Wildfire in Colorado, July 28 to 31, 2024

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
210 PM MDT Sun Jul 28 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Quiet weather returns with plenty of sunny skies expected
  today. Some gusty winds up to 25 to 35 mph will be common
  across the region this afternoon.

- The dry air and gusty winds have increased critical fire
  weather concerns. Red Flag Warnings remain in effect today.
  Fire Weather Watches have been issued for Monday for the
  northern valleys in Colorado for another day of low humidities
  and gusty winds.

- The warm and dry weather will continue through much of next
  week as high pressure returns.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 204 PM MDT Sun Jul 28 2024

PWAT values collected by the GJT sounding jumped from 0.99"
yesterday evening to 0.23" this morning denoting a stark change in
the environment across eastern Utah and western Colorado. As a
result most will experience sunny skies with very low chances (0-
15%) for precipitation today. Satellite imagery does show some
towering cumulus development in the northern Uintas early this
afternoon. Virga and a few sprinkles may develop but measurable
precipitation is not anticipated. Breezy winds with gusts up to 25
to 35 mph are likely area wide this afternoon with an upper-level
jet upwards of 70 knots overhead. This, paired with the dry airmass
in place, is resulting in elevated to critical fire weather
conditions which will continue to be of concern until winds subside
later this evening.

Tomorrow the upper-level jet begins to slide off to the northeast.
This helps lower winds across the southern half of the forecast area
but north of I-70 remains breezy. Elevated to critical fire weather
conditions may develop once again with northern Colorado showcasing
the highest confidence for critical fire weather concerns.
Elsewhere, the biggest thing to watch for will be isolated showers
and storms in the San Juans. Otherwise warm and dry conditions
persist.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 204 PM MDT Sun Jul 28 2024

On Tuesday another low pressure system tracks over the Pacific
Northwest and Northern Rockies causing the high pressure to become
centered over the Southern Plains. The high will be able to advect
some moisture in from the south while the left over dry slot drifts
northward. There may enough moisture for afternoon showers and
storms in the San Juans and southern Sawatch range. The minimum RH
values will stay in the teens across the northwest half of the
forecast area. The pressure gradient will remain overhead and
support wind gusts of 25-30 mph mainly north of I-70. This will
result in elevated fire weather conditions where fuels are critical,
which is northwest Colorado for now. On Wednesday the shortwave
trough progresses east over the Plains allowing the high pressure
ridge to be pushed back westward. It eventually sets up shop
overhead by the end of the week. There are some hints that this will
allow moisture to recirculate around the high into our CWA through
next weekend, but this is still a ways out there. The main story
here is the drier pattern and return to hot well above normal
temperatures as lower desert valleys look to get back to triple
digit heat by mid to late week as the high pressure builds back over
the region. Storms are possible over the San Juans each afternoon
and possibly extending up into the central divide mountains by
Friday into next weekend as moisture potentially returns, but dry
and hot weather will be the predominant pattern.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1130 AM MDT Sun Jul 28 2024

VFR conditions are expected through the taf period. Winds
increase this afternoon with gusts generally in the 20-30 mph
range.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 204 PM MDT Sun Jul 28 2024

Critical fire weather concerns continue this afternoon as dry
and breezy conditions take hold area wide. RH is expected to
drop into the teens and single digits this afternoon and early
evening, with wind gusts upwards of 35 mph. The Red Flag
Warnings remain in effect. Tomorrow and Tuesday, similar
conditions are anticipated but only for the northern valley fire
zones 200 and 202. Confidence has increased enough to issue a
Fire Weather Watch for those two zones on Monday but we will
continue to monitor to see if a watch will be needed on Tuesday.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MDT this evening for COZ200-202-
     203-205-290-292-293.
     Fire Weather Watch from Monday afternoon through Monday
     evening for COZ200-202.
UT...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MDT this evening for UTZ486-487-
     490.

&&

SHORT TERM...KAA
LONG TERM...KJS
AVIATION...TGJT
FIRE WEATHER...TGJT

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
311 AM MDT Sun Jul 28 2024

COZ001>014-017>023-UTZ022>025-027>029-291315-
Lower Yampa River Basin-Central Yampa River Basin-
Roan and Tavaputs Plateaus-Elkhead and Park Mountains-
Upper Yampa River Basin-Grand Valley-Debeque to Silt Corridor-
Central Colorado River Basin-Grand and Battlement Mesas-
Gore and Elk Mountains/Central Mountain Valleys-
Central Gunnison and Uncompahgre River Basin-
West Elk and Sawatch Mountains-Flat Tops-
Upper Gunnison River Valley-Uncompahgre Plateau and Dallas Divide-
Northwest San Juan Mountains-Southwest San Juan Mountains-
Paradox Valley/Lower Dolores River-
Four Corners/Upper Dolores River-Animas River Basin-
San Juan River Basin-Southeast Utah-Eastern Uinta Mountains-
Eastern Uinta Basin-Tavaputs Plateau-Arches/Grand Flat-
La Sal and Abajo Mountains-Canyonlands/Natural Bridges-
311 AM MDT Sun Jul 28 2024

This hazardous weather outlook is for eastern Utah and western
Colorado.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Red Flag Warnings are in effect for portions of eastern Utah and
western Colorado as dry air and gusty winds will create critical
fire weather conditions. Outside of that, sunny skies are expected
with warm temperatures.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

A Fire Weather Watch has been issued for Monday across the
northernvalleys as dry air and gusty winds will keep critical
fire weather conditions a concern. Some afternoon storms look to
return to the mountains by mid next week with dry and warm weather
elsewhere.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed.