Idaho, 2024

Debris Flow in Idaho, September 11, 2024

September 11, 2024 · NWS OTX · 2 events in 2 counties and zones

A line of instability stretching over Lower Idaho Panhandle generated thunderstorms and heavy rain during the afternoon of September 11 2024. The storms caused a debris flow near the Gwen Fire burn scar and generated a funnel cloud over Mann Lake near Lapwai.

Where it happened

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The toll

Deaths
0
Injuries
0
Property damage
$1,000
Crop damage
None recorded
Events
2

Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.

What happened

The episode as NWS OTX wrote it up.

A line of instability stretching over Lower Idaho Panhandle generated thunderstorms and heavy rain during the afternoon of September 11 2024. The storms caused a debris flow near the Gwen Fire burn scar and generated a funnel cloud over Mann Lake near Lapwai.

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Spokane, WA wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Sep 11, 3:45 AM PST, 6 hours 15 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Sep 11, 3:45 AM PST, 6 hours 15 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
445 AM PDT Wed Sep 11 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A fall-like weather pattern arrives today with cooler temperatures
and chances for showers and a few thunderstorms. Steady rains
continue to fall over Idaho overnight and Thursday while Central
Washington dries out with breezy northwest winds. Temperatures
will cool into the 60s and 70s. Showers return to the northern
mountains over the weekend, otherwise dry conditions are expected
Friday into the weekend for most communities in the Inland
Northwest with temperatures warming into the 70s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today through Thursday: A pattern change is underway as a robust
upper-level low swings into the Northwest. Fairly well modeled
precipitation has developed this morning in two areas. Bands of
showers with embedded thunderstorms are developing along the
leading midlevel front from NE Oregon to the Central Panhandle
Mountains of Idaho. Precipitation rates have been on the order of
0.01-0.05" per hour and we have observed scattered lightning
strikes. NAM has picked up this ribbon of elevated instability
well and indicates it is at its peak and will diffuse around 12z
(5AM) with 700-500mb CAPE decreasing from 300 J/kg toward 100
J/kg. This should result in decreasing lightning but continued
light rain. The other area of showers this morning is across the
Cascades and into areas of Central WA from Wenatchee to Republic.
We have not observed any lightning with this activity and
precipitation rates will remain light and generally T-0.02" with
any passing showers.

As we head into today, the low will continue to swing inland across
N Oregon-southern WA. A band of showers will continue to fall
over North Idaho and buckle back to the west some with some
showers expanding across the border into E WA. Highest rain
amounts will stretch from the Camas Prairie to the Central
Panhandle Mountains which carries a 70-80% chance for a quarter of
an inch or more. Amounts outside the persistent band of showers
will be less than a tenth. In Central WA, cooling temperatures
aloft will promote afternoon instability and hit or miss showers
and thunderstorms. Sun breaks will be key to the amount of
instability and intensity of showers/storms. If surface heating is
adequate, a few cells could be stronger with heavy downpours and
potential for a quick 0.25" or more. These will be slow moving
cells and need to be monitored for impacts near sensitive burn
scars. Confidence is not high enough at this time to warrant any
flood watches but something we will be monitoring closely.
Temperatures today will feel more like September with readings in
the 60s to 70s. Winds will remain breezy from the southwest with
speeds of 8 to 15 mph.

The focus for rain moving into tonight and Thursday will shift into
the Idaho Panhandle and Western Montana with some chances
expanding into the eastern third of WA as the upper low continues
its trek through Central Idaho and into southwestern Montana. Rain
wrapping around the northern periphery of the low within a trowal
region will be capable of moderate rainfall amounts. There
remains modest uncertainty how far east the heavier rainfall will
reach. Does it remain in Western MT and Clearwater/Idaho Counties
or can it expand east into Shoshone, Kootenai, Bonner, Boundary
counties? The latest deterministic runs from the NAM/GFS are
supporting the later with some areas receiving around half an inch
or more. While the ECMWF supports rain in these areas, amounts
are nearly half that. The latest ensembles have trend toward the
wetter direction as well with rainfall amounts increasing again
for locations like Kellogg, Coeur D Alene, Sandpoint, and Bonners
Ferry during this period. The NAM which supports the moderate
rains reaching into N Idaho has also shown superior initialization
of the upper-low off the WA Coast at 06z tonight. There will be a
sharp gradient from east to west into WA where the rain falls and
dry conditions exist. Given differences in the models, NBM is
still carrying 20-40% chances for rain across the border in
extreme E WA but this comes with moderate uncertainty yet hard to
ignore the increase in probabilities. As for amounts for WED NIGHT
and THU, the latest NBM probabilities are as follows:

Probability for 0.10 or more"

Bonners Ferry - 70%
Sandpoint - 70%
Coeur D Alene - 60%
Kellogg - 80%
St Maries - 70%
Deary - 70%
Lewiston - 50%
Winchester - 80%
Ione-Spokane-Pullman - 40%

Probability for 0.25 or more"

Bonners Ferry - 60%
Sandpoint - 60%
Coeur D Alene - 40%
Kellogg - 65%
St Maries - 50%
Deary - 50%
Lewiston - 35%
Winchester - 70%
Ione-Spokane-Pullman - 20%

Probability for 0.50 or more"

Bonners Ferry - 30%
Sandpoint - 40%
Coeur D Alene - 15%
Kellogg - 50%
St Maries - 30%
Deary - 30%
Lewiston - 10%
Winchester - 40%
Ione-Spokane-Pullman - 10%

Central WA will experience dry conditions with breezy to gusty
northwest winds drawn into the low. Sustained speeds of 10-20 mph
will be common with gusts up to 30 mph. Ample sunshine in Central
WA will allow for a few communities to reach the upper 70s.
Otherwise, temperatures across the region will range from the
lower 70s to 60s in North Idaho. Communities along the Montana
border may struggle to hit 60F where persistent rains exist.

Friday through Tuesday: Shortwave ridging returns on Friday as one
system exits and the next one approaches. By Saturday, the region
will become under the influence of southerly flow aloft as the
next trof begins to swing onto the coast. The incoming system
looks to undergo a good deal of meridional stretching which does
not bode well for appreciable precipitation for the Inland NW.
Showers are introduced into the forecast across the northern
mountains Saturday and Sunday then split toward the Idaho
Panhandle and Cascades Monday and Tuesday. This is less coverage
for central and eastern WA than 24 hours ago. Temperatures warm
back into the 70s (with a few low 80s) Friday through Sunday then
cool back into the 60s for Monday and Tuesday. Winds will be
breezy at times, especially Sunday into early next week as the air
mass cools again. /sb

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: Cooler and unsettled weather pattern today as upper-
level trof swings into the Northwest. Persistent showers to
continue through the day from Lewiston to St Maries to Bonners
Ferry with minor wavering of the north-south band east to west at
times. Local MVFR vis have been observed under heavier showers. A
few lightning strikes will be possible in the afternoon along
this band. Less organized hit- miss showers possible for the
remainder of Eastern WA to the Cascades. A few cells in the
afternoon could mature into thunderstorms with heavier downpours
and local MVFR cigs/vis. Highest probability will be in the
Cascades from Plain to Winthrop though this comes with low
confidence. Some gustiness to 20 mph possible near any showers.
Aft 00z, showers end for Central WA but continue for North Idaho
with an increasing potential for MVFR conditions as the atmosphere
continues to saturate. Highest probabilities for lengthy MVFR
conditions will be from Winchester to Mullan.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Erratic wind gusts
20-28 mph possible near showers through 00z as our antecedent dry
air mass saturates. The exact placement of the band of persistent
showers over N Idaho could pivot east to west at times and
confidence is low for the coverage of showers forming immediately
west of the band into far E WA from Ione to Spokane to Pullman.
Confidence is also low for lightning coverage this afternoon with
amount dependent on surface heating. Lastly, as the main precip
threat shifts toward the ID/MT border Thursday morning, there are
differences exactly where this setups and produces steady light to
moderate rainfall. This is likely to create MVFR or lower
conditions for some areas. Best guess by 12z is along a line
from Winchester to Mullan but looks for this to pivot west into
additional areas of N Idaho 12-18Z Thu. /sb

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        71  52  73  50  74  50 /  60  30  20  20   0   0
Coeur d'Alene  68  51  68  49  71  49 /  80  60  60  40  10   0
Pullman        66  50  65  47  70  45 /  80  60  50  20   0   0
Lewiston       73  56  73  54  78  54 /  80  60  60  20   0   0
Colville       71  50  73  43  76  40 /  50  30  20  20  10   0
Sandpoint      65  51  65  47  69  46 /  70  60  80  60  40   0
Kellogg        63  50  59  50  67  51 /  90  80  90  60  40   0
Moses Lake     74  52  76  48  77  48 /  30  10   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      71  52  74  52  77  55 /  40  20   0   0   0   0
Omak           73  51  79  50  80  53 /  60  20   0   0   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

The radar

The Spokane radar (KOTX), 150 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 17:57 UTC.

Open the radar archive at this moment

Event by event

1 debris flow, 1 funnel cloud. Local standard time, as filed.

Debris Flow, Benewah

When
September 11, 10:00 AM PST to 5:50 PM PST
Where
Benewah County, 41.38 mi S of Sanders to 41.05 mi S of Sanders
Cause
Heavy Rain / Burn Area
Property damage
$1,000
Reported by
Public
Coordinates
46.510, -116.650

Public report via social media stated rocks on Highway 12 within the Gwen Fire burn scar. This was confirmed by dispatch. Rocks were cleared and highway remained open. Nearby gauges reported 0.40 of an inch to 0.80 of an inch of rain over the last 18 hours.

Funnel Cloud, Nez Perce

When
September 11, 3:07 PM PST to 3:13 PM PST
Where
Nez Perce County, 2.13 mi NNW of Webb
Reported by
Public
Coordinates
46.380, -116.840

Public reported to local media an EF0 funnel cloud near Mann Lake at 1613 PDT. No damage reported.

What these are

Debris Flow
A fast-moving slurry of mud, rock and debris, usually on a slope soaked by heavy rain or stripped by a fire.
Funnel Cloud
A rotating column of cloud extending from a thunderstorm that did not reach the ground.

After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.

The same day elsewhere

More

Every storm in Idaho in 2024Every state in 2024This day in weather historyWarnings in Idaho, September 2024

Sources

NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1217194, 1217193.