Heat in Kansas, August 24, 2024

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
628 AM CDT Sat Aug 24 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Heat Advisory this afternoon and Sunday afternoon for heat
  indices up to 109.

- Cooling trend through next week, with a strong cold front
  expected later in the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 200 AM CDT Sat Aug 24 2024

Showers and storms are developing along the nose of a
stout LLJ in north central Kansas this morning. This activity is
expected to continue pushing off to the east/northeast as the
morning continues, with coverage mainly confined to the north of
Interstate 70. Severe weather is not anticipated at this time.

The main headline this forecast period remains to be dangerous heat
later this afternoon and into Sunday afternoon. High temperatures in
central and south central Kansas will range from 100 to near 110,
while highs in the Flint Hills and east will remain in the middle to
upper 90s. A dryline is progged to mix its way into central Kansas
by the afternoon, so temperatures will be minimally enhanced by
dewpoints in the upper 50s and low 60s in this region. As this
dryline is not expected to make it to southeast Kansas, however,
dewpoints in the low to middle 70s will support heat indices ranging
from 105 to 110 degrees. As such, with widespread coverage of this
heat, a Heat Advisory is in effect this afternoon. The Heat Advisory
runs through Sunday as similar conditions will persist throughout
the area through the late afternoon hours.

The heat looks to slightly subside on Monday as the core of the
upper ridge shifts eastward. Afternoon highs in the middle 90s to
near 100 are forecast with the highest temperatures once again
remaining in southern Kansas. Temperatures will continue to trend
downward through the remainder of the week before a cold front
pushes through the state Thursday/Friday. This frontal passage still
looks to bring highs in the middle 80s for much of Kansas heading
into next weekend along with better chances for thunderstorm
activity.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 625 AM CDT Sat Aug 24 2024

Aviation concern will be storms for the next few hours.

Scattered showers and storms developed over southeast KS a few
hours ago in an area of strong 850-700mb moisture transport.
This activity is expected to continue through around 14z before
pushing east. So will run with VCTS at KCNU through around 14z.
Outside of these storms, VFR conditions are anticipated for the
remainder of this TAF period.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM CDT Sunday for KSZ032-
033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.

&&

DISCUSSION...JWK
AVIATION...RBL

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wichita KS
555 AM CDT Sat Aug 24 2024

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-250815-
Russell-Lincoln-Barton-Ellsworth-Saline-Rice-McPherson-Marion-Chase-
Reno-Harvey-Butler-Greenwood-Woodson-Allen-Kingman-Sedgwick-Harper-
Sumner-Cowley-Elk-Wilson-Neosho-Chautauqua-Montgomery-Labette-
555 AM CDT Sat Aug 24 2024

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of Central Kansas,
South Central Kansas and Southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

A few storms will be possible this morning across southeast Kansas.
Severe storms are not expected with this activity.

Heat indices up to 109 degrees are expected this afternoon. Refer
to the Heat Advisory for additional information.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

Heat indices up to 109 degrees are expected Sunday afternoon. Refer
to the Heat Advisory for additional information.

Heat indices near 100 degrees are expected on Monday.

Periodic chances for isolated to scattered showers and storms are
possible next week. Organized severe weather or widespread heavy
rainfall are not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated today or tonight.

&&

For a graphical version of this information, see our webpage at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=ict