Typical South Texas heat under a ridge in the summer.
Every event with a place to put it; 6 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS CRP wrote it up.
Typical South Texas heat under a ridge in the summer.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Corpus Christi, TX wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 28, 11:12 AM CST, 1 hour 6 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
1212 PM CDT Sun Jul 28 2024
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 204 AM CDT Sun Jul 28 2024
Key Messages:
- Marginal risk of excessive rainfall Sunday.
After a lull in convective activity overnight, showers and
thunderstorms are redeveloping over the northern Coastal Bend and
Victoria Crossroads. Based on the CAMs guidance, coverage will
increase this morning, expanding into the Coastal Plains. Additional
rainfall amounts are only expected to be up to 0.5" over the Coastal
Plains and Coastal Bend, though, with PWATs remaining roughly 2.0-
2.5" today, heavy rainfall is still possible. While uncertainty is
high, flash flooding is still very much a concern in any areas
where high rainfall rates fall over saturated soils. Will keep the
Flash Flood Watch in place through 00Z Monday with this threat in
mind.
The mid to upper level trough that has plagued us these last few
days will begin to shift the northwest today and high pressure
will build into the area from the east. This will bring us drier
air, with PWATs dropping below 2.0" for the first time in several
days. We could still see a few lingering showers tonight and early
Monday, but the rainfall will be coming to an end this evening
through Monday.
Of course, saturated soils, sufficient low level moisture with drier
air aloft, and light winds means we could see some patchy fog
developing over the Coastal Plains and Victoria Crossroads each
morning so motorists will need to use caution when traveling.
Probability of fog still remains low, but it is something we
should mention.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through next Saturday)
Issued at 204 AM CDT Sun Jul 28 2024
Key Messages:
- Minor to moderate risk of heat related impacts this week.
The long-term forecast period begins with an upper-level ridge
firmly established over the Southern Plains. This synoptic feature
will contribute to increased subsidence and limited moisture,
resulting in predominately dry conditions for South Texas through
much of the week.
Monday Night through Thursday:
Atmospheric Conditions: With the upper-level ridge in place, expect
a stable atmosphere with minimal chances (10% or less) for
precipitation. The subsidence associated with the ridge will
suppress convective activity.
Temperature Forecast: High temperatures will range from around 90
degrees along the coast to approximately 100 degrees across the
Brush Country. Heat indices are progged to settle into the 105-110
range daily, promoting a minor to moderate risk of heat-related
impacts throughout the week.
Saharan Dust Event: By around mid-week, a plume of Saharan dust is
expected to arrive, leading to hazy skies. This dust will also
enhance the potential for vibrant sunrises and sunsets. The dust is
anticipated to move westward out of the region by the end of the day
Thursday.
Friday through Sunday:
Changing Weather Pattern: Towards the end of the workweek, a weak
disturbance will slide westward over the Gulf of Mexico and move
inland over South Texas. Concurrently, a plume of deeper moisture
will spread across the Western Gulf.
Precipitation Chances: Due to the approaching disturbance and
increased moisture, we will have a slight chance (around 20%) of
showers and thunderstorms over the weekend. These chances will be
mainly confined to our northeastern counties.
Temperature and Heat Index: Similar to earlier in the week, high
temperatures will remain consistent, with coastal areas seeing
around 90 degrees and inland areas experiencing up to around 100
degrees. Heat indices will continue to be in the 105-110 degree
range, maintaining the minor to moderate risk of heat-related
impacts.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1200 PM CDT Sun Jul 28 2024
Less coverage of convection this morning than previous couple of
days. Scattered convection is expected through the afternoon, but
should shift north and west and become more isolated by late
afternoon. This is due to high pressure building across S TX from
the east. The high will continue to build across S TX through
tonight and Monday, leading to drier conditions. However, can not
rule out isolated sea breeze convection Monday afternoon. Overall,
VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the TAF period
with brief IFR/MVFR in and around showers and thunderstorms
through this afternoon. Brief period of patchy fog late tonight
into early Monday morning will be possible, mainly from ALI to
VCT. Surface winds gusting to around 20 knots can be expected this
afternoon and again Monday afternoon.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 556 AM CDT Sun Jul 28 2024
We begin the TAF period with ongoing convection over the Coastal
Plains and Victoria Crossroads. Once again, heavy rain is possible
through at least midday today though coverage looks a bit more
sparse than yesterday. MVFR to IFR conditions could occur in and
around any precipitation. Convection will wane through the
afternoon with no significant precipitation expected after 00Z.
Light to moderate onshore flow will prevail, and a return to VFR
conditions this evening.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi 91 80 92 80 / 40 0 0 0
Victoria 88 77 92 78 / 60 10 10 0
Laredo 95 78 100 78 / 30 10 0 0
Alice 92 77 97 77 / 50 0 0 0
Rockport 91 81 92 81 / 50 0 0 0
Cotulla 95 78 100 79 / 50 10 0 0
Kingsville 92 79 95 79 / 40 0 0 0
Navy Corpus 89 82 90 82 / 50 0 0 0
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Flood Watch until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ234-243>247-
343>347-443-447.
GM...None.
&&
SHORT TERM...LS
LONG TERM....BF
AVIATION...TE/81The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
6 heat. Local standard time, as filed.
Heat index values of 110-111 were observed at KNQI.
Heat index values of 110-116 were observed at KNQI.
Heat index values of 110 were observed at KALI at KNOG.
Heat index values of 110-115 were observed at KNQI.
Heat index values of 110-115 were observed at KNQI.
Heat index values of 110-112 were observed at KNOG.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Texas in 2024Every state in 2024This day in weather historyWarnings in Texas, July 2024
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1206432, 1206433, 1206436, 1206434, 1206435, 1206438.