NWS Philadelphia/Mount Holly wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jan 19, 5:16 AM EST, 14 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Jan 19, 5:16 AM EST, 14 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
516 AM EST Fri Jan 19 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure will deepen off the North Carolina coast today and
pass east of our region tonight. Strong high pressure build in
for the weekend and then moves offshore Monday. A front and a
few weak low pressure areas arrive for the midweek period.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
One area of low pressure is tracking eastward across Virginia early
this morning, while a stronger coastal low is lifting northeastward
off Cape Hatteras. Light snow is breaking out ahead and to the north
of the former low during the predawn hours across VA/MD and central
PA, with visibility already down below 1 mile in parts of the
Baltimore/DC area, and that snow will quickly spread across our
region from 5 to 8 AM this morning. While the snow is initially
fighting some lower level dry air, and will not begin really picking
up in intensity until mid to late morning, travel conditions during
the morning commute will become slick, especially on untreated
roads. Leave early, or telework if you can.
Aloft, an initial shortwave bringing vorticity advection with mid-
level forcing for the initial batch of snow heading in. This is also
supported by some weak lower-level isentropic lift, and aided by
diffluence farther aloft from the left-exit region of a strong upper-
level jet streak. That shortwave will pass by to our northeast this
afternoon, while the two areas of low pressure merge and intensify
well offshore. However, another more potent shortwave and vorticity
maximum will approach from the west this afternoon, with vorticity
and much colder air aloft phasing in from the upper-low over the
Great Lakes. As a result, a mid-level low will attempt to close off,
off the southern NJ coast this afternoon, after passing across the
Delmarva. That will support an inverted trough extending back from
the strengthening storm offshore. Frontogenetic forcing and lower-
level convergence associated with the low aloft and the surface
trough respectively will be the key for focusing steadier and
heavier snow today.
Since Thursday afternoon, the last couple runs of various model
guidance has made a distinct shift south with the axis of heavier
snow amounts, focusing the inverted trough extending westward from
Friday's coastal low back closer to the Delaware coast rather than
southern NJ. The initial steadier snow may set-up near the urban
corridor from Trenton southwest later this morning. Much of the
guidance suggests that the steadier snow will focus more on southern
NJ into Delaware at it's peak this afternoon, and linger there
longest as the coastal low pulls away, dragging the inverted trough
behind it. While higher snow ratios may make up the difference for a
bit less liquid equivalent precipitation along the northern edge of
the steadier snow, with the southerly shift in the guidance, we had
to lower amounts by an inch or two across the northern half of our
area.
Considered dropping Advisory around Morris and Sussex Co NJ, but
given some fairly rough conditions for the evening commute as colder
air work in, it can be justified from an impacts standpoint. Did
drop the Warning for Monmouth County, as amounts look to fall short
of the 6" threshold there. Considered dropping Bucks to an Advisory
as well, but amounts are near enough to 5" criteria to let it ride a
this point. Meanwhile, farther south along the NJ shore and into the
Delmarva, with winds expected to stay more northeasterly (rather
than SE as earlier models projected), any initial rain may shift
over to snow more quickly with less marine influence. Additionally,
the axis of stronger forcing shifted south there as well. Added Kent
County (both MD and DE) along with inland Atlantic and Cumberland
County NJ to the Winter Storm Warning. Latest snow amounts in the
warning area are somewhat marginal for reaching criteria, right
around 5". However, given the tendency for higher ratios, the
possibility that models are underdoing some mesoscale lifting
mechanisms (coastal convergence, low-level convergence along the
inverted trough, and mid-level frontogenesis), we expect some
localized amounts near or even over 6 inches. Sometimes we expect
too much accuracy from the model guidance QPF; it would only take
another 'surprise' 0.10-0.20 inches to exceed snowfall amounts by a
few inches.
While the snow may have a tendency to linger into this evening right
where the inverted trough sets up, probably near Delaware Bay,
forcing aloft will start to quickly diminish and progressively drier
air will filter in. Just about all guidance suggests any last bit of
snow will push off the coast by 9 PM.
Skies may partially clear tonight, but either way, strong cold air
advection will drive temperatures into the upper teens to near 20 by
the time the snow tapers off. Northwest winds around 10-15 mph with
occasional gusts will limit decoupling and radiational cooling, so
temperatures may only fall another few degrees by morning, but wind
chills will be in the single digits to near 0 through the night.
Expect travel conditions for the evening commute to be rather rough,
especially where snow lingers, and areas of blowing snow tonight
could keep road conditions rather slick, especially in open areas
and untreated, less-traveled, secondary roads.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
A cold weekend on tap for the middle of winter, but it will not last
too long. Arctic high pressure moves across the Great Plains region
Sat then pushes into the Middle Atlantic by Sunday evening. This
will bring dry/cold air on a gusty W/NW wind Sat and lasting into
Sunday. High temperatures will be teens/low 20s for the NW areas Sat
and mid/upper 20s elsewhere. Temps will climb 4 to 6 degrees Sun,
but still remain below normal. Wind chill values Sat will mostly be
in the single digits, but below zero for the Poconos. Winds chills
Sun will be mostly in the teens. So make sure you pack the layers if
you will be outdoors this weekend. Partly sunny for Sat, but mostly
sunny Sunday.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The arctic high will move away from the area Monday and once it
moves away, milder air will flood back across the region.
Temperatures will still be a bit below normal Mon, then reach back
to normal Tue. After that, above normal readings should settle in
for the remainder of the week. Much above normal readings are
possible by late week. By late week, another arctic high will be
settling across ern Canada, any southward surge of colder air could
bring normal or below normal temps for the NW areas.
The milder temperatures come with an abundance of clouds and rain at
times Tue thru Thu. Snow is possible for the far NW areas during the
overnight hours. Thu will feature the greatest chances for precip
with high chance/low likely pops for most areas. We'll watch of the
possibility of sleet/freezing rain for late week.
&&
.AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas...
Today...VFR to MVFR initially early this morning, but conditions will
head down quickly between 12 to 15Z as steadier snow pushes in.
IFR/LIFR in SN. Periods of possible RASN at KACY this morning.
Accumulating snow at all the TAF sites, with heavier snow and VSBY
less than 1/2 SM possible at times particularly PHL southward
heading toward midday through the afternoon. E-NE winds 5 to 10 kt,
becoming N after 18Z. High confidence.
Tonight...Conditions improve rather quickly from IFR to VFR in the
evening between 00Z and 06Z as snow pulls out to the east. NW winds
10 to 15 kt. Blowing snow possible at the terminals. High confidence.
Outlook...
Sat/Sat night... VFR. Gusty W to NW winds.
Sun/Sun night... VFR. Diminishing winds.
Mon/Mon night... VFR.
Tue/Tue night... VFR Tue, then restrictions possible Tue night
with light rain possible.
&&
.MARINE.
Sub-Small Craft Advisory conditions on the waters through the
daylight hours Friday. Variable winds at times early this morning
will quickly become ENE 10-15 kt, picking up to near 20 kt while
backing to the N by this evening as low pressure tracks offshore. NW
winds picking up tonight with gusts over 25 kt by the predawn hours
Saturday. A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for later tonight as a
result. Seas build to 3 to 5 feet on the ocean later tonight.
Freezing spray may become an issue tonight as winds pick up, with
temperatures dropping into the low to mid 20s.
VSBY restrictions in rain and/or snow starting this morning and
continuing into this evening.
Outlook...
Sat./Sat night... Gales expected with West to Northwest winds
gusting to 35 kts thru the period. Fair weather, but occasional
freezing spray probable. Very cold.
Sun/Sun night... SCA conditions as winds decrease to less than 25
kts by Mon morning. Fair weather. Cold.
Mon/Mon night... sub-SCA early then winds and seas developing Mon
afternoon into the evening with SCA gusts developing. Fair.
Tue/Wed... sub-SCA much of the time. Fair Tue then scattered showers
for Wed.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
During the winter season, you might see a sudden rise in water levels
when looking at a particular gauge on AHPS. You might even see a
gauge in flood. It might be a sudden spike or something that persists
and looks more choppy. For the majority of cases, this isn't a real
rise in the water level, but rather ice affecting the river gauge.
In addition, when the water level is running high and there's been
flooding, debris in the water can affect how a gauge responds.
With cold air upon us and high water in the channels, we noticed
this occurring today at a couple gauges. We do our best to eliminate
the "bad" data on AHPS and keep the hydrographs as clean as possible.
Just so there's no confusion or concern, at this time, no flooding
is expected across our forecast area.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...Winter Storm Warning until 10 PM EST this evening for PAZ070-
071-101-102-104-106.
Winter Weather Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for
PAZ054-055-060>062-103-105.
NJ...Winter Storm Warning until 10 PM EST this evening for
NJZ016>022-027.
Winter Weather Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for
NJZ001-007>010-012>015-023>026.
DE...Winter Storm Warning until 10 PM EST this evening for DEZ001-
002.
Winter Weather Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for
DEZ003.
MD...Winter Storm Warning until 10 PM EST this evening for MDZ012.
Winter Weather Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for
MDZ015-019-020.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM to 6 AM EST Saturday for ANZ430-
431.
Gale Warning from 6 AM Saturday to 6 AM EST Sunday for ANZ430-
431-450>455.
Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to 6 AM EST
Saturday for ANZ450>455.
&&
SYNOPSIS...OHara
NEAR TERM...Dodd
SHORT TERM...OHara
LONG TERM...OHara
AVIATION...Dodd/OHara
MARINE...Dodd/OHara
HYDROLOGY...