Lingering sub-tropical moisture remained in place with drier air moving in from the west as a low pressure trough passed though. Sufficient shear and enough moisture remained in place to allow for a few strong storms, one of which produced heavy rain rates over Gunnison County to result in debris flows in an area of steep terrain.
Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS GJT wrote it up.
Lingering sub-tropical moisture remained in place with drier air moving in from the west as a low pressure trough passed though. Sufficient shear and enough moisture remained in place to allow for a few strong storms, one of which produced heavy rain rates over Gunnison County to result in debris flows in an area of steep terrain.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Grand Junction, CO wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jun 28, 1:17 PM MST, 2 hours 13 minutes earlier. Its key messages:
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Junction CO 217 PM MDT Fri Jun 28 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Afternoon/evening showers and storms expected again today though coverage and intensity will be less than seen over the last few days. - Drier air moves in Saturday for a brief downturn in shower and storm activity though some convection is expected along the Continental Divide. Temperatures will run around 5 degrees above normal. - Deep subtropical moisture returns Sunday onward, with a return to widespread convection and increased chances for flash flooding. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... Issued at 204 PM MDT Fri Jun 28 2024 This mornings sounding reported 1.01 inches of PWAT here at the Grand Junction airport. This matches up fairly well with forecast amounts so subtropical moisture does continue to linger across eastern Utah and the Western Slope. Much drier air can be found to our north and west and has started advecting into the area, however. Despite this intrusion of drier air, we can still expect some afternoon showers and storms. Speaking of, cells have just started popping across the CWA as forecast by CAM models. Upper level support is lacking though there is some weak divergence aloft that will help with lift outside of daytime heating. SPC's Mesoanalysis Analysis page is highlighting widespread values of 500 to 1000 J/kg of CAPE, down from 1500 J/kg that was showing up in earlier model runs. This is good news as storms shouldn't be as strong as what we've seen over the past few days. The highest shear is found across the northern half of the CWA and also across much of eastern Utah. The 18Z HRRR run continues to show the best coverage to be north of the I-70 corridor though some cells do fire over eastern Utah and SW CO. In this environment, we will continue to see some hail, gusty outflow winds and heavy rainers though not as intense as what we experienced yesterday. The convection will continue into the early evening hours before starting to weaken. Thus, the Marginal Risk (5% chance for wind >= 58 mph and/or hail >= 1 inch) for severe thunderstorms issued by SPC for the northern half of our forecast area. Showers and a few storms will likely persist for an hour or two after midnight before dying off completely. PWATs finally drop down to 0.6 to 0.8 inches across the area for Saturday and CAM guidance is picking up on this downturn with less convective coverage. Having said that, the higher terrain will be favored for convective initiation with the San Juans and areas along and around the spine of the Continental Divide also being favored for showers and storms. The NBM agrees with slight chance to chance there (20 to 50%) along the Divide but little elsewhere. Probably underdone and may need to bring in the HRRR or NAMNEST to bump PoPs for the remaining higher terrain. Will change as needed. As the atmosphere will be drier than seen today, gusty surface winds will be probable along with some hail. Heavy rain will be possible as well, under and near the strongest convection, but widespread heavy rain appears less likely. Enjoy this reprieve, brief as it is, because the next surge of moisture starts Sunday. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... Issued at 204 PM MDT Fri Jun 28 2024 The persistent monsoonal regime stays put Sunday and Monday, along with the oblong high pressure anchored over the southern states. The pending arrival of a PACNW trough nudges the subtropical moisture plume eastward enough to keep some of our northern counties out of the crosshairs. This doesn't mean a dry forecast, because fringe moisture interacting with a strong southwesterly jet max Sunday afternoon should get things going on the terrain of the Tavaputs, Flat Tops, Elkheads, etc. up there. Meanwhile down south, where the moisture is best, there should be no problem with another round of robust convection around the Four Corners, Central Mountains and the San Juans. The trough axis works across the Great Basin Sunday night and should keep some active weather going during the overnight hours into Monday morning. Leftover cloud cover on Monday leaves some forecast uncertainty to the level of convective instability we might see. Moisture will remain abundant, as well as the presence of the dynamic forcing under the now broadened open wave working across the northern Rockies on Monday afternoon. For now, it's best to expect more monsoonal showers and thunderstorms for the forecast Monday and likely Tuesday too. Shower activity Tuesday looks to turn down as the upper trough moves eastward, kicking the subtropical return on the high back onto the Plains and thereby dries us back out under northwesterly flow spilling in from the PACNW. Another trailing wave ripples through Wednesday with little new moisture to work with. Remnant moisture will get worked on and likely spark a shower or two down in our southern counties and along the southern Divide again. A break in the unsettled weather pattern finally arrives in time for Fourth of July festivities as the trough on the Plains suppresses the high enough to shut off the monsoonal feed and introduce some dry air from the northwest. This trend holds for Friday and perhaps beyond as high pressure amplifies over the West. Temperatures surge upward Sunday before cloud cover and precipitation bring them down some Monday and Tuesday. The late week dry pattern should see the return of warmer conditions as well. The big wheel of the monsoon keeps turning. Stay tuned. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 1142 AM MDT Fri Jun 28 2024 Scattered mid clouds and VFR conditions will continue this morning and early afternoon ahead of some developing showers and thunderstorms expected to form on the terrain this afternoon. Winds will pick up from the southwest and gust to around 30 mph around the area. A few of the thunderstorms are expected to deliver their own strong winds. Storm coverage will be less widespread today and favor the terrain, with a few storms drifting into the valleys. TEMPO ceiling conditions are expected around showers, along with the chance for small hail. Skies will begin clearing around midnight and VFR conditions are expected to return by daybreak. && .GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CO...None. UT...None. && SHORT TERM...TGR LONG TERM...LTB AVIATION...TGJT
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Grand Junction CO 310 AM MDT Fri Jun 28 2024 COZ001>014-017>023-UTZ022>025-027>029-290915- Lower Yampa River Basin-Central Yampa River Basin- Roan and Tavaputs Plateaus-Elkhead and Park Mountains- Upper Yampa River Basin-Grand Valley-Debeque to Silt Corridor- Central Colorado River Basin-Grand and Battlement Mesas- Gore and Elk Mountains/Central Mountain Valleys- Central Gunnison and Uncompahgre River Basin- West Elk and Sawatch Mountains-Flat Tops-Upper Gunnison River Valley- Uncompahgre Plateau and Dallas Divide-Northwest San Juan Mountains- Southwest San Juan Mountains-Paradox Valley/Lower Dolores River- Four Corners/Upper Dolores River-Animas River Basin- San Juan River Basin-Southeast Utah-Eastern Uinta Mountains- Eastern Uinta Basin-Tavaputs Plateau-Arches/Grand Flat- La Sal and Abajo Mountains-Canyonlands/Natural Bridges- 310 AM MDT Fri Jun 28 2024 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northwest Colorado, southwest Colorado, west central Colorado, east central Utah, northeast Utah and southeast Utah. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. Deep subtropical moisture will fuel scattered to widespread showers and thunderstorms again today. Stronger storms will be focused north of I-70 and will be capable of producing gusty winds, heavy rain, frequent lightning, and hail. South of I-70, storms will be more tied to the terrain, but will also be capable of gusty winds, brief heavy rain, small hail, and frequent lightning. Showers and storms will taper off by midnight tonight. Localized flash flooding remains possible today. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday. Saturday will be the driest day as weak high pressure builds overhead, although enough moisture will linger to fire another round of showers and storms over the terrain. Areas along the Divide will be most favored. The next push of subtropical moisture looks to arrive on Sunday and will continue to impact the region through at least early next week, with a returning threat of heavy rain and flash flooding. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected today or tonight, however spotters are encouraged to relay rainfall amounts or any observed flooding to the National Weather Service in Grand Junction.
Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
241 PM MDT Fri Jun 28 2024
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0415 PM Flash Flood 1 ENE Gateway 38.69N 108.96W
06/27/2024 Mesa CO CO-OP Observer
1.18 inches of rain fell in about a half an
hour, causing flooding in the area.
Floodwaters moved wood and rocks into nearby
creek. Internet service was lost.
&&Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
248 PM MDT Fri Jun 28 2024
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0243 PM Hail 2 S Clifton 39.04N 108.47W
06/27/2024 E0.88 Inch Mesa CO CO-OP Observer
Hail damaged 30 percent of grape crop at CSU
extension center, with losses to vegetable
crop. Similar damage occurred a few miles to
the northeast, with lesser damage 1.5 miles
east. Auto gauge recorded 0.32 inches in 5
minutes, and 0.68 inches in 15 minutes.
&&Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
249 PM MDT Fri Jun 28 2024
COZ017-020-282115-
Uncompahgre Plateau/Dallas Divide CO-
Paradox Valley/Lower Dolores River CO-
249 PM MDT Fri Jun 28 2024
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHWESTERN MONTROSE COUNTY
THROUGH 315 PM MDT...
At 249 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 8
miles north of Slick Rock, or 22 miles east of La Sal, moving east at
10 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and half inch hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
possible.
Locations impacted include...
Nucla, Naturita, and Vancorum.
This includes the following highways...
Colorado 90 between mile markers 20 and 33.
Colorado 141 between mile markers 56 and 70.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.
&&
LAT...LON 3815 10892 3826 10893 3836 10852 3816 10849
TIME...MOT...LOC 2049Z 267DEG 10KT 3821 10887
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH
LTBSpecial Weather Statement
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
318 PM MDT Fri Jun 28 2024
COZ002-003-282145-
Roan and Tavaputs Plateaus CO-Central Yampa River Basin CO-
318 PM MDT Fri Jun 28 2024
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTH CENTRAL RIO BLANCO COUNTY
THROUGH 345 PM MDT...
At 317 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 20
miles east of Rangely, or 56 miles southwest of Craig, moving east at
30 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and half inch hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
possible.
This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of north central Rio
Blanco County.
This includes Colorado 64 between mile markers 52 and 65.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
&&
LAT...LON 3995 10854 4008 10852 4016 10808 3994 10811
TIME...MOT...LOC 2117Z 266DEG 28KT 4003 10841
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH
TGRSpecial Weather Statement
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
327 PM MDT Fri Jun 28 2024
COZ020-282200-
Paradox Valley/Lower Dolores River CO-
327 PM MDT Fri Jun 28 2024
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHWESTERN MONTROSE COUNTY
THROUGH 400 PM MDT...
At 327 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 9
miles west of Naturita, or 30 miles east of La Sal, moving east at 15
mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and half inch hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
possible.
Locations impacted include...
Naturita and Vancorum.
This includes the following highways...
Colorado 90 between mile markers 30 and 33.
Colorado 141 between mile markers 61 and 62.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.
&&
LAT...LON 3815 10879 3821 10876 3824 10855 3809 10861
TIME...MOT...LOC 2127Z 285DEG 13KT 3817 10873
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH
LBSpecial Weather Statement
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
418 PM MDT Fri Jun 28 2024
COZ002-003-013-282245-
Roan and Tavaputs Plateaus CO-Flat Tops CO-
Central Yampa River Basin CO-
418 PM MDT Fri Jun 28 2024
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT CENTRAL RIO BLANCO COUNTY
THROUGH 445 PM MDT...
At 418 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Meeker, or 43 miles northwest of Glenwood Springs, moving east at 25
mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and half inch hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
possible.
Locations impacted include...
Meeker.
This includes the following highways...
Colorado 13 between mile markers 28 and 44.
Colorado 64 between mile markers 66 and 67, and between mile markers
72 and 73.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.
&&
LAT...LON 3989 10816 4002 10810 4007 10774 3984 10783
TIME...MOT...LOC 2218Z 285DEG 20KT 3996 10795
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH
LBThe national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
1 debris flow. Local standard time, as filed.
A thunderstorm produced heavy rain over the Crystal River Drainage, which caused a mudslide on Highway 133 between mile markers 45 and 46 to the west of Marble, Colorado. Between 0.3 and 0.8 inches of rain was estimated on radar.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Colorado in 2024Every state in 2024This day in weather historyWarnings in Colorado, June 2024
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1204365.