There was an isolated report of hail up to three quarters of an inch in diameter near South Haven.
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The episode as NWS GRR wrote it up.
There was an isolated report of hail up to three quarters of an inch in diameter near South Haven.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Grand Rapids, MI wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Aug 5, 6:59 AM EST, 32 minutes earlier. Its key messages:
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 759 AM EDT Mon Aug 5 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Chance for Morning Storms, Then Mostly Quieter Afternoon - Another Round of Showers/Storms Tonight into Tuesday - Mainly Dry with Near Normal Temperatures Mid Week into the Weekend && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 331 AM EDT Mon Aug 5 2024 - Chance for Morning Storms, Then Mostly Quieter Afternoon For today, the most likely period for thunderstorm activity is from the early morning hours to midday. Very early on, the best risk for storms exists near and north of M-20 through about 09z. However, there is a weak LLJ across NE IL and southern Lake Michigan through the morning hours, with a reservoir of elevated instability (1000- 2000 J/kg) over the lake as well. It is along this CAPE gradient that most models are firing convection in the 06z-15z time frame, and this coincides with 30-40 kts of effective bulk shear, so some storm organization is plausible though severe thunderstorms are not likely. A moisture rich airmass moves into the region during this time as dew points climb into the 70s near and south of a Muskegon to Alma line, and PWATs increase to 1.75"-2.00". The general theme is for thunderstorm coverage to increase in the 06z-12z time frame over the lake, spreading inland. 00z CAMs do support hourly rainfall rates of 0.50"-1.00" under the heavier storms. Activity should weaken and head east after 15z. A few isolated storms may pop this afternoon along and just south of the boundary left by the morning storms, with the greatest risk along and east of I-69. Most areas appear to dry out and quiet down for the afternoon hours, but will monitor trends. - Another Round of Showers/Storms Tonight into Tuesday More widespread rainfall is still on tap for late tonight into Thursday. Most of the steadier rain looks to hold off until after 06z Tuesday. Model guidance has consistently shown the threat for an elevated warm front draped across the region and solid upper troughing and an upper jet (right entrance region) traversing the region. PWATs remain quite elevated, near 2.00". The fact that this wave is already producing storms across MT and the Dakotas makes it easily traceable and given solid model agreement on the propagation of the wave, we have confidence in a broad area of showers with some embedded thunderstorms (heavy, potentially) moving into the region very late tonight into Tuesday morning. Given an expected west to east orientation to the storms, some locally heavy rainfall amounts of 1"-3" may occur. This probably won't be enough to lead to flooding outside of short term urban and poor drainage street flooding. Where this may become impactful is during the Tuesday morning commute, which could be the heart of the event, and flooded roadways could develop where storms are heaviest. No Flood Watch at this time, but if any areas overachieve on rainfall with round 1 this morning (ie. 1"-2" occurs), the round 2 event late tonight could lead to more than just nuisance street flooding. We will continue evaluating the threat. As for the severe weather threat, the risk is low simply because our region will be located well north of the surface warm front. The stable layer looks impenetrable except for perhaps extreme southern Lower Michigan near and south of I-94. An few damaging wind gusts could occur across that region given the orientation of the LLJ and the strength of the mid level jet. - Mainly Dry with Near Normal Temperatures Mid Week into the Weekend Limited concerns once we get beyond Tuesday in the 7 day forecast. The models have remained consistent in showing surface high pressure dominating most of the time from Tuesday night through Sunday. We therefore have a mainly dry forecast through that time frame. The upper pattern has the Great Lakes positioned in between a strong high in the Southwest U.S. and an upper low over portions of Eastern Canada. This places our region in a primarily zonal flow in between with no major systems of concern. The one difference we have seen in the models the last few days remains tonight with the operational GFS indicating a strong trough driving into the Great Lakes from the northwest late in the week. The GFS ensemble means do not support this idea and are closer to the ECWMF which hangs onto zonal flow. The deeper GFS appears to be the result of a phasing of waves over Central Canada. The operational GFS looks to continue to be an outlier. Therefore, we will maintain the mainly dry / quiet weather. As for temperatures, both the operational GFS and ECMWF show lower teens C 850mb temperatures which will result in near normal temperatures in the upper 70s to around 80 degrees for highs && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 759 AM EDT Mon Aug 5 2024 Showers and thunderstorms will slide east through most of the TAF sites this morning. The exception being KGRR and KMKG which may be on the northern fringes of the activity. The showers and storms will work through between 12Z and 18Z with a lull in the afternoon and evening. Conditions will mainly be VFR, but there will be some periods of MVFR/IFR as the storms move through. Another round of more widespread showers and storms are expected overnight between 06Z and 12Z. At this point have covered much of the activity with VCSH and VCTS wording given the time range of tonight's convection and the scattered nature of the current activity. && .MARINE... Issued at 331 AM EDT Mon Aug 5 2024 Conditions will likely stay shy of SCA criteria through Tuesday, but Big/Little Sable Points as well as south of Holland bear watching this afternoon into Tuesday with solid 2 to 3 footers likely. NE winds turn more easterly for Tuesday, and some sustained winds of 20 kts or slightly greater are possible. && .GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...None. MARINE...None. && DISCUSSION...Duke/Hoving AVIATION...Duke MARINE...Hoving
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 605 AM EDT Mon Aug 5 2024 MIZ037>040-043>046-050>052-056>059-064>067-071>074-061015- Mason-Lake-Osceola-Clare-Oceana-Newaygo-Mecosta-Isabella-Muskegon- Montcalm-Gratiot-Ottawa-Kent-Ionia-Clinton-Allegan-Barry-Eaton- Ingham-Van Buren-Kalamazoo-Calhoun-Jackson- 605 AM EDT Mon Aug 5 2024 This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of southwest Lower Michigan. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight Some morning thunderstorms are possible mainly near and south of I-96. Locally heavy downpours and isolated gusty winds are possible. Thunderstorms are likely especially after midnight tonight, with 1" or more possible for many areas. Locally damaging wind gusts are also possible. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday Some thunderstorms are possible toward I-94 and locations southward. Locally damaging wind gusts are possible. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation may be needed late tonight into Tuesday. LMZ844>849-061015- St Joseph to South Haven MI-South Haven to Holland MI- Holland to Grand Haven MI-Grand Haven to Whitehall MI- Whitehall to Pentwater MI-Pentwater to Manistee MI- 605 AM EDT Mon Aug 5 2024 This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of southwest Lower Michigan. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight Thunderstorms with gusty winds and heavy downpours could occur both this morning and also late tonight. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday Thunderstorms with gusty winds and heavy downpours are possible mainly south of Holland on Tuesday. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation may be needed late tonight into Tuesday.
The Grand Rapids radar (KGRR), 80 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 12:31 UTC.
1 hail. Local standard time, as filed.
There was an isolated report of three quarters inch hail near South Haven.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Michigan in 2024Every state in 2024This day in weather historyWarnings in Michigan, August 2024
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1212821.