A slow-moving frontal boundary brought several rounds of showers and thunderstorms to central Illinois from November 3rd through 5th. Storm total rainfall during that time ranged from 2 to 4 inches, with a few locations across the Illinois River Valley picking up greater than 4 inches.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS ILX wrote it up.
A slow-moving frontal boundary brought several rounds of showers and thunderstorms to central Illinois from November 3rd through 5th. Storm total rainfall during that time ranged from 2 to 4 inches, with a few locations across the Illinois River Valley picking up greater than 4 inches. Due to antecedent drought conditions through September and October, much of the heavy rainfall readily soaked into the ground and caused little issue other than standing water in urban locations. Localized flash flooding occurred under a viaduct in Champaign likely due to storm drains clogged with leaves and other debris.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Lincoln, IL wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Nov 4, 7:40 PM CST, 1 hour 11 minutes earlier. Its key messages:
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated National Weather Service Lincoln IL 740 PM CST Mon Nov 4 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - A couple narrow channels of enhanced rainfall will develop tonight through Tuesday afternoon. Areas west of Interstate 55 have the highest probability (30-40% chance) of receiving a 2"/6hr rainfall overnight, which may result in localized ponding, especially in urban areas and along rural ditches where corn stubble may slow drainage. - Gusty south winds will gust 30-40 mph Tuesday morning ahead of the main cold front. Areas north of a Havana-to-Effingham line have greater than a 70% chance of gusts occasionally exceeding 45 mph. A Wind Advisory is is in effect for these areas. - The next chance for sub-freezing temperatures appears to come near the end of next week, with global ensembles currently running about a 10% chance for this season's first snowflakes. && .UPDATE... Issued at 740 PM CST Mon Nov 4 2024 While the overall area of steady rain has lifted northeast across a large part of central Illinois, there has been a narrow band along the south edge that has been producing as much as 1.5 inches of rain in an hour. This is running about 60% of flash flood guidance. Some recent development has also occurred over south central Illinois. Some adjustments were made to the evening rainfall chances and amounts to reflect these trends. On the larger scale, a narrow band of strong to severe thunderstorms extends from central Missouri into northwest Arkansas. The individual cells are tracking northeast, while the overall area gradually edges east. Overall severe chances remain about the same this far to the northeast, with a marginal severe risk. With the low level jet expected to ramp up again through the evening, it wouldn't take much for some of it to mix down to the surface in some heavier showers, as they move toward the Illinois River valley toward late evening. As it is, wind gusts of 35-40 mph are likely over a good portion of the forecast area after midnight, with the strongest during the morning. No changes are being made to the Wind Advisory yet, but will need to monitor for starting it a few hours early. Geelhart && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 211 PM CST Mon Nov 4 2024 A deep upper-level low, currently positioned over the TX/OK panhandles, will open and lift across the Plains tonight, with its attendant surface low deepening and moving into the Upper Mississippi Valley by Tuesday afternoon. Meanwhile, a strong and broad LLJ with favorable north-south fetch from the Gulf will support a very moisture-laden airmass ahead of the main cold front, with PWATS forecast to exceed the 99th percentile for early November climatology. It's not a textbook Maddox setup for flash flooding in our area, but with deep southwest flow somewhat parallel to the broad baroclinic zone, and a robust source of moisture, multiple rounds of rainfall will result in widespread beneficial rainfall, with perhaps some localized flooding tonight into Tuesday. Glancing at the most recent HREF guidance suggests the axis of heaviest rainfall will stay west of Interstate 55 where there is a 30-40% probability of exceeding 2" of rainfall within a 6hr period overnight. Additionally, the LPMM even paints a narrow channel of 3+" somewhere west of I-55. With relatively dry antecedent conditions still in place, the scope of any flooding might be confined to urban areas and rural ditches where recent harvest might block some drainage with corn stubble. Aside from the rain, gusty south winds will be another potential hazard to contend with as the surface low rapidly deepens as it lifts into central Iowa Tuesday morning. It's always tricky in a warm/moist advection regime, because the depth of mixing in the boundary layer is usually limited, but with a very shallow 50-55 kt LLJ core veering across central and NE Illinois, and with a tightening surface pressure gradient, and the potential for a few convective showers, there is an increasing probability (> 70% chance) for occasional gusts to exceed 45 mph Tuesday morning and Tuesday afternoon. For these reasons, we proactively hoisted a Wind Advisory for locations generally north of a Havana-to- Effingham line. By Tuesday evening, a deepening mid-level kicker trough will emerge to our west and effectively nudge our rainmaker east and out of the area. Model guidance is then in excellent agreement of this kicker trough becoming pinched-off from the main belt of westerlies by midweek, which will amplify the pattern and result in a stretch of seasonable and mostly sunny weather from Wed - Fri. There remains some timing discrepancies with the evolution of the cut-off low by the weekend, but as the upper disturbance opens and pivots toward our area, we are anticipating another frontal passage to bring additional rainfall. Those are the main forecast highlights, but something to keep watch for is the arrival of our next good cold snap. With the AO and NAO now exhibiting negative values, there is a bit of a signal for colder air to spill equatorward by later next week. And, about 10% of the current global ensemble solutions (GEFS, EPS and GEPS) are offering the season's first snowflakes by then. MJA && .AVIATION... (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Tuesday Evening) Issued at 530 PM CST Mon Nov 4 2024 IFR ceilings are spreading northeast into central Illinois as rain becomes more widespread. However, a general trend will be for a few hours of sub-1000 foot ceilings before lifting a bit, with the greatest focus near a KUIN-KPIA line. By 05-06Z, areas near KDEC/KCMI will likely see ceilings lift to around 4000 feet, with a dry slot ahead of rainy areas pushing east. While thunder chances can't be ruled out overnight, a bit more certainty is expected during the evening, and the TAF's focus on a 3-4 hour window at each site. Getting to late in the forecast period, a more wholesale lifting of ceilings is expected mid to late Tuesday afternoon, as a cold front moves into the area. South winds will be gusting over 25 knots a good portion of the period, with 30-35 knots likely through midday. Geelhart && .ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Wind Advisory from 6 AM to 2 PM CST Tuesday for ILZ031-037-038- 042>046-053>057. &&
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Lincoln IL 326 PM CST Mon Nov 4 2024 ILZ027>031-036-037-040>042-047>051-052130- Knox-Stark-Peoria-Marshall-Woodford-Fulton-Tazewell-Schuyler-Mason- Logan-Cass-Menard-Scott-Morgan-Sangamon- 326 PM CST Mon Nov 4 2024 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Illinois and west central Illinois. .DAY ONE...Tonight. Occasional showers and thunderstorms are expected through tonight. Some periods of heavier rain will be possible, particularly late this evening into the overnight hours with thunderstorms. The strongest thunderstorms tonight could generate locally damaging wind gusts. South winds will gust 30 to 40 mph at times through tonight, even outside of thunderstorms. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday. Showers and a few storms will continue through the first part of the day Tuesday, but will gradually taper off from the west. Winds gusts of 30 to 45 mph out of the south to southwest will continue Tuesday. This could create difficult travel conditions for high profile vehicles. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not anticipated tonight. ILZ038-043>046-052>057-061>063-066>068-071>073-052130- McLean-De Witt-Piatt-Champaign-Vermilion-Christian-Macon-Moultrie- Douglas-Coles-Edgar-Shelby-Cumberland-Clark-Effingham-Jasper- Crawford-Clay-Richland-Lawrence- 326 PM CST Mon Nov 4 2024 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Illinois, east central Illinois and southeast Illinois. .DAY ONE...Tonight. Occasional showers and thunderstorms are expected through tonight. Some periods of heavier rain will be possible, particularly this evening. South winds gusting 30 to 40 mph at times through tonight, even outside of thunderstorms. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday. Showers and a few storms will continue Tuesday, but will gradually taper off from the west through the latter half of the day. The heavier showers may bring wind localized wind gusts over 50 mph. Even outside of showers, winds will gust 30 to 45 mph out of the south to southwest through mid afternoon. North of I-70 and east of I-55, gusts may exceed 45 mph at times early Tuesday afternoon. This could create difficult travel conditions for high profile vehicles. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not anticipated tonight. Bumgardner
Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
623 PM CST Mon Nov 4 2024
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0620 PM Rain 1 NNE Paradise 39.43N 88.44W
11/04/2024 M1.20 Inch Coles IL Emergency Mngr
Rainfall total since midnight.
0620 PM Rain 2 WNW Mattoon 39.48N 88.40W
11/04/2024 M1.16 Inch Coles IL Emergency Mngr
Rainfall total since midnight.
&&The Lincoln radar (KILX), 93 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 02:52 UTC.
1 flash flood. Local standard time, as filed.
A vehicle stalled in high water beneath a viaduct in Champaign.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Illinois in 2024Every state in 2024This day in weather historyWarnings in Illinois, November 2024
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1224322.