Alaska, 2024

Flood in Alaska, August 5 to 6, 2024

August 5 to 6, 2024 · NWS AJK · 1 event in 1 county or zone

Since 2011, Suicide Basin, a side valley that is dammed by the Mendenhall Glacier, fills with water from snowmelt and rainfall then drains during the summer as a glacial outburst flood. This year, the glacier dammed lake in Suicide Basin, like in 4 other years (2018, 2019, 2020 and 2023), was full to the top of the Mendenhall Glacier (top of the ice dam) and started to flow down a side drainage…

Where it happened

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The toll

Deaths
0
Injuries
0
Property damage
$6.7 million
Crop damage
None recorded
Events
1

Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.

What happened

The episode as NWS AJK wrote it up.

Since 2011, Suicide Basin, a side valley that is dammed by the Mendenhall Glacier, fills with water from snowmelt and rainfall then drains during the summer as a glacial outburst flood. This year, the glacier dammed lake in Suicide Basin, like in 4 other years (2018, 2019, 2020 and 2023), was full to the top of the Mendenhall Glacier (top of the ice dam) and started to flow down a side drainage channel on July 31st. After about 4 days, Suicide Basin began to drain sub-glacially as indicated by the USGS laser sensor by the increasing water level drop Sunday night into Monday August 5th. USGS Mendenhall Lake gauge started to rise from the additional water from the basin early Monday morning August 5th and visual reports from the USGS webcam in the basin confirmed that the basin had started to drain. The Mendenhall Lake gauge steadily rose through Monday, then the rate of rise continued to increase exponentially as the inflow to the lake from Suicide Basin was getting larger. Over the course of this glacier dam outburst flooding event, Mendenhall Lake and River rose an impressive eleven feet over less than two days. This event broke all previous records, even last years record event by one foot, and caused significant impacts. This flooding event was historic due to areas seeing flooding that had never flooded before and impacting around 300 residents. There were moderate to major flooding impacts in the Mendenhall Valley, where a majority of Juneau’s population resides, and historically does not flood.

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Juneau, AK wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Aug 5, 4:23 AM AKST, 4 hours 37 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Aug 5, 4:23 AM AKST, 4 hours 37 minutes before
Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
523 AM AKDT Mon Aug 5 2024

.SHORT TERM.../Through Tonight/...High pressure continues to
to be in place across the eastern Gulf and Panhandle with the
axis slowly shifting eastward through the short-range. As
subsidence aloft continues to breathe life into the marine layer
along and offshore, unseasonably warm temperatures will impact the
remainder of the area, with high temperatures reaching up into
the 80s today. Marine and land SFC winds will remain generally
benign through the period with sea and land breezes occurring.

While we will likely not reach Red Flag criteria at sea level due
to RH values primarily staying above 25%, the aforementioned warm
temperatures will dry out some of the finer fuels, marginally
increasing the chances of small fires down in the southern
Panhandle as time progresses.

.LONG TERM...
Quick hits:
-High pressure over the gulf will bring a period of dry and sunny
 weather that will last well into the week.
-Well above normal temps are expected, with highs in the 70s to
 low 80s.
-Potential marine layer would keep temps cooler for those folks
 along the coast.

Details:
Expected 500mb ridge and associated surface high pressure all
points to a sunny and warm, dare I say hot, start to the week.
Sunny skis are expected for most, especially for the inner
channels. The uncertainty in the cloud forecast is mainly
contained to folks along the coast, where a marine layer may
develop, which would give clouds and the possibility of drizzle.
If the marine layer moves closer to the NE coast, the next
question would be how far inland it will creep. Stay tuned for
updates on that part of the forecast. For now, still going with
sunny skies around the inner channels.

850mb temps warm to 10C to 15C, which translates to surface temps in
the 70s to low 80s. Warmest temps in the south, south of Sumner
Strait, and the far north, the Northern Lynn Canal area. As of now,
Monday and Tuesday are looking to be the warmest days. Afterwards,
the ridge breaks down and temps cool. That being said, long range
computer models usually break the ridge down too quickly, so any
changes to the long range forecast would be to extend the warmth and
sunshine.

&&

.AVIATION...Predominate VFR flight conditions across the
panhandle outside of some isolated IFR vsbys and cigs around PAYA
this morning. Conditions will improve for PAYA through the early
afternoon with the panhandle going and remaining VFR flight
conditions under mostly clear skies through the rest of the
period. Winds should remain around 10kts or less through today,
outside some elevated sea breezes during the late morning and
afternoon time.

&&

.HYDROLOGY.../Through Early Tuesday Morning/...A Flood Warning
remains in effect for the Mendenhall River due to the Suicide
Basin releasing sub-glacially. The Mendenhall River is currently
at 7.6 ft and will continue to rise into early Tuesday morning as
water continues to drain from the basin. We are forecasting a
near total drainage of water volume with a forecasted near-record
crest of around 15 ft early Tuesday morning. Impacts will increase
into early Tuesday morning with water levels going over minor
flood stage later this morning, moderate flood stage by this
afternoon, and major flood stage by tonight. The forecast crest
and impacts look to be similar to the 2023 event.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

SHORT TERM...JLC
LONG TERM....GJS
AVIATION...NM

Visit us at http://www.weather.gov/Juneau

The radar

The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.

Open the radar archive at this moment

Event by event

1 flood. Local standard time, as filed.

Flood, Juneau Borough

When
August 5, 9:00 AM AKST to August 6, 1:00 PM AKST
Where
Juneau Borough County, 0.39 mi NNE of Mendenhall Valley to 0.6 mi NNE of Mendenhall Valley
Cause
Dam / Levee Break
Property damage
$6.7 million
Reported by
River/Stream Gage
Coordinates
58.376, -134.588

The level of Mendenhall Lake was slightly below normal levels of 5.0 feet before this event started in the early morning hours of Sunday August 4th. Twenty four hours into the flooding event, by noon on Monday, water levels had risen 5 feet and were over the moderate flood stage of 10 feet. By this time, areas near Skaters Cabin Rd and the Mendenhall Glacier Visitor Center were experiencing moderate flooding impacts with the USFS Mendenhall Lake Campground being evacuated. As water levels continued to rise, homes along View Drive were cut off with flood waters from 1 to 3 feet deep. Areas below the Mendenhall Back Loop Road bridge started to see flooding of yards between 12 and 13 feet but other locations that saw flooding during last years major event when the river level was near 13 to 13.5 feet did not see flooding at that level due to storm sewer one way values the City and Bough of Juneau installed prior to this event. Also the bank stabilization and armoring that residents installed on the right and left side of the river below the Mendenhall Back Loop Road bridge after last years event remained in tact and protected those residences from flooding/erosion impacts.

From Monday morning to the crest early Tuesday morning, the rate of rise on the river was around 0.4 FT per hour. The rate of rise was faster this year than last year, which could be due to a more efficient subglacial conduit drainage system, primed by a previous atmospheric river. The river continued to rise on this fast pace through the Monday evening hours and reached major flood stage of 14 feet at 2015AKST, when most of the flooding of homes and roads below the Mendenhall Back Loop bridge started to take place. By 2245AKST on August 5th the Mendenhall River went over the previous record stage set last year of 14.97 feet. The river would rise for another 3 and a half hours and crested at a new record crest of 15.99 feet (preliminary crest from the USGS) at 0315AKST on August 6th. The Mendenhall Lake and River were back below minor flood stage of 9.0 feet by noon on Tuesday, August 6th. The river system was above flood stage for 28 hours.

Through an extensive storm survey, it was determined that water came over the banks of the Mendenhall River along Marion Dr, Riverside Dr, Killewich Rd and Meander Way and produced major flooding to homes west of Riverside Drive and made roads impassable during the peak of the event. The local electric company cut power to those residences due to the flood waters. The amount of water that flowed over Killewich Drive was much higher than last year, causing water to move like a strong river down Riverside Drive and Killewich Dr into Emily Way, Sharon Street, Gee Street, Long Run, and Northland St - areas that had not seen such flooding before. Residents in those areas saw water not just coming from the river to the west, but also from the north, as water made its way through the community from the breach at Killewich Dr. These flood waters produced major impacts, with 1 to 4 FT of water in homes, causing significant damage. There were some areas that reported as much as 6 feet of water in their homes. As the floodwaters moved through homes west of Riverside Drive, the water flowed down Rivercourt Way and returned to the Mendenhall River. After the Mendenhall River breached the banks around Marion Drive, Riverside Drive, Killewich Drive, and Meander Way, water entered the storm sewer drains but could not flow into the Mendenhall River due to the high velocity and pressure from the flood flow. This caused water pressure to build up in the storm sewer system, leading to flooding in areas around the Mendenhall Valley Library and other nearby locations as water emerged from manhole covers. This also occurred near the back of the Safeway by the Mendenhall River at Brotherhood Bridge.

There were changes to the sections of the river above the Back Loop Bridge along View Drive after last years record event which was able to hold more water within its banks. This area did not see moderate flooding impacts until the Mendenhall Lake gauge read above 11.5 feet. This was due to large amounts of river scouring from last year's event. Even through there was major flooding along View Dr, the events high water marks along the south side of View Drive were about 6 inches lower than last year (which saved one house from flood damage). Meanwhile, residents on the north side of View Drive experienced more water flowing across their property, causing increased road and home damage with reports of 4 to 7 feet of water in homes and other erosion issues.

In the end, there were about 300 homes majorly affected from this significant flood. This was another historic event as it was the second year in a row there was major flooding impacts to an area that historically has not seen any flooding. The area affected this year expanded from last year due and increase of water released from Suicide Basin in a single event. This year, there was approximately 16 billion gallons of water that came out of the basin and into the Mendenhall Lake and River system which was 2 billion more than last year.

What these are

Flood
Flooding that develops more slowly than a flash flood: rivers leaving their banks, or water standing over land for an extended time.

After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.

The same day elsewhere

More

Every storm in Alaska in 2024Every state in 2024This day in weather historyWarnings in Alaska, August 2024

Sources

NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1210851.