California, 2024

High Wind in California, November 6, 2024

November 6, 2024 · NWS HNX · 2 events in 2 counties and zones

A strong pressure gradient developed during the evening of November 5 in between a strong upper low pressure system centered near the Four Corners area and a large high pressure ridge off the California coast. The strong gradient produced a period of gusty offshore winds over southern and eastern Kern County on November 6 with several stations the the Tehachapi and Grapevine areas as well as…

Where it happened

Every event with a place to put it; 2 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.

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The toll

Deaths
0
Injuries
0
Property damage
None recorded
Crop damage
None recorded
Events
2

Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.

What happened

The episode as NWS HNX wrote it up.

A strong pressure gradient developed during the evening of November 5 in between a strong upper low pressure system centered near the Four Corners area and a large high pressure ridge off the California coast. The strong gradient produced a period of gusty offshore winds over southern and eastern Kern County on November 6 with several stations the the Tehachapi and Grapevine areas as well as across the Mojave Deserts slopes and the desert areas measuring gusts in excess of 45 mph. The winds decreased during the morning of November 7 as gradients relaxed.

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Hanford, CA wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Nov 6, 2:46 AM PST, 4 hours 14 minutes earlier. Its key messages:

  • 1. There is a 50 to 95 percent probability of high temperatures of at least 70 degrees in the San Joaquin valley through Sunday before a cool down takes place on Veterans Day. 2. A Wind Advisory remains in effect through 1 PM Thursday afternoon for the Indian Wells Valley, Mojave slopes and Mojave desert. 3. There is a 25 to 45 percent probability of 0.10 inches of rain or more for the San Joaquin Valley on Veterans Day. 4. There is a 15 to 30 percent probability of greater than 6 inches of snow. This spans over 60 hours from Monday November 11th through Wednesday November 13th over the Sierra above 6000 feet.
Area forecast discussion, Nov 6, 2:46 AM PST, 4 hours 14 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hanford CA
246 AM PST Wed Nov 6 2024

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...

1. There is a 50 to 95 percent probability of high temperatures
of at least 70 degrees in the San Joaquin valley through Sunday
before a cool down takes place on Veterans Day.

2. A Wind Advisory remains in effect through 1 PM Thursday
afternoon for the Indian Wells Valley, Mojave slopes and Mojave
desert.

3. There is a 25 to 45 percent probability of 0.10 inches of
rain or more for the San Joaquin Valley on Veterans Day.

4. There is a 15 to 30 percent probability of greater than 6
inches of snow. This spans over 60 hours from Monday November
11th through Wednesday November 13th over the Sierra above 6000
feet.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

The upper low is splitting off the the main trough over the
Northern Plains and retrograding towards the Colorado River
Basin throughout the day today. This will help to continue to
tighten the gradient and ramp up the Mojave Slope and Kern
County Desert wind well into the advisory level. The probability
of exceeding 45 mph is 40 to 60 percent for the Mojave Slopes
that justifies keeping the advisory flying through Thursday at 1
PM. The upper heights slightly tweak up keeping the highs near
Tuesday's highs around 70. The 50 to 95 percent probability of
exceeding (PoE) 70 degrees seems very reasonable for the region
today.

Thursday through Sunday the upper low is enjoying its stay in
the Colorado River Basin locking up the upper flow for the
Golden State. The upper heights nudge up each day for a degree
or two warming when translating down to the surface. This is
because of the induced ridge between the Colorado River Basin
upper low and the upper low over the Gulf of Alaska. The wild
card is the tropical system in the Gulf of Mexico that could
play into the upper flow pattern to either keep the upper lows
locked up over the west or eject them and make the pattern more
progressive. The GEFS ensemble run-to-run upper pattern is
fairly consistent whereas the ECMWF ensemble is showing a faster
ejection with the run-to-run difference in upper heights rising
behind the upper low and digging a trough into the far eastern
Pacific. All that said, the translated weather for Interior
Central California will be seasonable on temperatures and dry
with very little wind. The PoE of 70 degrees remains the same in
the range of 50 to 95 percent for the San Joaquin Valley.

Late Saturday through next Wednesday comes a change in the
overall pattern with the upper trough becoming a closed upper
low by Monday over Baja California and another strong trough
moves through Northern and Central California. Focusing in on
Monday through Tuesday. A low end Atmospheric River is being
detected for the far northern section of the forecast area and
more so for points north of the region. The IVT levels just
squeak into the minimum of 250 kgm/sec levels for Yosemite Park
which is still in the 90th to 97th percentile. This is the part
of the GFS/GEFS solution vs. the ECMWF that does not support the
opinion of the GFS with much lower IVT levels and no
indication of any west to east tap of upper level integrated
moisture. The Extreme Forecast Index, a reflection of the EC
opinion, does not have anything special in the forecast. When
viewing the NBM probabilities from Monday through Tuesday is
currently 15 to 30 percent. The NBM deterministic solution does
support up to 12 inches at the highest levels. There is quite
the spread in solutions with this system and at the time frame
the best way to handle it is low confidence. Looking at
probabilities of near 100 percent the amount of snow falls to
only near measure tenth of an inch on the low end. Hopefully the
solutions come together better in the coming days. This system
also has the probability of producing more Mojave Slope and Kern
County Desert winds.

The 8 to 14 day from CPC indicates a trend to cooler and wetter
than normal for the region.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR conditions will prevail across the central CA
interior for the next 24 hours.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
ISSUED:  11/05/2024 15:58
EXPIRES: 11/06/2024 23:59
On Wednesday November 6 2024, Fireplace/Wood Stove Burning Status
is: No Burning Unless Registered in Fresno and Madera Counties.
Burning Discouraged in Kern, Kings, Merced, and Tulare Counties,
and Kern (Greater Frazier Park Area) and Sequoia National Park and
Forest.

&&

.CERTAINTY...

The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is medium.
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is low.

Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit
www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information
and/or to provide feedback.

&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory until 1 PM PST Thursday for CAZ337>339.
&&

Operations...Proton
DSS..........JPK

weather.gov/hanford

The radar

The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.

Open the radar archive at this moment

Event by event

2 high wind. Local standard time, as filed.

High Wind, Grapevine

When
November 6, 7:00 AM PST
Where
Grapevine forecast zone
Measured
51 kt (59 mph) measured gust
Reported by
Utility Company
Coordinates
35.343, -118.730 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

The PG&E station 5NW Lebec measures a peak wind gust of 59 mph.

High Wind, Tehachapi

When
November 6, 9:50 AM PST
Where
Tehachapi forecast zone
Measured
56 kt (64 mph) measured gust
Reported by
Utility Company
Coordinates
35.343, -118.730 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

The Southern California Edison station at Tejon Hills measures a peak wind gust of 65 mph.

What these are

High Wind
Sustained non-thunderstorm winds of 40 mph or more for an hour, or gusts of 58 mph or more.

After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.

The same day elsewhere

More

Every storm in California in 2024Every state in 2024This day in weather historyWarnings in California, November 2024

Sources

NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1215659, 1215660.