Scattered thunderstorms developed along a stationary surface boundary which was across northern MN to eastern SD. Most of the thunderstorms were sub-severe, however a few did produce periods of heavy rainfall and strong wind gusts.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS MPX wrote it up.
Scattered thunderstorms developed along a stationary surface boundary which was across northern MN to eastern SD. Most of the thunderstorms were sub-severe, however a few did produce periods of heavy rainfall and strong wind gusts. A few trees were downed in Yellow Medicine and Wright Counties.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Twin Cities, MN wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 28, 4:58 PM CST, 7 minutes earlier. Its key messages:
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 558 PM CDT Sun Jul 28 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Mainly disorganized clusters of showers and thunderstorms are expected this afternoon through tonight. Storms will redevelop east of I-35 Monday. A few strong to severe storms and localized heavy downpours will be possible with activity both days. - The unsettled summer pattern will continue to bring chances for showers and thunderstorms Monday night through Thursday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 250 PM CDT Sun Jul 28 2024 Radar this afternoon indicates scattered showers and thunderstorms developing from northeast to west central MN ahead of a weak surface front positioned from northwest MN to eastern SD. As instability continues to build, these storms will become more numerous. With a near total lack of wind shear, storms will tend to become clusters and then build along resultant outflow boundaries. Guidance has not been handling the current activity well and initiation is occurring several hours before some models. A few strong gusts may accompany the more organized clusters, otherwise the main threat will be locally heavy rain. There is a potential for 2 to 4 inches under the more persistent/training cells. Activity will build east slowly though the evening as the front crawls east. By late evening, waning instability should lead to a weakening of convection, but some activity will likely remain through the overnight from western WI to southern MN. Storms will redevelop across eastern MN and WI Monday in close proximity to the disturbance exiting to the east. As the afternoon progresses, convection should end from west to east. Meanwhile, another shortwave will track east across the northern Plains Monday. Storms will develop in the Dakotas in the afternoon, likely organizing into clusters or line segments by evening. Any remaining activity could progress into MN during the overnight hours and early Tuesday. Introduced low PoPs region wide for this period, but they may need to be increased when confidence in timing and longevity of such convection increases. A stronger shortwave will follow Tuesday night. More clusters of storms are probable into early Wednesday. ECMWF suggests organized MCS potential, which is a good possibility considering the approach of an EML into southwestern MN, strong instability, and favorable shear. An even stronger shortwave is set to arrive Wednesday night. Considerable convective development is possible Wednesday afternoon through Thursday morning, but diving into specifics at this range is difficult with multiple convective episodes preceding it. One or more MCSs could evolve across the Midwest with this round. The pattern should quiet some later in the week and next weekend, but a prolonged dry pattern is not likely at the moment. There is some signal for another shortwave Sunday. Temperatures will remain at or above normal through the period, although next week continues to trend cooler. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 543 PM CDT Sun Jul 28 2024 Focus continues to be on potential impacts from thunderstorms and heavy rain at the terminals this evening and overnight. Convection has developed across central Minnesota, but is tracking slowly to the northeast within a low-shear environment. The slow motion adds uncertainty to expected arrival times this evening. Have maintained several PROB30s through the first portion of the TAF period. Forecast soundings have continued to advertise a period of MVFR or lower ceilings heading towards daybreak, along with lingering showers. Improvements are expected for the second half of Monday, with light winds turning out of the northwest during the afternoon. KMSP...Watching convection near STC closely as recent storm motion has suggested a turn to the southeast. Confidence is low in how long this convection will be able to hold together given the environment discussed above. PROB30 for -TSRA remains in place from 4z-10z. Period of MVFR ceilings likely with continued showery activity around daybreak, followed by improvements for the rest of Monday. /OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ TUE...VFR. Wind S 5 kts. WED...VFR. Chc -SHRA. Wind SE 5-10kts. THU...VFR. Chc -TSRA. Wind N 5-10kts. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...None. WI...None. && DISCUSSION...Borghoff AVIATION...Strus
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 252 PM CDT Sun Jul 28 2024 MNZ041>045-047>070-073>078-082>085-091>093-WIZ014>016-023>028- 292000- Douglas-Todd-Morrison-Mille Lacs-Kanabec-Stevens-Pope-Stearns- Benton-Sherburne-Isanti-Chisago-Lac Qui Parle-Swift-Chippewa- Kandiyohi-Meeker-Wright-Hennepin-Anoka-Ramsey-Washington- Yellow Medicine-Renville-McLeod-Sibley-Carver-Scott-Dakota- Redwood-Brown-Nicollet-Le Sueur-Rice-Goodhue-Watonwan-Blue Earth- Waseca-Steele-Martin-Faribault-Freeborn-Polk-Barron-Rusk- St. Croix-Pierce-Dunn-Pepin-Eau Claire- 252 PM CDT Sun Jul 28 2024 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central and southern Minnesota, and west central Wisconsin. .DAY ONE...Tonight. There is a Slight Risk (level 2 of 5) for severe thunderstorms this evening across western Minnesota. Isolated instances of damaging winds are possible. Locally heavy rainfall is also possible. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday. Multiple rounds of thunderstorms are expected this week. Some severe weather is possible, but details are uncertain at this time. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SKYWARN spotter activation may be needed through this evening across Minnesota. Borghoff
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
502 PM CDT Sun Jul 28 2024
MNC145-282300-
Stearns-
502 PM CDT Sun Jul 28 2024
...URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING EXPECTED...
Thunderstorms with heavy rain will cause minor flooding in the
following counties...
Stearns...
* Until 600 PM CDT.
* At 502 PM CDT, Doppler radar indicated heavy rain due to
thunderstorms. This will cause urban and small stream flooding.
Overflow of water will result in minor flooding of poor drainage
locations in the area.
* Some locations that will experience minor flooding include...
St. Cloud, Sartell, Sauk Rapids, and Waite Park.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.
Excessive runoff from heavy rainfall will cause flooding of small
creeks and streams, urban areas, highways, streets and underpasses as
well as other drainage areas and low lying spots.
&&
LAT...LON 4563 9420 4560 9420 4559 9417 4557 9415
4551 9414 4549 9414 4550 9428 4558 9427
CTGSpecial Weather Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
543 PM CDT Sun Jul 28 2024
MNZ059-282330-
Wright MN-
543 PM CDT Sun Jul 28 2024
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHWESTERN WRIGHT COUNTY
THROUGH 630 PM CDT...
At 543 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 6
miles north of Howard Lake, or 11 miles west of Buffalo, moving
southeast at 20 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects.
Locations impacted include...
Buffalo, Montrose, Cokato, Howard Lake, Waverly, French Lake, Rassat,
and Smith Lake.
This includes U.S. Highway 12 between mile markers 115 and 131.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.
&&
LAT...LON 4513 9378 4497 9413 4498 9417 4510 9427
4514 9426 4517 9425 4524 9413
TIME...MOT...LOC 2243Z 306DEG 16KT 4515 9410
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH
CTGThe Minneapolis radar (KMPX), 52 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 23:04 UTC.
2 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
A tree was blown down, blocking 10th St. between Keats Ave and County Road 6.
Trees were downed.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Minnesota in 2024Every state in 2024This day in weather historyWarnings in Minnesota, July 2024
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1205389, 1205390.