Cold in Georgia, January 16 to 17, 2024

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
252 PM EST Tue Jan 16 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Cold air settles into the region tonight through Wednesday. Another
low pressure system approaches from the west Thursday night
into Friday. Another round of cold air pushes into the
region over the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 245 pm EST Tuesday: Still seeing some patches of
sprinkles/light rain streaming over Union County NC at this hour,
but it should end shortly. Meanwhile, webcams continue to show some
light snow falling over parts of the nrn mountains, which is not
a surprise given some low clouds lingering in the upslope areas
of the nrn mountains. Before the cirrus veil moved overhead, the
IR cloud top temps were down into the -15 to -18C range, which is
well into the dendritic snow growth zone. Thus, the snow obs come
as no surprise in spite of the lack of radar returns from KMRX. We
will hold onto some chance of light snow thru the mid-afternoon,
but satellite trends show the low clouds thinning out and pulling
out to the NE, so this should be adequate. Additional accumulation
should be less than one inch of fluffy dry snow. The cold air
has been gradually filtering in from the NW already today with
the wind shifting to NW and N. One of the main issues with the
fcst is the potential for black ice tonight east of the mtns. Our
thinking has not changed in that regard. The precip ended early
enough and was not great enough, clouds are thinning out enough,
and the wind will pick up enough that roads will manage to dry out
before temps fall below freezing later this evening. No SPS will
be issued outside the mtns at this time, but that could change if
it comes to our attention that we have more than spotty coverage
of lingering wet roads after sunset.

For tonight, the upper trof axis will swing thru this evening, but
the moisture should be mostly gone by then. The evening begins with
a decent pressure gradient across the region between the departing
low and the high center over east TX, so that should keep our
drying NW wind intact until late tonight. That gradient slowly
relaxes overnight as the temps plummet to the coldest readings we
have had since December 2022. Only minor changes were made to low
temps and winds overnight, so the Wind Chill Advisories look like
they are in good shape and will be kept intact. Speaking of those
low temps...brrr...and on the order of 15 to 20 degrees below
normal. The high center moves in on Wednesday as the upper flow
gradually flattens to become nearly zonal, so expect full sun. That
won't help the temps much, because highs still look to be about 15
degrees below normal. At least the wind will go light by afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 140 PM EST Tuesday: Flow aloft flattens out during the day
Wednesday as surface high settles over the area, making for a nice
day Wednesday afternoon. Changes slowly begin to take place as the
surface high gradually pushes offshore the Southeast Coast and the
CFWA induces a weak south-southwesterly return flow. The flow aloft
will be disrupted by a digging upper trough that builds in from the
northwest as a closed upper low begins to evolve and set up shop
over the Great Lakes region by the end of the period. An embedded
shortwave will round the base of the digging upper trough and slide
into the region late Thursday. Expect enough of a moisture transport
and isentropic ascent to allow for precipitation to commence, ahead
of the attendant cold front.

The timing of the onset of precip could make things interesting
across the mountains and portions of the NC/SC/GA Piedmont. 850mb
temperatures will be well above freezing, with a huge warm nose in
place. In this case, most of the precip that falls will be all
liquid in the Piedmont zones, but temperatures will hover around
freezing and could lead to a light glaze of ice, especially on
elevated surfaces around daybreak Friday. Temperatures will rebound
quickly after daybreak Friday, so any glaze of ice that forms should
rapidly melt. The best chance for light freezing rain will be in
locations north and west of the I-85 corridor. Can't rule out a
mixed bag a precip, including snow/sleet, but the latest vertical
profiles suggest this ends up either rain or freezing rain, while
the mountains likely receive a mixed-bag of wintry p-types and
mostly snow at the highest elevations. Any accumulations are
expected to be light outside of locations along the immediate
Tennessee border as northwest flow snow develops on the backside of
the system on Friday. The cold front is expected to slip through the
area during the daytime period Friday as stout CAA filters in behind
and will lead to the coldest air of the season by this weekend and
will have more on that in the extended forecast. Temperatures
Wednesday night will up to 10 degrees below normal thanks to great
radiational cooling conditions. Temperatures remain a few ticks
below normal for highs Thursday afternoon, while values remain near-
normal overnight Thursday and Friday.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 245 PM EST Tuesday: Cold thicknesses over the area from the
closed low will continue to remain in place before the low opens
up and meanders over the region through late Saturday. Very strong
arctic high (1040+mb) will move into the area as very strong CAA
continues to filter in across the region. 850mb temperatures will
plummet Friday night into Saturday, while sub-advisory wind gusts
will be ongoing. As a result, negative wind chills will be plastered
across the mountains, while single digits to near zero values in
locations outside of the mountains Friday night. This will likely
result in a Wind Chill Advisory for a good portion of the CFWA. The
arctic high will continue moving eastward and set up shop over
the central CONUS on Saturday. Continued CAA and the closed upper
low phasing with the northern stream will open the trough axis and
allow it to push east of the area by Saturday night. In this case,
very cold air will still be in place Saturday as highs will be
15+ degrees below normal for most locations, with areas north and
west of I-85 struggling to get above freezing. Another very cold
night will be in store Saturday night with lows 15-20+ degrees
below normal as winds gradually subside, but radiational cooling
conditions will lead to very cold air remaining over the area.

Conditions very slowly modify Sunday as high pressure sets up
shop over the Carolinas and Mid-Atlantic, while heights begin to
recover as upper ridging builds in from the west. The airmass
will recover by Monday as we completely modify as the area of
high pressure remains in control and thicknesses rebound quite
nicely. Expect much warmer temperatures by the early part of next
week, but model guidance have another storm system moving into the
area by the very end of D7 and will be the next weather maker to
watch. Temperatures will be at or slightly above normal by Monday
and Tuesday of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: Still dealing with some lingering IFR ceiling
across the CLT metro area with some passing light rain showers at
issuance time, along with some MVFR broken ceilings with 50 miles
or so of the back end of the precip, not to mention low clouds
getting pushed up the river valley to KAVL. The upshot is that
several terminals get at least a temporary ceiling restriction
for the first few hours, but we are on track to clear/scatter
out the low clouds by 20Z or so. Most places have seen the wind
shift already to WNW or NW, and as the clouds scatter out, expect
occasional wind gusts. All terminals should be VFR by 21Z at the
latest, and once they become VFR, should remain that way thru the
end of the period as high pressure brings dry and cold air into
the region. Wind gusts may continue well into the evening, but we
gradually lose the gusts after 03Z or so. Wednesday looks clear with
light NW wind in the morning, with eventually a lee trof bringing
the sfc wind back around to WSW in the afternoon east of the mtns.

Outlook: High pressure and VFR conditions will linger through
Thursday. Unsettled weather will return Thursday night into Friday
as a cold front crosses the region. Very cold and dry high pressure
and VFR conditions return for the weekend.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...Wind Chill Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 10 AM EST
     Wednesday for GAZ010.
NC...Wind Chill Advisory until noon EST Wednesday for NCZ033-
     048>052-058.
     Wind Chill Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 11 AM EST
     Wednesday for NCZ053-059-062>065-501-503-505.
SC...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...CP
NEAR TERM...PM
SHORT TERM...CAC
LONG TERM...CAC
AVIATION...PM

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
714 AM EST Tue Jan 16 2024

GAZ017-018-026-028-029-NCZ035>037-056-057-068>072-082-502-504-
506>510-SCZ008>014-019-101>109-171215-
Habersham-Stephens-Franklin-Hart-Elbert-Alexander-Iredell-Davie-
Catawba-Rowan-Cleveland-Lincoln-Gaston-Mecklenburg-Cabarrus-Union NC-
Greater Caldwell-Greater Burke-Eastern McDowell-Rutherford Mountains-
Greater Rutherford-Polk Mountains-Eastern Polk-Cherokee-York-
Anderson-Abbeville-Laurens-Union SC-Chester-Greenwood-
Oconee Mountains-Pickens Mountains-Greenville Mountains-
Greater Oconee-Greater Pickens-Central Greenville-
Southern Greenville-Northern Spartanburg-Southern Spartanburg-
714 AM EST Tue Jan 16 2024

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia, Piedmont
North Carolina, western North Carolina and Upstate South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

A very cold airmass will spread over the region late Friday and
linger through the weekend. Cold temperatures and bitter wind chills
will be likely across the area.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.

NCZ033-048>052-058-171215-
Avery-Madison-Yancey-Mitchell-Swain-Haywood-Graham-
714 AM EST Tue Jan 16 2024

...WIND CHILL ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO NOON
EST WEDNESDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of the mountains of
western North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Wind Chill Advisory.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Wind Chill Advisory.

In addition, a very cold airmass will spread over the region late
Friday and linger through the weekend. Cold temperatures and
bitter wind chills will be likely across the area.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.

NCZ053-059-062>065-501-503-505-171215-
Buncombe-Northern Jackson-Macon-Southern Jackson-Transylvania-
Henderson-Caldwell Mountains-Burke Mountains-McDowell Mountains-
714 AM EST Tue Jan 16 2024

...WIND CHILL ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EST
WEDNESDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of the mountains of
western North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Wind Chill Advisory.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Wind Chill Advisory.

In addition, a very cold airmass will spread over the region late
Friday and linger through the weekend. Cold temperatures and
bitter wind chills will be likely across the area.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.

GAZ010-171215-
Rabun-
714 AM EST Tue Jan 16 2024

...WIND CHILL ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
WEDNESDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Rabun County in northeast
Georgia.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Wind Chill Advisory.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Wind Chill Advisory.

In addition, a very cold airmass will spread over the region late
Friday and linger through the weekend. Cold temperatures and
bitter wind chills will be likely across the area.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.

HG

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
1113 AM EST Tue Jan 16 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1100 AM     Snow             1 SE Grandfather Mounta 36.09N 81.84W
01/16/2024  M7.4 inch        Avery              NC   CO-OP Observer

            Nature museum, elev 4678 ft.

&&

CSH

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
1122 AM EST Tue Jan 16 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1100 AM     Snow             3 S Grandfather Mountai 36.05N 81.84W
01/16/2024  E7.5 inch        Avery              NC   Storm Chaser

            4100 ft.

&&

CSH

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
1204 PM EST Tue Jan 16 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0700 PM     Snow             Faust                   35.91N 82.52W
01/15/2024  M5.8 inch        Madison            NC   Public

            Public measured 5.8 inches near Faust at an
            elevation of about 3300 feet. This was
            reported at 7:00 PM on January 15th.

&&