A long duration cold weather event continued as broad high pressure remained over a large portion of the eastern half of the country. Wind chills early the 17th bottomed out around -10 with lows of 0-5 in Northwestern Kentucky.
Every event with a place to put it; 1 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS PAH wrote it up.
A long duration cold weather event continued as broad high pressure remained over a large portion of the eastern half of the country. Wind chills early the 17th bottomed out around -10 with lows of 0-5 in Northwestern Kentucky. One person died as a result of cold weather exposure in Daviess County.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Paducah, KY wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jan 16, 3:33 PM CST, 4 hours 27 minutes earlier. Its key messages:
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Paducah KY 333 PM CST Tue Jan 16 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Another bitterly cold night is in store with wind chill readings between 0 to -8 degrees. - Warmer but still below normal temperatures for Wednesday into Thursday, followed by more dangerous cold Thursday night into Saturday night with wind chills falling below zero again. - The risk for light snow remains on track for Thursday into Thursday night, with the potential for some light accumulations and minor impacts. - A significant warming trend begins Sunday with a transition to a wetter pattern by the middle of next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 333 PM CST Tue Jan 16 2024 Anticyclonic flow associated with an area of sfc high pressure has built across the region allowing for lots of sunshine this afternoon. In fact, the current snowpack can be seen on the latest GOES-16 visible imagery that will set the stage for one final night of frigid minTs in the single digits. 925 mb temps will be 8-10 degC warmer compared to the previous night with light WSW-SW winds, but skies will also be mainly clear allowing for some radiational cooling to make up for this WAA. For this reason, blended NBM temps closer to the 25th percentile which keeps our western counties a few degrees warmer and below wind chill advisory criteria. However, wind chills below zero degrees are still expected, so have gone ahead and issued a SPS for the CWA for what will still be another bitterly cold night! By Wednesday morning, the aformentioned sfc high pressure will be centered east of the lower Ohio Valley as a cold front begins to approach from the west. The increase in the pressure gradient will allow for breezy conditions with gusts around 20 mph possible. But the most noteworthy change will be maxTs rising to near the freezing mark with minTs progged to fall into only the lower 20s with rising heights aloft. With that said, the next chance for pcpn in the form of mainly snow will arrive on Thursday as a 700-500 mb shortwave ejects across the central Plains. Combined with isentropic lift associated with 850- 700 mb WAA ahead of the cold front, the risk for snow will spread across the FA Thursday morning with temps starting off in the 20s before rising near to slightly above freezing in the afternoon. Initially, pcpn may briefly start off as rain, but given model soundings show wet bulb potential that would cause temps to cool quickly in the column, have made significant changes to the NBM WxType and removed the mention of rain for most locations in collaboration with WFO LMK. Unless we lack saturation in the DGZ like the NAM shows (currently an outlier), think it will be difficult for the thermodynamics to support a widespread mix for a long duration given the current snowpack. The exception is down near New Madrid/Fulton Counties by the TN border where pcpn on the onset may mix with rain/freezing rain due to a warm nose around 850 mb and warmer 2M temps. Otherwise, light snow will remain possible through Thursday evening before the cold front pushes east Thursday night. Overall, minor accumulations ranging from a dusting to near 1 inch across our far eastern counties remain possible through Thursday night. The 12z deterministic GFS still remains the most robust with QPF and would support a little more, as the mid-level energy is a bit more amplified compared to the CMC/ECMWF. In fact, the probability of 1 inch or greater is in the 25 to 40% range from Hopkinsville to Evansville where the potential for slightly higher amounts would be favored the most. With more marginal cold air in place, one thing that is worth noting is the snow character will be much wetter with SLRs struggling to rise above 10:1. This may result in only minor impacts with pavements seeing slightly less accumulation compared to colder/elevated surfaces. Behind the cold front Thursday night, much colder air will return once again as a trough digs across the Ohio Valley on Friday. This will cause wind chills to fall below zero Thursday night, and near -10 or colder Friday night when another wind chill advisory will likely be needed in the future. Breezy NW winds around 15 to 20 mph with gusts near 30 mph can also be expected on Friday. Would not be surprised to see some flurries or even a snow shower linger, especially across SW Indiana as a vort max rounds the base of the trough. Model soundings are hinting at some residual 925-900 mb moisture where the DGZ will be located! Finally, big changes are on track from Sunday through early next week as a ridge rapidly builds aloft with a potent 1040 mb sfc high pressure. This will eventually lead to a much warmer and wetter pattern by Tuesday as another frontal boundary slowly approaches the FA. Although confidence is low due to uncertainty in timing/placement, will need to monitor trends for Monday as there may be a short window to see the potential for a wintry mix with retreating cold air. In collaboration with our WFO neighbors, have left NBM mention of sleet/freezing rain on the onset before the transition to plain rain as the DESI Grand Ensembles indicates a 20- 40% probability across the NW. Despite the unsettled weather, NBM currently has 40s/50s progged for maxTs by Tuesday, so there is some good news! && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1110 AM CST Tue Jan 16 2024 Lingering MVFR cigs at terminals KEVV & KOWB will diminish over the next 1-2 hours; otherwise, VFR conditions are expected with mostly clear skies as high pressure builds over the region. WNW winds between 5 to 10 kts will shift WSW this evening and SW overnight. As the pressure gradient tightens Wednesday morning, winds will increase to 10-12 kts with gusts near 20 kts towards midday. && .PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None. && DISCUSSION...DW AVIATION...DW
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Paducah KY 353 PM CST Tue Jan 16 2024 ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087- 100-107>112-114-171000- Jefferson-Wayne IL-Edwards-Wabash-Perry IL-Franklin-Hamilton- White-Jackson-Williamson-Saline-Gallatin-Union-Johnson-Pope- Hardin-Alexander-Pulaski-Massac-Gibson-Pike-Posey-Vanderburgh- Warrick-Spencer-Fulton-Hickman-Carlisle-Ballard-McCracken-Graves- Livingston-Marshall-Calloway-Crittenden-Lyon-Trigg-Caldwell- Union KY-Webster-Hopkins-Christian-Henderson-Daviess-McLean- Muhlenberg-Todd-Perry MO-Bollinger-Cape Girardeau-Wayne MO-Carter- Ripley-Butler-Stoddard-Scott-Mississippi-New Madrid- 353 PM CST Tue Jan 16 2024 /453 PM EST Tue Jan 16 2024/ This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southern Illinois, southwest Indiana, western Kentucky, and southeast Missouri. .DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight Wind chill values between 0 to -8 degrees are possible tonight across the region. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday The is a chance of light snow Thursday into Thursday night, with light accumulations possible. Wind chill readings near -10 degrees or colder are possible Friday night into early Saturday morning across our area. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation will not be needed. DW
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
1 cold/wind chill. Local standard time, as filed.
The Daviess County Coroner reported that a homeless woman (58f) living in her car passed away on the 17th due to exposure to cold weather. Temperatures were frigid on the 17th, with an early morning low of 1 in Owensboro with wind chills bottoming out at -11.
As the offices recorded each death: direct deaths were caused by the weather itself, indirect ones by something it set in motion.
| Event | Date | Age | Sex | Where | Kind |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cold/Wind Chill, Daviess | 2024-01-17 | 58 | Female | Vehicle/Towed Trailer | Direct |
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Kentucky in 2024Every state in 2024This day in weather historyWarnings in Kentucky, January 2024
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1157346.