Surface low pressure was drifting across the Quad State on the 14th. Showers and thunderstorms developed in the afternoon to evening with Western Kentucky seeing storms drift slowly, pivoting eastward to northeastward.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS PAH wrote it up.
Surface low pressure was drifting across the Quad State on the 14th. Showers and thunderstorms developed in the afternoon to evening with Western Kentucky seeing storms drift slowly, pivoting eastward to northeastward. CAPE values around 1000 J/kg dropped off after sunset. Lapse rates were around 6.5 C/km, and shear was limited to around 25 kts. A few of the storms became strong to severe with a tree falling onto a home near Eddyville and quarter size hail occurring on the south side of Princeton. Torrential rainfall of 3-5.5 inches fell in Henderson County, though flooding reports were confined to the western portions of the county. Flooding also occurred in Calloway County, with brief minor flooding in Christian County at the 68/80 Bypass site for the South Fork of the Little River.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Paducah, KY wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at May 14, 5:28 AM CST, 4 hours 32 minutes earlier. Its key messages:
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Paducah KY 628 AM CDT Tue May 14 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Showers and thunderstorms continue today; can't rule out a severe storm this afternoon. - Some lingering showers continue tonight into Wednesday, and then another system spreads additional showers and storms into the region Thursday through Friday. - Uncertainty exists regarding precip chances this weekend, but it's quite possible it ends up completely dry. - Temperatures will start off near to slightly below normal the next couple of days, then warm above normal this weekend as highs reach the mid 80s. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 244 AM CDT Tue May 14 2024 A surface low is currently located over north central Arkansas with convection located out ahead of it across southeast Missouri. This activity will pivot northeast across the rest of the region through early-mid morning. Weak instability should largely hinder the severe concern, but training of convection may lead to a localized flash flooding concern. Some areas have already received 1-2" and could see some additional 2-3" swaths occurring through sunrise. An upper low over western Missouri will slowly churn eastward today, providing forcing for additional convection to occur this afternoon. Stronger wind fields aloft will depart to the southeast, but 25 kts of 0-6 km shear may still be realized especially across the east half of the area. This combined with 1000-1500 j/kg of MLCAPE and decent mid-level lapse rates of 6.5 C/km may support a few strong to severe storms developing. SPC has the east half of the area in a Day 1 marginal which seems reasonable. More likely to see small hail or gusty winds with a few of the stronger storms, but can't rule out something a bit perkier. Also may end up with a few cold air funnel sightings. The convection should decrease fairly quickly this evening with loss of daytime heating. The cyclonic flow around the upper low may lead to additional isolated showers on Wednesday, mainly east of the Mississippi River. We won't see much break in between systems as mid-level energy ejects across the Plains and into the Ozarks by Wednesday night. This may lead to a decaying MCS of sorts that could potentially reach our western counties by 12z Thursday. Additional showers and storms are then expected to develop Thursday afternoon and evening, and continue off and on through Friday night. Can't rule out a few strong storms on Thursday (if the 00z NAM is correct it'd be more concerning). 0-6km shear looks to be at least 30-35 kts and somewhat decent instability is expected to develop by afternoon. SPC currently has portions of our area in a marginal risk for severe which is hard to argue against at this time. Ensemble members are all over the place for this weekend, but the majority seem to favor a mainly dry period as the trough responsible for the late week rains shifts southeast of our cwa. Of course, the GFS offers up a much slower evolution of the trough that actually ends up with another upper low moving across our cwa on Saturday and keeping us unsettled. For now see no reason to stray from the low PoPs the NBM has in, but would tend to lean toward a drier weekend being realized. Our unsettled weather pattern could continue through much of next week, but ensemble data is all over the place. There is higher confidence in above normal temperatures than day to day precip chances at this point. Looks like highs in the 80s may be on the table much of the week. Wouldn't be surprised to see one or two days close to 90. It also may be quite muggy with dewpoints well into the 60s and possibly exceeding 70 at times. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 620 AM CDT Tue May 14 2024 Scattered to numerous SHRA will continue through the day. TSRA most likely across west Kentucky and southwest Indiana this morning, then across the entire region this afternoon into early evening. Coverage should dwindle quickly after sunset. Cigs are a bit variable, but should predominately be in the IFR or low MVFR range this morning before some gradual improvement this afternoon. Guidance hints at cigs lifting to VFR levels at least across the south half of the area later this afternoon and evening before tanking again tonight. && .PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None. && DISCUSSION...SP AVIATION...SP
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Paducah KY 335 AM CDT Tue May 14 2024 ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087- 100-107>112-114-150845- Jefferson-Wayne IL-Edwards-Wabash-Perry IL-Franklin-Hamilton- White-Jackson-Williamson-Saline-Gallatin-Union-Johnson-Pope- Hardin-Alexander-Pulaski-Massac-Gibson-Pike-Posey-Vanderburgh- Warrick-Spencer-Fulton-Hickman-Carlisle-Ballard-McCracken-Graves- Livingston-Marshall-Calloway-Crittenden-Lyon-Trigg-Caldwell- Union KY-Webster-Hopkins-Christian-Henderson-Daviess-McLean- Muhlenberg-Todd-Perry MO-Bollinger-Cape Girardeau-Wayne MO-Carter- Ripley-Butler-Stoddard-Scott-Mississippi-New Madrid- 335 AM CDT Tue May 14 2024 /435 AM EDT Tue May 14 2024/ This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southern Illinois, southwest Indiana, western Kentucky, and southeast Missouri. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight Scattered thunderstorms are forecast today. The primary hazards will be small hail, gusty winds, brief heavy rain, and lightning. However, one or two storms could become severe with large hail or damaging winds. Localized flooding is also a concern with any training storms, particularly this morning. River flooding continues along several area rivers this week. Refer to the river flood products for additional details. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday Thunderstorm chances are in the forecast on Thursday and Friday. A few strong to severe storms are possible Thursday afternoon and evening. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation can't be completely ruled out this afternoon.
The Evansville,IN radar (KVWX), 48 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 15:57 UTC.
2 flood, 1 thunderstorm wind, 1 flash flood, 1 hail. Local standard time, as filed.
Flood waters rose around a few buildings in the Hwy 136 West area on the west side of the county.
A couple of trees were downed by thunderstorm winds, one falling onto a house in Eddyville.
Several inches of water running across KY 280 north of KY 121 South.
Hail was reported near Princeton as a thunderstorm progressed eastward, with penny size hail near the Princeton Golf Club and quarter size hail on the south side of Princeton. A 56 mph wind gust was observed at the Mesonet station PRNC Princeton KY 2 SE.
Heavy rain in Christian County from the May 14th storms resulted in rapid river level rises on the South Fork of the Little River with minor flooding occurring during the early evening hours of the 14th near the 68/80 site. Farmland flooding and some street flooding of nearby roads briefly occurred.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Kentucky in 2024Every state in 2024This day in weather historyWarnings in Kentucky, May 2024
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1182199, 1182190, 1182122, 1182181, 1181520.