Drought in Kansas, February 1 to 29, 2024

Name: Drought in Kansas, February 1 to 29, 2024
Start: 2024-02-01T00:00
End: 2024-02-29T23:59
Location: Kansas

February 1 to 29, 2024 · NWS GID · 6 events in 6 counties and zones

Where it happened

Every event with a place to put it; 6 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.

Tornadoes
Tropical storms and surge
Floods
Wind
Hail
Winter weather
Heat and drought
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Fire, smoke and dust
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The toll

Deaths: 0
Injuries: 0
Property damage: None recorded
Crop damage: None recorded
Events: 6

Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.

What happened

The episode as NWS GID wrote it up.

February 2024 marked the third-consecutive month with widespread above normal precipitation within North Central Kansas, allowing a slow-but-steady improvement in drought conditions to march onward. Nonetheless, at least small sections of five of the six local counties spent the entire month assigned Severe Drought (D2) by the U.S. Drought Monitor, while a small part of a sixth county (Phillips) began the month with D2 before it was removed on the Feb. 13th USDM issuance. In fact, February marked the 25th-consecutive month with D2 afflicting portions of the local area. But focusing on the positive, the biggest news of the month was the removal of Extreme Drought (D3) from western Rooks County on the Feb. 13th USDM...marking the first time in ten months that the entire six-county domain was void of D3. In addition to the D3 removal, February featured a modest reduction in the areal coverage of D2, but also a fairly significant decrease in Moderate Drought (D1) and even a slight increase in places deemed to be void of all drought categories whatsoever. These encouraging trends were spurred on by above normal monthly precipitation across nearly 95 percent of the area...mainly in the form of rain and not snow (see below for more detailed monthly precipitation info). Focusing on February county-level drought category specifics, the month opened with the breakdown as follows: 1) D3 prevailed within parts of the western half of Rooks County (but only constituted around 5% of the total six-county domain)...2) A few splotches of D2 nicked at least small portions of all six counties (but only comprised around 10% of the total area)...3) D1 blanketed roughly 63% of North Central Kansas, including the vast majority of Jewell, Osborne and Mitchell counties...4) the remaining roughly 22% of the area (almost entirely within Phillips/Smith counties) consisted of a varied mix of D0 and locations deemed void of all drought whatsoever (D-nothing). As the month kicked into gear, it turned out that all improvements (including widespread 1-category and limited 2-category) occurred during the first two USDM issuances of February, with status quo holding firm through the latter half of the month. These early-February improvements were highlighted by: 1) a swath of 2-category improvement (from D3 to D1) over west-central Rooks County...2) a significant reduction in the coverage of D1. In the wake of these welcomed changes, the end-of-month drought category situation stood as follows: 1) A few tiny pockets of D2 lingered within parts of all local counties except Phillips (but constituted merely around 5% of the six-county area)...2) D1 blanketed roughly 44% of North Central Kansas, including the majority of Jewel, Mitchell and Rooks counties...3) D0 covered roughly 41% of the area, including the majority of Smith and Osborne counties...4) the remaining approximately 10% of the area (entirely within northern Phillips/Smith counties) was assigned drought-free D-nothing.

Turning to February 2024 precipitation details, it was overall excellent news for the third-straight month, as roughly 95% of North Central Kansas tallied at least slightly above normal precipitation (meaning more than roughly 0.82), and around 80% of the area checked in between 140-205% of normal. The overall-wettest areas (greatest concentration of totals around 1.50 or more) resided within the four western-most local counties, while slightly lower (but still mainly above normal amounts) focused within Jewell/Mitchell counties in the east. Per around 30 NWS and CoCoRaHS observers, some of the very-highest monthly totals featured: 2.58 near Damar, 2.05 in Natoma, 1.71 near Plainville and 1.62 at Webster Dam. In fact, the NWS observer near Plainville recorded its 12th-wettest February on record out of 116, and the wettest since 2001. Meanwhile, a few of the lowest (but still near-normal) February precipitation totals included: 0.70 near Scottsville, 0.71 ten miles south-southwest of Beloit and 0.75 in Cawker City. On one final note, despite sites such as the NWS Cooperative Observer in Beloit notching above normal precipitation for the fourth-straight month, long-term deficits remained intact, as Beloit totaled only 60.93 over the 35-month stretch from April 2021-February 2024...24.86 below normal/71% of normal.

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Hastings, NE wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jan 31, 11:47 PM CST, 13 minutes earlier. Its key messages:

Today has been the warmest day of the forecast period with high temperatures in the 50s and 60s.
Rain is possible Friday afternoon through Sunday night with the highest chances (50% to near 100%) on Saturday.
Flooding and ice jam concerns increase this weekend with the rainfall.
There is high confidence (at least 80%) of widespread rainfall amounts of at least a half an inch this weekend.
The areas of heaviest rainfall are uncertain at this point as well as rainfall amounts.

Area forecast discussion, Jan 31, 11:47 PM CST, 13 minutes before

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1147 PM CST Wed Jan 31 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Today has been the warmest day of the forecast period with
  high temperatures in the 50s and 60s.

- Rain is possible Friday afternoon through Sunday night with
  the highest chances (50% to near 100%) on Saturday.

- Flooding and ice jam concerns increase this weekend with the
  rainfall.

- There is high confidence (at least 80%) of widespread rainfall
  amounts of at least a half an inch this weekend.

- The areas of heaviest rainfall are uncertain at this point as
  well as rainfall amounts.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 257 PM CST Wed Jan 31 2024

Today through Friday...

An upper level ridge is over the southern and central plains with an
upper low near the Four Corners Region. Surface winds are mostly out
of the south to southwest across south central and central Nebraska
and north central Kansas. Mostly sunny skies are across the area
with temperatures expected to range from the lower 50s to upper 60s.
Temperatures today are expected to be the warmest of the forecast
period with the upper low moving closer to the region on Thursday.
Low temperatures tonight will range from the mid 20s to lower 40s
with partly to mostly cloudy skies. High temperatures on Thursday
will generally range from the upper 40s to mid 60s. Low temperatures
Thursday night will be fairly similar to those the previous night.
Troughing will dominate the western half of the country on Friday
with Nebraska and Kansas on the eastern edge of the trough.
Temperatures Friday will decrease some from the previous day with
highs ranging from the mid 40s to near 60. Rain chances (15% to 25%)
start Friday afternoon.

Friday night through Sunday night...

Rain chances (near 25% to near 90%) will increase Friday night as
the upper trough and associated lift move over the area. Mid-level
lapse rates will be higher across southern portions of the forecast
area which will allow for the possibility of thunderstorms (around
20%) Friday night into Saturday. Lift from the upper trough will
continue to move over the area on Saturday along with east to
southeast surface winds which will bring in increased low-level
moisture. Models are in fairly good agreement in bringing in at
least moderate rainfall across south central and central Nebraska
and north central Kansas on Saturday. Some areas could experience
heavy rainfall at times. Flooding and ice jam concerns increase
Saturday due to the ground still expected to be partly frozen and
some ice still in local rivers. The recent warm temperatures will
help to alleviate some of this concern. The uncertainty is if the
amount of rainfall will be too much for the portion of the ground
that is thawed and for the rivers which will still have some ice in
them. High temperatures on Saturday are expected to mainly be in the
50s. Rain will continue into Saturday night with lows in the upper
30s to mid 40s. Sunday may see a decrease in the intensity of the
rainfall but rain is still expected. The upper trough/low will
strengthen over the southeastern part of the country with winds
turning towards the northeast across Nebraska and Kansas. High
temperatures on Sunday are expected to mostly be in the 40s. The
rain is expected to come to an end Sunday night with lows in
the 30s. The areas of heaviest rainfall are uncertain at this
point as well as rainfall amounts. There is high confidence (at
least 80%) of widespread rainfall amounts of at least a half
inch. There is moderate confidence (40% to 60%) of some areas
receiving at least an inch of rainfall.

Monday through next Wednesday...

High temperatures on Monday will be in the upper 40s to low 50s with
mostly upper ridging over the region. Low temperatures Monday night
will be in the upper 20s to lower 30s. A slight warmup is expected
for Tuesday with southerly winds returning to the area and highs
mostly in the 50s. Temperatures are expected to range from the lower
30s to mid 30s Tuesday night. Another upper trough may begin to
impact the region next Wednesday which may bring more rain to the
area. This rain, if it occurs, is not expected to be nearly as heavy
as the last system. High temperatures in the 50s are expected next
Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1130 PM CST Wed Jan 31 2024

VFR Conditions expected through Thursday afternoon, before fog
and low stratus moves into the area Wednesday evening, bringing
IFR conditions. Fog is expected to move into the area after 00z,
with visibilities reduced 1/2 mile in fog. Ceilings will also
lower with the arrival of fog/low stratus, with ceilings
lowering to IFR. Winds will become light and variable during the
early morning hours, with ENE winds expected from the late
morning hours through the end of the TAF period.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 610 PM CST Wed Jan 31 2024

Several daily records for mainly warm low/minimum temperature
and MAYBE one daily precipitation record are possible at Grand
Island/Hastings airports in the upcoming days (the two sites for
which we issue official Record Event Reports...RERGRI/RERHSI).

Please keep in mind that for record warm lows to become OFFICIAL
they need to "survive" the entire midnight-to-midnight CST
calendar day. Possible records that appear most threatened follow:

- Grand Island airport (GRI) possible warmest low temp records:
Feb. 3 (Sat): forecast 43...current record 37 in 1909
Feb. 4 (Sun): forecast 39 at midnight...current record 36 in 1927
Feb. 5 (Mon): forecast 35...current record 35 in 2005

- Hastings airport (HSI) possible warmest low temp records:
Feb. 2 (Fri): forecast 37...current record 36 in 1934
Feb. 3 (Sat): forecast 44...current record 37 in 1962
Feb. 4 (Sun): forecast 38 at midnight...current record 36 in 1991/1954
Feb. 5 (Mon): forecast 34...current record 35 in 2005/1954

- Hastings airport (HSI) possible daily precipitation record:
Feb. 3 (Sat): forecast 0.63"...current record 0.78" in 2012

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

DISCUSSION...Schuldt
AVIATION...Davis
CLIMATE...Pfannkuch

Hazardous weather outlook, Jan 31, 6:47 PM CST, 5 hours 13 minutes before

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Hastings NE
647 PM CST Wed Jan 31 2024

NEZ039>041-046>049-020100-
Valley-Greeley-Nance-Sherman-Howard-Merrick-Polk-
647 PM CST Wed Jan 31 2024

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Nebraska counties
north of Interstate 80.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Very late tonight into Thursday morning, at least patchy fog
could develop in parts of the area. Should any fog develop, dense
fog reducing visibility to 1/4 mile is possible, but should not
be widespread in coverage.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Through mid-morning Thursday, at least patchy fog cannot be ruled
out in parts of the area. Should any fog occur, dense fog
reducing visibility to 1/4 mile is possible, but should not be
widespread in coverage.

Friday night through Saturday night, a few, non-severe
thunderstorms will be possible mainly near and south of the
Nebraska-Kansas border.

Heading into this weekend, a combination of factors including
runoff from melting snow, still partially frozen ground, and
perhaps as much as one-half inch to around 1 inch of rain, most
falling between Friday night and Sunday, could potentially cause
minor flooding in limited locations, particularly low-lying and
poor drainage areas. It is also possible that weekend rain could
combine with ongoing ice break-up on rivers to cause minor ice jam
flooding. If this were to occur, it would be most favored along
the Platte and Loup River basins in the Nebraska outlook area.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

&&

More information may be obtained at the following web page:
   https://www.weather.gov/hastings

KSZ005>007-017>019-NEZ060>064-072>077-082>087-020100-
Phillips-Smith-Jewell-Rooks-Osborne-Mitchell-Dawson-Buffalo-Hall-
Hamilton-York-Gosper-Phelps-Kearney-Adams-Clay-Fillmore-Furnas-
Harlan-Franklin-Webster-Nuckolls-Thayer-
647 PM CST Wed Jan 31 2024

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of north central
Kansas, along with south central Nebraska counties along and south
of Interstate 80.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Friday night through Saturday night, a few, non-severe
thunderstorms will be possible mainly near and south of the
Nebraska-Kansas border.

Heading into this weekend, a combination of factors including
runoff from melting snow, still partially frozen ground, and
perhaps as much as one-half inch to around 1 inch of rain, most
falling between Friday night and Sunday, could potentially cause
minor flooding in limited locations, particularly low-lying and
poor drainage areas. It is also possible that weekend rain could
combine with ongoing ice break-up on rivers to cause minor ice jam
flooding. If this were to occur, it would be most favored along
the Platte and Loup River basins in the Nebraska outlook area.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

&&

More information may be obtained at the following web page:
   https://www.weather.gov/hastings

Pfannkuch

The radar

The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.

Open the radar archive at this moment

Event by event

6 drought. Local standard time, as filed.

Drought, Rooks

When: February 1, 12:00 AM CST to February 29, 11:59 PM CST
Where: Rooks forecast zone
Reported by: Drought Monitor
Coordinates: 39.350, -99.325 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Drought, Smith

When: February 1, 12:00 AM CST to February 29, 11:59 PM CST
Where: Smith forecast zone
Reported by: Drought Monitor
Coordinates: 39.785, -98.785 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Drought, Osborne

When: February 1, 12:00 AM CST to February 29, 11:59 PM CST
Where: Osborne forecast zone
Reported by: Drought Monitor
Coordinates: 39.350, -98.768 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Drought, Jewell

When: February 1, 12:00 AM CST to February 29, 11:59 PM CST
Where: Jewell forecast zone
Reported by: Drought Monitor
Coordinates: 39.785, -98.218 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Drought, Mitchell

When: February 1, 12:00 AM CST to February 29, 11:59 PM CST
Where: Mitchell forecast zone
Reported by: Drought Monitor
Coordinates: 39.393, -98.209 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Drought, Phillips

When: February 1, 12:00 AM CST to February 12, 11:59 PM CST
Where: Phillips forecast zone
Reported by: Drought Monitor
Coordinates: 39.785, -99.347 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

What these are

Drought: A drought reaching severe (D2) or worse on the US Drought Monitor, or with notable impacts.

After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.

The same day elsewhere

Every storm in Kansas in 2024 Every state in 2024 This day in weather history Warnings in Kansas, February 2024

Sources

NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1157438, 1157439, 1157440, 1157441, 1157442, 1157443.