NWS Pueblo, CO wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Apr 6, 4:49 AM MST, 2 hours 11 minutes earlier. Its key messages:
Area forecast discussion, Apr 6, 4:49 AM MST, 2 hours 11 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
549 AM MDT Sat Apr 6 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Damaging winds possible across the Mountains and I-25
corridor late this afternoon through early tomorrow morning.
Worst winds expected overnight.
- Extreme fire weather conditions expected this afternoon
through early evening across portions of the plains. Blowing
dust will also be possible. Critical Fire Weather conditions
return Sunday.
- Blowing snow, heavy at times, will continue across higher
terrain. Snow squalls may occur early this morning over
southeastern mountains and possibly Pikes Peak Region/Rampart
Range, and Palmer Divide.
- Next storm system will bring more precipitation to southern CO
Tuesday though a more southerly storm track has trended
amounts down.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 356 AM MDT Sat Apr 6 2024
Today...
A look at the current radar imagery shows and band of more moderate
snow showers moving over the southeastern mountains, although the
rain-shadow effect is causing them to dissipate as they move over the
adjacent plains, and this will likely be the case throughout the day
as southeast Colorado looks to be dry slotted quite a bit in the mid
levels between 700-500 mb with more of the moisture advection
occurring further to the north.
A very dynamic major shortwave trough continues to advance towards
the region today. A bora front associated this system will continue
to move through the eastern half of the high terrain early this
morning, and provide the possibility of some convective showers and
even a few snow squalls, given the amount of forcing along the
boundary. The best location looks to be over the Sangre de Cristo
Mountains, although there may also be a possible snow squall develop
over the Pikes Peak Region/Rampart Range and/or Palmer Divide right
around daybreak. Surface winds have been very strong and gusty out
of the southwest and these will shift to out of the west after
passage of the front. On the backside of the low, winds will
continue to increase out of the west over the plains. These
downsloping winds will continue to dry out and adiabatically
warm up the lower levels, even with a cooler air mass in place
behind the front. Therefore, conditions will once again be
favorable for rapid fire growth and spread over a majority of
the plains by later this afternoon and through the early evening
hours before RH values recover back above the critical
threshold. Areas of blowing dust will also be possible.
Moreover, with the strength of these winds and occasional gusts
of 70 mph or greater, this would constitute extreme fire
weather conditions at times. It is imperative to avoid any
activities which could cause a spark with these conditions in
place later today!
By later this afternoon through early evening, there is going to be
a mountain wave establishing itself, which has been showing up as a
very strong signal on vertical cross sections across the
PPR/Rampart Range area, especially by 6 PM. The only caveat is
that the wave-induced critical layer does not occur until later
and is closer to the 500 mb level, vs the 400 mb level. Also,
that the inversion does not appear to be well-pronounced until
later in the evening, which does make sense given the amount of
mixing that is still occuring just before sunset. Despite this,
there is a strong indication that this will produce very strong
and gusty winds right along the mountain/plains interface,
mainly the Air Force Academy/Monument Hill area. Having said
this, some wind gusts may approach 90 mph for leeward side
(eastern facing slopes) of the Rampart Range. If traveling on
north to south oriented road, be advised that severe crosswinds
may occur, especially for high-profile vehicles along portions
of the northern I-25 corridor.
Even though there is a colder air mass moving in and temperatures
will be notably cooler today than they were yesterday, the
compressing and adiabatically warming winds will allow for
temperatures over the lower elevations to remain warm enough that
any precip should be in the form of rain, although if there is a
heavier and more convective shower or snow squall occur over the
Palmer Divide area, this could produce a quick burst of heavy and
accumulation of snow (although given the recent warm temperatures,
roads conditions might still be okay). Highs will max out in the
upper 50s to mid 60s over the plains, with generally 20s and 30s
across the higher terrain, except 40s in the valleys, and teens for
highest peaks.
Tonight...
The cross sections allude to a more strong signature for a mountain
wave event by later in the evening as a near-mountain top inversion
becomes more evident and reverse shear looks better between the 400-
500 mb level for the PPR/Ramparts after around 9 PM, which increases
confidence that there could be very strong and damaging winds right
along the mountain/plains interface with severe crosswinds at times
for north/south oriented. The most likely locations remain to be
over El Paso County, although there is some of the these signals
showing up further to the south for the Wets and southern Sangres,
even though it becomes more forward shear dominant the further south
you go. Still, there may be some very strong and damaging winds
possible over portions of the southern I-25 corridor as well. This
looks to continue throughout most of the night. On the other hand,
snow across the higher terrain will be winding down, as the surface
low continues to move further up towards the NE. There could still
be some wrap-around showers over portions of our northeastern plains
(mainly Kiowa County) early in the evening. Most of the snow will be
more confined to the central mountains by later in the evening and
then taper off more going into the early morning tomorrow. -Stewey
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 356 AM MDT Sat Apr 6 2024
Mountain wave parameters break down Sunday morning as atmosphere
becomes more unstable, and high winds are expected to come to
an end by noon. It will still be windy and dry through the
afternoon, and with critically low relative humidities still in
place, have hoisted Fire Weather Watches for most of the
southeast plains through early evening. Could still see
localized gusts to around 75 mph in the lee of the southeast
mountains through mid morning. Some isolated snow showers will
be possible across the central mountains, but the remainder of
the area will be dry.
Next upper low will be dropping southward into the Desert SW on
Monday. A cold front will push through southeast CO Sat night with a
broad upglide pattern setting up through the day on Monday as the
upper low gradually approaches and low levels slowly moisten.
We start to see an uptick in rain and mountain snow showers
Monday afternoon with some instability, but greater chances for
precipitation will spread in Monday night through Tuesday as the
upper low tracks across southern NM, and the northern stream
trough sends a reinforcing easterly push into southeast CO.
Overall the signal for heavier snow has decreased with a trend
towards a more southern storm track. Will continue to monitor.
Otherwise, that system will move out with drier and warmer
conditions returning late week. -KT
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 356 AM MDT Sat Apr 6 2024
VFR conditions are expected to prevail for all TAF sites (KALS,
KCOS, and KPUB) throughout the forecast period. WSCONDS are
currently ongoing for KALS due to lighter winds at the moment near
the surface, although this is expected to end by 14Z as surface
winds increase again. Winds will be synoptically influenced with
the low pressure system moving through, and very strong and gusty
out of the SW to NW at all terminals, possibly exceeding 50 kts at
times during the daytime hours today. Because of this, there
could be BLDU, which could temporarily reduce VIS to IFR or
possibly LIFR criteria this afternoon and through the early
evening. With VCSH this morning, if SHSN at KALS, or SHRA at KCOS
or KPUB occurs, it could temporarily reduce VIS down to IFR
conditions due to precip, however CIGs will likely remain high
enough to not be a concern. There is higher confidence of this
occurring at KALS early this morning, although improving
conditions with diminishing mid to upper level CIGs are
anticipated at all sites towards the end of the forecast period.
-Stewey
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory until midnight MDT tonight for COZ058-
060.
High Wind Warning from 8 AM this morning to 11 AM MDT Sunday
for COZ060>063-069-072>088.
Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM MDT this evening for COZ066-
068.
High Wind Warning from 8 AM this morning to 8 PM MDT this
evening for COZ070-071.
Winter Weather Advisory until noon MDT today for COZ073-075.
Red Flag Warning from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM MDT this
evening for COZ227>237.
Fire Weather Watch from Sunday morning through Sunday evening
for COZ227>237.
&&
SHORT TERM...STEWARD
LONG TERM...KT
AVIATION...HODANISH/STEWARD