Drought in Guam, April 1 to 30, 2024

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tiyan GU
618 PM ChST Sun Mar 31 2024

.Marianas Synopsis...
Mostly clear skies with only spotty showers and moderate to fresh
winds with strong gusts. Latest altimetry shows seas between 5 and
8 feet.

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.Discussion...
Little change expected over the next several days. Mostly dry
conditions are expected to continue through the coming weekend.
There is a trade-wind surge evident to the east of the islands that
will bring an uptick in showers to the islands Monday through Monday
night. Not a big increase in coverage is expected as mid to upper-
level moisture remain limited. CIMMS MIMIC PWAT values are showing an
increase in moisture with the surge, though PWATs still look to
remain at or below 1.7 inches. Breezy conditions are also expected to
continue through the coming weekend.

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.Marine...
Fresh trade winds with strong gusts are seen across Marianas waters
this evening. Guam International Airport reported wind speeds of up
to 20 knots today, with gusts as high as 29 knots. Therefore, a Small
Craft Advisory was issued early this afternoon, valid through 4 AM
Wednesday. Winds are expected to subside slightly by Wednesday
afternoon, though they are expected to remain moderate to fresh
through the end of the week. Combined seas of 5 to 8 feet tonight
will subside a bit Monday, to between 5 and 7 feet, before building
again late in the week. For now, east swell looks to remain at or
below 6 feet, keeping surf below thresholds to produce a high risk of
rip currents.

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.Fire weather...
Only a trace of rain fell over Guam yesterday, with only spotty light
showers seen over the region today. The KBDI continues to increase
and now stands at 708. With fresh trade winds and strong gusts, this
puts the KBDI in the extreme fire risk category. The KBDI combined
with very dry fuels, RH values less than 55 percent and winds in
excess of 20 mph, Red Flag Warning conditions continued across Guam.
With little change expected over the next few days, the Red Flag
Warning was extended through Wednesday evening. The greatest fire
risk will continue to be during the daytime hours, especially late
morning through early afternoon. An increase in showers is possible
Monday into Monday night, though a wetting rain is not likely and any
rainfall is expected to evaporate quickly. Winds look to subside a
bit later in the week, allowing the fire danger to decrease slightly,
though any fires could still spread easily due to the very dry
fuels.

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.Eastern Micronesia...
Current satellite shows that the bulk of the convection that brought
precipitation to Kosrae and Pohnpei the past couple of days has now
begun to exit eastern Micronesia into western Micronesia. Models
show convection redeveloping Tuesday night into Wednesday across the
region, but mainly south of 7N, keeping chances for scattered showers
along and south of Kosrae. Models are hinting towards more
widespread convection across the region towards the end of the week
that could bring increased rain chances to Pohnpei, Kosrae, and
Majuro.

Altimetry shows combined seas in the 6 to 8 foot range adjacent to
Pohnpei and Majuro with Kalo buoy reporting seas around 4 ft.
Northeast swells of 4 to 7 feet will generally remain through
Wednesday before becoming an easterly and southeasterly swell
towards the end of the week. Combined seas could approach 9 ft
early in the week, but should remain below advisory criteria.

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.Western Micronesia...
Satellite imagery reveals persistent convection across Chuuk State
and just south of Weno. MIMIC TPW imagery shows a weak circulation
within the area of convection. The GFS slowly develops the
disturbance as it moves into Yap State and across Palau this week.
There is some support from the GEFS, however, the 00z GEFS saw a
decrease in member support. The ECMWF and EPS also don't support
further development. At this time, will continue forecasting
increased rain chances for Palau next week, but confidence is low on
the GFS solution.

Altimetry reveals combined seas in the 6 to 9 foot range.
Ngaraard/Babeldaob buoy has generally been between 6 and 7 feet
today. Seas should decrease into the 5 to 7 foot range this week
before rising towards the end of the week. Swells will generally
range from 4 to 6 feet through the week.

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.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...Red Flag Warning until 6 PM ChST Wednesday for GUZ001.

Marianas Waters...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM ChST Wednesday
	 for PMZ151>154.

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Marianas: Kleeschulte
Micronesia: Williams