The back edge of the primary rain shield is approaching the Highway 49 corridor, and stronger winds and heavier rainfall have been confined to locations mainly south of our forecast area where deep convection is more active given the milder boundary layer. However, we're beginning to see winds increase a bit more further inland with gusts now reaching 40 mph in the Jackson area. Farther west, we're seeing convective rainfall development with an uptick in lightning noted in association with the upper level cold and steeper lapse rates. Will maintain rain chances in the wake of the primary rain shield to reflect this increase in convective development. /EC/ && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 248 PM CST Sat Feb 3 2024 Through Sunday: Stratiform light to moderate rainfall continues to spread across the region this afternoon in association with an advancing trough axis. As this system advances across the area tonight, a few bands of more convective type rain may occur and isolated thunder can't be ruled out with this. Confidence in a flash flood threat is fairly low, and 12z HREF guidance did little to change this, with LPMM QPF keeping the highest totals closer to the coast. However, given recent rain and with some potential for minor river flooding to return, we will maintain a limited flooding threat graphic for tonight. It still isn't out of the realm of possibility that localized higher rainfall rates could result in isolated instances of flooding. Of perhaps more interest and potentially greater impact is the potential for gusty wind tonight. A 50-60 kt low level jet will shift across the region late this afternoon through early Sunday morning. Typically the overnight hours are less favorable for mixing these stronger wind gusts to the surface. However, high res guidance has consistently depicted a corridor of stronger surface wind gusts mainly around 40-50 kt advancing northeastward across the area overnight. Some runs have suggested this might be associated a wake low or gravity wave type feature corresponding with an abrupt decrease in precip. While confidence in the highest wind speeds being realized is low given the timing, occasional gusts to around 40-45 mph still appear quite plausible. Thus the outlook graphic for gradient winds will be maintained and an elevated threat has been introduced for areas where it appears most likely mainly for a brief period of higher gusts. The band of heavier rain will shift into east MS by Sunday morning with many areas just dealing with low clouds and patchy drizzle through the early part of the day. Then heading into the afternoon, coverage of lighter rain may begin to increase again as this system slowly pivots across the region. Rain rates are expected to remain lower by this time, so no additional flash flooding threat is anticipated. /DL/ Sunday night through Friday night: Come Sunday evening a large nearly stacked low will be centered over the southern half of our CWA. Wrap around moisture and precipitation will continue over our CWA as the low pressure system continues moving southeast to the Florida peninsula by Monday evening. Model consensus suggests that it will take until Monday morning for the measurable rainfall to end. Ridging surface and aloft will build over our region in the wake of the departing low pressure system. This will result in dry weather and a warming trend going into the end of the week. By Thursday afternoon the ridging surface and a loft will have become centered over the east coast. Another nearly stacked low will be tracking east across the northern Plains while sending a cold front toward our CWA. Rain chances will return to our northwest most zones Thursday afternoon. Rain chances will continue to increase and spread southeast through Friday night. Models suggests the weak cold front will stall across our southern zones by Saturday morning helping to prolog rain chances into the weekend. South of the cold front temperatures will continue well above normal and top out in the 70s Friday. /22/ && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 550 PM CST Sat Feb 3 2024 Overall, aviation weather conditions will be deteriorating from southwest to northeast across the forecast area overnight as rain increases, ceilings lower, and surface wind/llws strengthen. The worst conditions should be during the morning hours, but some improvement is likely by Sunday afternoon for western/southern TAF sites as greater ascent begins to shift to our east. /EC/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Jackson 49 62 44 58 / 90 50 80 0 Meridian 48 58 41 61 / 90 90 80 0 Vicksburg 49 62 44 58 / 100 50 70 0 Hattiesburg 49 65 44 59 / 90 50 60 0 Natchez 48 64 44 58 / 100 30 40 0 Greenville 50 55 44 56 / 100 70 60 0 Greenwood 50 56 44 59 / 90 70 70 0 && .JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MS...None. LA...None. AR...None. && DL/22/EC
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jackson MS
957 PM CST Sat Feb 3 2024
MSZ043-044-048>050-055-056-064>066-073-074-040500-
Scott MS-Smith MS-Jones MS-Jefferson Davis MS-Covington MS-Lamar MS-
Leake MS-Hinds MS-Rankin MS-Madison MS-Simpson MS-Forrest MS-
957 PM CST Sat Feb 3 2024
...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT SOUTHWESTERN LEAKE...RANKIN...
SIMPSON...FORREST...SMITH...COVINGTON...SCOTT...LAMAR...EASTERN
HINDS...JONES...SOUTHEASTERN MADISON AND JEFFERSON DAVIS COUNTIES
THROUGH 1100 PM CST...
At 955 PM CST, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Progress to near Clem to near Seminary.
Movement was north at 50 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects.
Strong thunderstorms will be near...
Magee, Collins, Mount Olive, Sanatorium, Shivers, and Clem around
1000 PM CST.
Mendenhall, D'Lo, and Pinola around 1005 PM CST.
Braxton, Cato, and Martinville around 1010 PM CST.
Puckett, Johns, Harrisville, Union, and Piney Woods around 1015 PM
CST.
Jackson, Star, and White Oak around 1020 PM CST.
Brandon and Monterey around 1025 PM CST.
Pearl, Florence, Polkville, Fannin, and Whites around 1030 PM CST.
Flowood, Richland, and Pelahatchie around 1035 PM CST.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
&&
LAT...LON 3093 8934 3101 8935 3100 8965 3143 8965
3144 8982 3139 8982 3139 8996 3176 8997
3175 9012 3180 9015 3186 9013 3199 9022
3244 9032 3267 9007 3258 8933 3180 8932
3163 8894 3143 8894 3143 8914 3091 8915
TIME...MOT...LOC 0355Z 166DEG 59KT 3151 8996 3176 8982 3151 8955
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH
CRThe national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
1 strong wind. Local standard time, as filed.
Following a period of rain, strong winds with a wake low event blew down a tree onto a house. Peak wind gusts at the nearby Jackson-Hawkins Field ASOS site KHKS were around 45 mph at the time.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Mississippi in 2024Every state in 2024This day in weather historyWarnings in Mississippi, February 2024
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1165021.