Tornado and Tropical Storm in Florida, October 8 to 10, 2024

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Key West FL
133 PM EDT Tue Oct 8 2024

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 133 PM EDT Tue Oct 8 2024
Some of the island chain is seeing sunlight this afternoon for a
change. Conditions today are a proverbial "calm before the storm"
after yesterday's cloudy and wet day. This doesn't mean rain is
completely out of the question for the Keys however, as KBYX radar
continues to detect a swath of showers and embedded thunderstorms
in our Gulf waters and the vicinity of the Upper Keys. Our radar
also has detected a handful of boundaries in the Straits of
Florida that have occasionally drifted north and sparked some
nearby showers. Coverage of these showers is sparse and has
therefore allowed for temperatures in the Lower and Middle Keys to
already reach into the upper 80s while ongoing cloud cover and
rain restricts Upper Keys temperatures to the upper 70s to lower
80s. Flow along the reef has an anticylonic look with light to
moderate southwesterly breezes at Sand Key and light westerlies at
Carysfort Reef Light.

As hinted to earlier, today will be the last day of near normal
weather conditions before Major Hurricane Milton's approach to the
Keys. Even near normal is a bit of a stretch as a description. A
stationary front is parked over South Florida as dry air descends
with deep layer troughing extends down the Eastern Seaboard. These
features have confined a large area of high PW values over South
Florida and the Keys. Combining this with the lift produced by
lingering mesoscale boundaries and unstable atmosphere sampled by
this morning's 12z sounding has resulted in enhanced PoPs along
the island chain today. That being said, CIMSS MIMIC TPW notes
drier PW values filtering in from the south as an area of
subsidence preceding Milton slides over the Keys. This means that
most of the rain (especially for the Lower and Middle Keys) has
likely already fallen as we find a lull in activity for the rest
of the day.

Tonight is the beginning of the main event with Major Hurricane
Milton. Milton is set to make its closet approach to the Florida
Keys sometime Wednesday morning to Wednesday afternoon. While the
more recent advisory from the National Hurricane Center has nudged
it further west, we still expect impacts to start across our area as
conditions deteriorate overnight. See our Hurricane Local
Statement product for the most up to date potential impacts to the
Florida Keys. PoPs will continue to be enhanced but somewhat
volatile as whether or not we see a large amount of precipitation
will depend on where Milton's rain bands will move through. Some
CAMs solutions suggest only a few large bands sweep through while
others develop convection around the island chain in multiple
rounds. Stay tuned...

In the days following Milton, moderate breezes will shift to be
out of the north to northeast. PoPs will fall to near to normal
values (~20%) as a drier air mass is left in Milton's wake.
Slightly lower dewpoints and temperatures may give us a glimpse of
Fall weather but only briefly. By the end of the weekend, we
return to a normal pattern with ridging building in the western
North Atlantic and easterly breezes along our Reef once more.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 133 PM EDT Tue Oct 8 2024
A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for all the Florida
Keys coastal waters with a Hurricane Watch for the offshore Gulf
waters. Gentle to moderate southwest to west breezes will briefly
slacken this afternoon before quickly increasing and shifting to
the southeast to south tonight as Hurricane Milton approaches.
Hurricane Milton is expected to make its closest approach sometime
Wednesday as it gains some speed and moves northeastward towards
Florida's West Gulf Coast. Due to this, a Tropical Storm Warning
remains in effect for all Keys coastal waters and a Hurricane
Watch is in effect for the offshore Gulf waters. An extended
period of hazardous marine conditions are expected through
Wednesday night. While conditions improve late week, moderate to
fresh northeast to east breezes are expected to continue through
the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(15Z TAFS)
Issued at 133 PM EDT Tue Oct 8 2024
We have entered into a brief lull in shower and thunderstorm
activity for both EYW and MTH terminals. Expecting convection to
redevelop in the late afternoon and evening hours as winds clock
around to the south in earnest. In addition, expect winds to
increase in strength, especially at the EYW terminal, as Milton
continues a northeast track from the Yucatan Peninsula overnight.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Key West  82  88  80  89 /  70  60  40  30
Marathon  81  88  82  89 /  60  60  50  30

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Coastal Flood Warning until 2 PM EDT Thursday for FLZ076>078.

     Tropical Storm Warning for FLZ076>078.

GM...Tropical Storm Warning for GMZ031>035-042>044-052>055-072>075.

     Hurricane Watch for GMZ033-034.

&&

Public/Marine/Fire...JAM
Aviation/Nowcasts....LIW
Data Acquisition.....AP

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Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Key West FL
509 AM EDT Tue Oct 8 2024

FLZ076>078-GMZ031>035-042>044-052>055-072>075-091030-
Monroe Upper Keys-Monroe Middle Keys-Monroe Lower Keys-
Florida Bay including Barnes Sound, Blackwater Sound, and
Buttonwood Sound-
Bayside and Gulf side from Craig Key to west end of Seven Mile
Bridge-
Gulf waters from East Cape Sable to Chokoloskee 20 to 60 NM out
and beyond 5 fathoms-
Gulf of Mexico including Dry Tortugas and Rebecca Shoal Channel-
Gulf of Mexico from west end of Seven Mile Bridge to Halfmoon
Shoal out to 5 Fathoms-
Hawk Channel from Ocean Reef to Craig Key out to the reef-
Hawk Channel from Craig Key to west end of Seven Mile Bridge out
to the reef-
Hawk Channel from west end of Seven Mile Bridge to Halfmoon Shoal
out to the reef-
Straits of Florida from Ocean Reef to Craig Key out 20 NM-
Straits of Florida from Craig Key to west end of Seven Mile
Bridge out 20 NM-
Straits of Florida from west end of Seven Mile Bridge to south of
Halfmoon Shoal out 20 NM-
Straits of Florida from Halfmoon Shoal to 20 NM west of Dry
Tortugas out 20 NM-
Straits of Florida from Ocean Reef to Craig Key 20 to 60 NM out-
Straits of Florida from Craig Key to west end of Seven Mile
Bridge 20 to 60 NM out-
Straits of Florida from west end of Seven Mile Bridge to south of
Halfmoon Shoal 20 to 60 NM out-
Straits of Florida from Halfmoon Shoal to 20 NM west of Dry
Tortugas 20 to 60 NM out-
509 AM EDT Tue Oct 8 2024

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the Florida Keys and
adjacent coastal waters.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Tropical Storm Warning and Coastal Flood Warning remains in effect
for all of the Florida Keys. The primary impact to the Keys from
the fringes of Hurricane Milton will be Wednesday and Wednesday
night.

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected today. The
primary hazards will be wind gusts of 35 to 45 mph, cloud to
surface lightning strikes, and locally heavy rainfall, with the
potential for flooding in low lying areas and roadways.

Thundery squalls with local wind gusts of 45 to 55 mph will be
possible throughout the Florida Keys tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Thundery squalls with local wind gusts of 55 to 65 mph will be
possible across the Florida Keys Wednesday through Thursday
morning.

There is about a two-in-five chance for sustained tropical storm force
winds of 40 to 50 mph from Wednesday morning through Thursday morning
as Milton makes its closest approach to the Keys, and a Tropical Storm
Warning remains in effect for all of the Florida Keys.

Storm surge saltwater flooding of 1 to 3 feet above ground level, or
mean higher high water, will be possible on the Gulf and Bay side of
the Florida Keys from Wednesday morning through Thursday. Additionally,
Atlantic facing shorelines will be susceptible to crashing waves and
overwash. A Coastal Flood Warning remains in effect for all of the
Florida Keys. The threat for coastal flooding has remained steady from
the previous advisory.

There will be the potential for isolated tornadoes from late tonight
through Wednesday and into Wednesday night.

Additional rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches are likely through
Wednesday night. Flooding of low elevation streets and poor drainage
areas will be possible in areas impacted by heavy downpours.

Small Craft Advisories will be required for all of the Keys
coastal waters Thursday night after the Tropical Storm Warnings
are lowered. Winds and seas will decrease below advisory levels
across most of the Keys waters on Friday, but lingering north
northeast swell across the eastern Straits of Florida will likely
require a Small Craft Advisory to continue there into Saturday
morning.

Otherwise, the forecast for Friday through Monday will feature a
return to quiet weather across the Florida Keys, with much
improved marine conditions.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.