Wildfire in Guam, February 13 to 14, 2024

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tiyan GU
557 PM ChST Tue Feb 13 2024

.Marianas Synopsis...
Partly cloudy skies and isolated showers were observed within the
coastal waters this afternoon. The Tanapag buoy shows seas hovering
around 7 feet.

&&

.Discussion...
A dry trade-wind pattern continues to persist across the Marianas
this afternoon. Satellite shows a shear line moving southward just
north of the Saipan coastal waters. Models bring the shear line
through Saipan around Wednesday morning and Guam around Wednesday
night with breezy conditions and isolated showers expected during
passage. Unfortunately, the shear line will be the only real chance
of a wetting rainfall through at least this weekend. A break from
the breezy conditions is expected in the latter part of this week
into the weekend, which will lessen the fire danger risk over Guam.

&&

.Marine...
Fresh to strong winds are expected to persist through Thursday, then
weaken to gentle to moderate this weekend. A Small Craft Advisory
remains in effect through Thursday due to combined seas of 9-11 feet
and winds of 20 to 25 kts and frequent gusts to 30 kts.

&&

.Fire weather...
The KDBI is up to 663, which is in the very high category for fire
danger. Breezy conditions and low humidities are expected to persist
through Thursday. Winds and fire danger will persist through this
weekend.

&&

.Eastern Micronesia...
The High Surf Advisory remains in effect Kosrae and Pohnpei. Sea
conditions are slowly subsiding and the surf should decrease by
Wednesday. Models indicate sea conditions will become hazardous again
by the end of this week, especially for the northern Marshall
Islands as a long-period north swell arrives by Thursday or Friday.

ASCAT Analysis shows a surface trough over Kosrae State is causing
scattered showers and edging westward into Pohnpei State. Otherwise,
a relatively dry trade-wind flow will continue across Eastern
Micronesia, and especially dry weather for the northern Marshalls.

&&

.Western Micronesia...
A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for Palau, Yap, and Chuuk
and a High Surf Advisory remains for Yap and Palau. Palau Ngaraard/
Babeldaob Buoy earlier today reported waves sharply increased to 15
to 20 foot maximum seas, and marine forecasts were quickly updated
for Western Micronesia. The buoy recently indicates combined seas
mostly about 10 feet.

A trough fired off thunderstorms southwest of Koror last night but
they have moved much farther west. Currently, fresh to strong trade-
wind flow prevails across the region and that will continue this
week. High pressure has built into the northwest Pacific so the
pressure gradient will remain tight and a shear line is also moving
southward through the Marianas. Chuuk will be at risk for hazardous
sea condition through most of this week, especially as a north swell
arrives in addition to the northeast swell. Yap and Palau will also
receive some north swell along with the northeast swell, but sea
conditions will be more moderate there by this weekend.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...High Rip Current Risk through Thursday afternoon for GUZ001.

     Red Flag Warning until 6 PM ChST Thursday for GUZ001.

     High Surf Advisory until 6 PM ChST Thursday for GUZ001.

MP...High Rip Current Risk through Thursday afternoon for MPZ001>003.

     High Surf Advisory until 6 PM ChST Thursday for MPZ001>003.

 Marianas Waters...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM ChST Thursday
for PMZ151>154.

&&

Marianas: Kelly
Micronesia: Simpson