Tornado and Damaging Winds in Missouri, June 28, 2024

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
645 PM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Strong to severe storms expected overnight, with damaging
  winds, large hail, and heavy rainfall being the main hazards.

- Temperatures cool temporarily going into the weekend.

- Very hot and humid conditions expected to return next Tuesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 106 PM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024

Early day storms and showers have mostly moved out of the region
at this point, leaving behind a cooler, moist airmass. Cloud
cover has persisted over much of eastern KS and MO throughout
the day, with some pockets evident on satellite. With these
conditions in place, the risk of severe weather tonight has
become more uncertain. This is in addition to the presence of a
strong capping inversion over the region. If cloudier
conditions continue, then the lack of warming to this airmass
may not destabilize it enough to create energetic storm modes.
However. with some clearing evident within the cloud shield,
there is a non-zero chance of severe development going into the
overnight hours.

With a cold frontal boundary forcing from a surface low and its
coincident upper level trough, a line of precipitation is set
to develop across NW MO and NE KS starting around the evening.
Models such as the NAM Nest and HRRR keep a line of storms
tracking over north-central MO, with the HREF keeping them
organized throughout the night. The likeliest period of impact
will begin at 7pm, with storms tracking southeast into midnight
tonight. Taking a look at forecast soundings before the line of
precipitation moves through, primary threats will be damaging
wind and large hail, with a layer of dry air aloft and a lower
freezing level. Lapse rates are forecast to remain lower around
6.5 degC/km, and forecasted shear values of 40-50 kts could
maintain stronger updrafts in any severe storms that form.
Irregardless of the severe threat, this line of storms will be
efficient precip producers (PWAT values ~2 inches across the
line), and will bring a threat of heavy rainfall to much of
central MO overnight. This will serve to exacerbate hydrologic
headlines in the region. By tomorrow morning, conditions should
become mostly clear as the complex exits towards the southeast
in full.

With the passage of this storm system, temperatures are expected
to fall in the upcoming days with the establishment of a surface
high bringing northerly winds and slightly cooler air to the
area. Afterwards, though, the propagation of this surface high
towards the east alongside its upper level ridge over the
southern CONUS will provide persistent southerly winds. With
these winds, temperatures are expected to rise once more to the
low 90s by early next week. Sporadic shortwave troughs embedded
within the upper level ridge's flow will bring more
opportunities for scattered precipitation moving into next week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 631 PM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024

Currently VFR at all terminals with southerly winds around 10
knots. Convection has initiated along the cold front over
eastern Kansas. These storms should progress eastward this
evening, likely impacting the terminals in the 2z to 7z time
frame tonight. There could be periods of heavy rain with VSBYs
dropping as low as IFR, along with a chance for hail and strong
wind gusts up to 55 knots. Winds should turn easterly and
eventually northerly by tomorrow morning, remaining at 10 knots
or less, with VFR conditions likely.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

DISCUSSION...CDB
AVIATION...BMW

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
513 AM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-291015-
Atchison KS-Miami-Linn KS-Doniphan-Leavenworth-Wyandotte-Johnson KS-
Atchison MO-Nodaway-Worth-Gentry-Harrison-Mercer-Putnam-Schuyler-
Holt-Andrew-De Kalb-Daviess-Grundy-Sullivan-Adair-Buchanan-Clinton-
Caldwell-Livingston-Linn MO-Macon-Platte-Clay-Ray-Carroll-Chariton-
Randolph-Jackson-Lafayette-Saline-Howard-Cass-Johnson MO-Pettis-
Cooper-Bates-Henry-
513 AM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024

This hazardous weather outlook is for northwest...north central and
west central Missouri...as well as extreme eastern Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Isolated strong thunderstorms are possible late this evening into
tonight.

 More detailed information can be accessed at...
 https://www.weather.gov/eax/hwo

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

No hazardous weather expected at this time.

 More detailed information can be accessed at...
 https://www.weather.gov/eax/hwo

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
850 PM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024

MOZ001-011-290215-
Atchison MO-Holt MO-
850 PM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN ATCHISON AND
NORTHWESTERN HOLT COUNTIES THROUGH 915 PM CDT...

At 849 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Fairfax, or 10 miles southwest of Tarkio, moving east at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Tarkio, Rock Port, Fairfax, Craig, and Corning.

This includes Interstate 29 between mile markers 89 and 111.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 1100 PM CDT for northwestern
Missouri.

&&

LAT...LON 4027 9518 4026 9516 4020 9516 4014 9543
      4019 9548 4022 9547 4024 9547 4027 9556
      4029 9555 4030 9557 4041 9559 4047 9518
TIME...MOT...LOC 0149Z 267DEG 18KT 4033 9550

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Mell