A surface low meandered offshore of the NE FL coastal along a stalled front. Passing upper-level short wave trough energy, high moisture and slow storm motion produced locally heavy rainfall and pulse strong storms with wet downbursts in resultant storms.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS JAX wrote it up.
A surface low meandered offshore of the NE FL coastal along a stalled front. Passing upper-level short wave trough energy, high moisture and slow storm motion produced locally heavy rainfall and pulse strong storms with wet downbursts in resultant storms. Storms impacted coastal areas in the morning, then with diurnal heating shift inland.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Jacksonville, FL wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Aug 23, 7:18 PM EST, 4 hours 42 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
818 PM EDT Fri Aug 23 2024
...New AVIATION...
For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 819 PM EDT Fri Aug 23 2024
Occasional showers will be possible overnight at SSI, with periods
of MVFR ceilings possible. A higher chance of showers and possibly
an embedded thunderstorm is expected at SSI after 09Z Saturday.
Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected the northeast FL terminals
through at least 05Z. MVFR ceilings are likely to develop during
the predawn and early morning hours on Saturday, and a brief
period of IFR ceilings cannot be ruled out. However, confidence
remains too low to indicate IFR ceilings in the 00Z TAFs. TEMPO
groups for ceilings of 1,000-2,000 feet were placed in the TAFS
through the early morning hours on Saturday. Showers and
thunderstorms will begin developing near the regional terminals
after 15Z, and PROB30 groups for briefly gusty winds and MVFR
visibilities during heavier downpours were placed in the terminals
during the afternoon hours. Northeasterly surface winds sustained
at 5 knots or less are expected overnight, with speeds then
increasing to around 10 knots outside of thunderstorm activity
after 14Z.
&&
.NEAR TERM...
Issued at 213 PM EDT Fri Aug 23 2024
The mesolow from earlier today off the coastline of the FL/GA
border has "flattened out" a bit into more of a frontal wave,
though the wave continues to stream showers and some embedded
thunder into those same areas. Diurnal heating is also starting to
pop convection over interior northeast FL, which should continue
through the evening. The amount of dry air north of the front over
interior southeast GA will be too much for any convection to get
going over that area. The GA coastline and along/south of I-10
will be the main focus area for showers and thunderstorms this
afternoon and evening where the best moisture and convergence will
be located. Temperatures aloft are also quite cool, in the -7 to
-9C range at 500mb, which combined with the usual summer
instability could once again result in some strong to isolated
severe storms with gusts in the 40-60mph range. Slow storm
movement will be overall slow once again, and therefore localized
flooding will be the other main hazard. Temperatures will range
from low 80s over coastal GA to mid to upper 80s south and west.
Tonight, the onshore flow and frontal boundary in the region will
once again keep chances for showers and isolated thunderstorms in
the forecast for much of the coastal areas, where lows will be
generally in the mid to upper 70s. Inland, low 70s and some upper
60s over far interior southeast GA.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Saturday through Sunday night)
Issued at 213 PM EDT Fri Aug 23 2024
Above normal daily shower and thunderstorm activity is expected to
continue for coastal SE GA and much of NE FL as a surface front
wavers across north-central FL, with broad surface lows forming
just offshore of the local Atlantic seaboard bringing periods of
rainfall inland. Above the surface, deep layer moisture with
precipitable water 2 inches+ will continue to stream over NE FL
and coastal SE GA, while drier air gradually begins to funnel
southward across SE GA as an upper ridge builds NNW of the region.
This high and drier air will limit rain chances for inland SE GA
especially north of Waycross compared to coastal SE GA and NE FL.
Onshore, easterly low level winds will bring morning showers and
isolated coastal storms inland through the morning, with diurnally
enhanced convection erupting across inland zones into the
afternoon and early evening. Steering flow will continue to be
very weak (< 10 kts) which will continue to promote locally heavy,
potentially flooding, rainfall under slow moving storms and in
periodic training cells. The potential for isolated strong to
pulse severe storms will decrease this weekend as mid level temps
warm as the persistent mid/upper level trough across the eastern
GOMEX retrogrades as high pressure builds in to the north of the
region.
Given continued above normal storminess, temperatures will be mild
with highs generally in the mid/upper 80s with near 90 temps near
and west of the I-75 corridor and across inland SE GA. Mild low
temperatures will range in the 70s to possibly a few upper 60s
near the Altamaha River basin where drier air and lighter winds
are expected.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Monday through next Friday)
Issued at 213 PM EDT Fri Aug 23 2024
High pressure will build north of the region early next week,
shunting the meandering front farther south as drier air filters
across the region from the north with precipitable water falling
below normal to about 1.5 inches Thu/Fri under easterly steering
flow. As rain chances decrease and return to mainly a diurnal sea
breeze region across NE FL, temperatures warm above normal values
with a strengthening ridge aloft. High temperatures will range in
the low/mid 90s as daily heat index values near 100-107 degF.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 213 PM EDT Fri Aug 23 2024
Gusty onshore winds will prevail along with bands of showers and
thunderstorms across much of area waters through this evening.
The frontal boundary will remain situated over the northeast
Florida waters through Saturday before shifting southward on
Sunday and Monday. Onshore winds will weaken but will remain
persistent into early portions of next week, with periods of
showers and thunderstorms expected throughout our local waters.
Rip Currents: Onshore flow will keep rip current risk high at all
beaches through today, though falling to moderate Saturday.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG 69 88 71 89 / 10 40 10 40
SSI 75 87 76 87 / 40 60 30 60
JAX 73 88 75 88 / 40 70 30 70
SGJ 74 88 76 89 / 50 70 30 70
GNV 71 89 73 88 / 40 70 10 80
OCF 71 90 74 90 / 40 70 10 90
&&
.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk until 5 AM EDT Saturday for FLZ124-125-133-
138.
GA...High Rip Current Risk until 5 AM EDT Saturday for GAZ154-166.
AM...None.
&&The Jacksonville radar (KJAX), 15 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 04:59 UTC.
3 heavy rain, 1 flash flood, 1 flood. Local standard time, as filed.
Daily storm total rainfall thus far was 4.41 inches at Cocorahs station FL-DV-131 Jacksonville 4.3 NE.
Daily storm total rainfall thus far was 4.90 inches at Mesonet station CW2098 Jacksonville.
A personal weather station Weather Violet - | KFLATLAN49 measured 6.08 inches of rain. | Rain began at 1:25 AM.
At 3:51 am, law enforcement reported that heavy rainfall caused flooding in the Atlantic Beach area, closing part of Mayport Road (1800 to 1900 block) and all of Atlantic Boulevard (300 block) from 3rd Street to Ocean Boulevard. At 3:50 am, broadcast media shared photos showing extensive road flooding along Palm Ave and Aquatic Dr in Atlantic Beach. Time was estimated by nearby report. Some locations in the Flash Flood Warning area measured 3-6 inches of rainfall during the early morning.
Minor street flooding near Northwest 83rd Place and Northwest 15th Avenue. Radar estimates showed about 1 to 2 inches in the past hour.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Florida in 2024Every state in 2024This day in weather historyWarnings in Florida, August 2024
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1203877, 1203878, 1203876, 1203872, 1203875.