A lingering surface front across NE FL and a coastal low offshore produced bands of training heavy rainfall along the local coast. Convection developed across inland areas in the afternoon with diurnal heating.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS JAX wrote it up.
A lingering surface front across NE FL and a coastal low offshore produced bands of training heavy rainfall along the local coast. Convection developed across inland areas in the afternoon with diurnal heating.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Jacksonville, FL wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Aug 24, 8:26 PM EST, 2 hours 34 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
926 PM EDT Sat Aug 24 2024
...New UPDATE...
.UPDATE...
Issued at 917 PM EDT Sat Aug 24 2024
For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf
Low stratus and showers with occasional embedded thunder will
continue to pinwheel onshore, mainly for coastal areas north of
Saint Augustine, through the rest of the night. A flood watch
remains in effect at this time for Duval/Nassau/Camden/Glynn
Counties. Although not anticipating magnitude of coverage and
impacts to those seen Friday Night, some locally heavier rainfall
in some cells could result in minor flooding in these very
saturated areas. Otherwise, most of the forecast remains on track
with lows in the mid to upper 70s by the coast, and upper 70s
inland with a few spots in the 60s possible over far interior
southeast GA.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Sunday through Monday night)
Issued at 253 PM EDT Sat Aug 24 2024
Closed upper trough will depart further away from the region into
the TX Gulf coast as a trough digs SSE from New England into the
western Atlantic waters with ridging aloft behind it from the
Great Lakes and Oh valley. This will keep surface high pressure
over the central Appalachians and Mid Atlantic states while the
weak low remains over the coastal waters. Onshore NE winds will
deliver coastal showers with diurnal heating sparking develop
inland, but lack of spin and upper level energy should lead to
overall lower coverage of showers and T'storm Monday across NE FL
and coastal SE GA compared to Sunday with only scattered showers
and T'storms over interior SE GA each day.
Highs will be near to a bit below normal Sunday thanks to mostly
cloudy skies and numerous showers generally east of highway 301,
while a bit warmer near I-75, then warm to near normal values
Monday as some drier air allows for more sunshine and lower
coverage of showers and T'storms. Lows will be in the lower 70s
inland and the mid/upper 70s along the coast.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through next Saturday)
Issued at 253 PM EDT Sat Aug 24 2024
Mid to upper level ridging will shift from the OH valley into the
TN river valley Tuesday into Wednesday. This will serve to press
the stalled frontal boundary southward along the FL peninsula and
bring drier air (PWATS under 1.5 inches) and subsidence into SE GA
and far inland NE FL with scattered coastal showers moving onshore
overnight and in the morning with afternoon diurnal instability
inland and a progressing Atlantic seabreeze focusing scattered to
numerous showers and T'storms along and west of highway 301 into
the I-75 corridor of NE FL.
Thursday into next weekend, ridging aloft will sink south into
the coastal SE and then eastward towards Bermuda, with below
average moisture levels until Saturday when a weak upper level
wave moves NW across the FL peninsula from the Bahamas with higher
coverage of showers returning this weekend. For the week, the
pattern will limit coverage of showers and T'storms to isolated
over much of SE GA (staying mainly dry NW of Waycross) and
scattered primarily during the afternoon hours from diurnal
instability and the Atlantic seabreeze pushing well inland. Winds
will turn more easterly through the end of the week and lighten to
5-10 mph inland and 10-15 coast as the pressure gradient loosens
during the period and the high just to our north moves east and
reforms near Bermuda.
High temperatures will be near normal through the period along
the coast to around 90 and rise to above normal levels into the
low to mid 90s inland through the end of the week. Lows will
remain a few degrees above normal in the mid to upper 70s along
the coast and near normal in the low 70s inland due to drier air.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 730 PM EDT Sat Aug 24 2024
Coastal showers will persist at times through most of the night
beneath a front that continues to wobble slightly north/south
across the area. Guidance remains persistent in at least MVFR
ceilings to develop tonight and overnight beneath the front.
Confidence is high enough to include prevailing IFR overnight and towards
sunrise at SSI/VQQ/GNV, with TEMPO IFR at JAX/CRG - though
prevailing IFR remains quite possible at these two sites overnight
and into early Sunday Morning. IFR conditions are expected to
remain north of SGJ at this time, though MVFR is likely at times
and IFR cannot be fully ruled out.
IFR is expected to break by late Sunday Morning, though pockets of
MVFR are likely to continue. At least SHRA will be likely at all
sites again Sunday, though left out TSRA mention at this time as confidence
is not high enough with respect to extent of coverage across the
area given similar setup to Saturday.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 253 PM EDT Sat Aug 24 2024
Separated the SE GA coastal waters for this afternoon where gradient
winds were still near 15 kts sustained, with 17 kts at buoy 41008
and gusts of 21 kts. A stationary front will linger over the
local northeast Florida waters this weekend as high pressure
positions over the Mid- Atlantic region. Scattered to numerous
showers and embedded thunderstorms will periodically impact our
local waters as onshore winds prevail. The front will gradually
dissipate early next week and shift southward as high pressure
settles over the southeastern region. This pattern transition will
gradually decrease in showers and thunderstorms across our local
waters and return a more typical east coast sea breeze regime.
Rip Currents: Moderate rip current risk today and Sunday as NNE to
ENE winds continue over the local waters.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 253 PM EDT Sat Aug 24 2024
A Flood watch is in effect through Sunday evening for the coastal
locations from Jacksonville northward to Brunswick where up to 5-7
inches of rain has fallen in the past 3 days. Another 1-3 inches
of rainfall is expected this weekend with locally heavier amounts
possible. Flooding may occur in low-lying and flood prone
locations including poor drainage and urban locations.
Coastal Flood: Onshore flow and last of Full Moon effects will
continue above normal water levels along the Atlantic Coast and
St. Johns River Basin during times of high tide, but still
expected to remain below Minor Flood levels this weekend.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG 86 69 88 71 / MMM 10 40 30
SSI 83 76 87 78 / MMM 40 60 40
JAX 84 74 87 75 / MMM 40 60 20
SGJ 85 76 89 77 / MMM 20 50 20
GNV 88 72 90 73 / MMM 20 60 20
OCF 90 73 92 75 / MMM 30 60 20
&&
.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Flood Watch through Sunday evening for FLZ024-124-125-225-325-
425.
GA...Flood Watch through Sunday evening for GAZ153-154-165-166.
AM...None.
&&Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
728 PM EDT Sat Aug 24 2024
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0705 PM Flood 3 WSW Anthony 29.27N 82.15W
08/24/2024 Marion FL Trained Spotter
Minor street flooding near Northwest 83rd
Place and Northwest 15th Avenue. Radar
estimates show about 1 to 2 inches in the
past hour.
&&The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
7 heavy rain. Local standard time, as filed.
Since midnight, Craig Executive Airport | measured 3.06 inches of rainfall. Other | public observations nearby measured 3 to 4 | inches.
The public measured 3.99 inches of rainfall | since 3 am this morning. This location was | along Derringer Road, just north of Craig | Airfield in Arlington.
A public weather station along Creekview | Drive just north of Craig Airfield has | measured 4.23 inches since 3 am.
A public weather station along | Creekview Drive just north of Craig Airfield | measured 4.42 inches since 3 am through | about 915 am.
A public weather station along Caroline Vail | Blvd measured 3.01 inches of rainfall since | about 3:30 am.
A personal weather station along Shell Beach | Trail in Arlington measured 3.79 inches of | rain since about 4 am.
A personal weather station along | Shell Beach Trail in Arlington measured 3.81 | inches of rain since about 4 am through 8:30 | am.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Florida in 2024Every state in 2024This day in weather historyWarnings in Florida, August 2024
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1203882, 1203883, 1203885, 1203887, 1203886, 1203884, 1203888.